The Breakdown

Our guest today is Adam Tooze. Adam holds the Shelby Cullom Davis Chair of History at Columbia University and serves as director of its European Institute. He is known for his books “The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order” and “Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World.”  In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: Historical analogies for our present moment  Federal Reserve policy and independence  How much we should fear debt and inflation post-coronavirus  How the economic and political crisis of 2020 has changed or reinforced the trajectory of the U.S., China and Europe Why there is no such thing as the post-American era   Find our guest online: Website: Adamtooze.com Twitter: @adam_tooze  

On today’s edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, our selections have to do with one of the hottest topics in central banking: yield curve control.  “What Is Yield Curve Control?” The first piece is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and is a primer on YCC, including past U.S. implementations as well as versions from Japan and Australia.  “Market Jitters Show How Much Fed Medicine Matters” Our second piece is an op-ed about how dramatically markets reacted to this small detail from the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, and what it suggests for their desires involving YCC.

Today on The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap: People aren’t buying “the Great American Recovery” Let’s stop considering the economy as one thing Dave Portnoy doesn’t care about your principles DeFi is the Wild West and saved only by the fact that no normie understands what the hell is going on Bitcoin is being compared to the dollar not stocks and that’s serious progress

The “three-body problem” is a physics issue that deals with unpredictable futures.  In a recent essay, John Mauldin argues the economy is actually experiencing an “eight-body problem.”  On today’s episode, NLW explores each of those dimensions shaping the challenge we face, including: Central bank intervention The destruction of the service industry The implosion of global trade  In the end, he argues that in a world ruled by chaos, fighting to control the narrative might be the only rational move.  Read Ben Hunt’s essay “The Three-Body Problem”

Today on the Brief: Markets react to FOMC notes Taiwan blocks China streaming services Initial jobless claims back on the rise Our main discussion is a look at the politicians on both sides of the aisle who are pro-digital currencies and, especially, pro-bitcoin. Featuring: Rep. Thomas Massie Governor Jared Polis Andrew Yang Rep. Ted Budd Rep. Trey Hollingsworth Rep. Darren Soto Rep. Stacey Plaskett Rep. Tom Emmer Senate Candidate Cynthia Lummis Rep. Warren Davidson Rep. Patrick McHenry

Today, NLW debuts a new format: “10 Takes in 10(ish) Minutes.”  In this analysis, he looks at 10 takes surrounding the S&P 500’s return to positive territory on the year, including: Great American comeback Market disconnect and widening inequality  Don’t fight the Fed To the Stoolies go the spoils Stock splits and SPACs It’s Tech vs. everything else Cantillon insiders FTW A new era of global liquidity? You’d have done better with gold You’d have done a lot a lot better with bitcoin 

Today on the Brief: Everyone turns bullish as S&P 500 nears all-time highs Emerging market currencies are floundering  Bitcoin holding sentiment highest in two years Our main conversation features Race Capital’s Chris McCann. Chris was previously the founder of Startup Digest, building it to 1 million subscriptions long before email newsletters were a thing. He spent four years building the community program at Greylock before launching his own venture firm.  In this conversation, Chris and NLW discuss: The relationship between monetary policy and startup finance What changes in startup financing have followed COVID-19 What the emerging fintech stack looks like, outside of crypto Find our guest online: Website: Race Capital  Twitter: @mccannatron

There is perhaps nothing more important or contentious in macroeconomics right now than the question of inflation.  On the one hand, there is a growing concern that rapidly growing money supply and increasing central bank balance sheets will inevitably lead to inflationary pressures. On the other, critics of that point of view point to significant counterveiling forces such as the 10% unemployment rate and growing savings rate among consumers.  So who is right? What are the specific narratives trying to say?  What is the evidence and data actually telling us?  And how are real people experiencing inflation today?

Earlier this week, the Winklevoss brothers introduced Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy to bitcoin.  One of the notable parts of the recap video was a discussion of how Elon Musk was set to destroy the value of gold on Earth by mining gold from asteroids.  While much meme fun was had, on this week’s Long Reads Sunday NLW has chosen a selection that looks at how fiat beat out gold and how gold beat out silver to provide some – ahem – more immediately relevant lessons on how to explain the benefits of bitcoin.  Read:Projection and ThrownessPart III — Bitcoin’s 10x Advantage Over Gold Might Not Lie Where You Think By David Lawant 

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the strange melange of realities interacting in the new emerging bull market.  On the one hand, bitcoin has found narrative relevance and technical importance in a world of social unrest and increased state involvement in economies and citizens’ lives. On the other, insane financial engineering experiments are seeing three-quarters of a billion dollars in value locked up within hours before a bug sees it all go away.  In the middle, agents of chaos like new bitcoiner (and LINK-holder) Dave Portnoy.  This is going to get weirder before it gets more normal.