The Breakdown

Today on the Brief: Jobless claims down and retail sales up The U.S. Federal Reserve is running distributed ledger technology experiments  The end of an era, as BitMEX begins KYC Our main discussion: the big battle brewing between Epic Games and Apple/Google. NLW looks at: Why Fortnite got kicked off the Apple and Google app stores  Why Epic Games is suing in response Why this was all very clearly planned by Epic Games Why Apple and Google should be nervous about anti-trust  Why this is about a much bigger future than just a single game 

The Investor’s Podcast Network cofounder Preston Pysh last recorded with The Breakdown on Black Thursday in March. As NLW and Pysh discussed the potential of future currency crises, bitcoin smashed all the way below $4,000.  In the five months since, bitcoin has risen 200%. It has attracted the devotion of leading hedge funders such as Paul Tudor Jones II and more recently has become the reserve asset of choice of at least one publicly listed company.  In this conversation, Preston and NLW discuss: The significance of halving coinciding with central bank printing The inevitability of negative interest rates Why it’s the dollar, not the stock market, that is inversely correlated with the price of bitcoin Why Preston believes in the stock-to-flow model Who pays the price for inevitable currency debasement Why we’re dramatically underestimating the precedent set by MicroStrategy’s $250,000,000 cash-for-bitcoin reserve switch Why MicroStrategy will be worth 10 times what it is today a year from now  Find out guest online:Website: theinvestorspodcast.com Twitter: @PrestonPysh

Today on the Brief: WSJ study finds TikTok was tracking data in a way that broke Android rules The latest Core Inflation statistics  MicroStrategy stocks pops 10% after cash to bitcoin announcement Our main discussion: What’s the Ethereum #SupplyGate really about NLW breaks down: The historical narratives bitcoiners and ether advocates hold relative to one another The history of dominant narratives in crypto over the last three years Why the next bull market is poised for a twin narrative combining bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and DeFi as a money-making sandbox  What happened with #SupplyGate Why #SupplyGate is as much about narrative competition as it is about the supply of ether

Today on the Brief: A public company has switched $250 million in cash reserves to bitcoin The latest in the vaccine rumor trade with Vladimir Putin’s propaganda play  Hong Kongers use the stock market to protest Our main conversation is with former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry.  After a few years of focusing on a “volatility at the end of the world trade” in property development in St. Barth’s, the constant contrarian Hugh Hendry has returned to the macro world in a big way.  In this conversation, Hugh and NLW discuss: Why Hugh left macro, and why he came back How he lost three years being angry at the Fed How he came to be bullish on equities in 2012  How money managers become trapped by narratives  Why the Fed should actually be less, not more, conservative  Why we need someone like Joe Rogan as Fed chair    Find out guest online: Website: hughhendryofficial.com Twitter: @hendry_hugh  

Today on the Brief: Grayscale launches national digital asset TV ad campaign Rough times for oil as Saudi Aramco sees 73% decline in revenue Kodak crashes as government grant paused amid allegations of impropriety   Our main conversation is a look at the latest skirmishes between the United States and China, including: U.S. sanctions on Hong Kong leaders including Carrie Lam  Retaliatory Chinese sanctions on U.S. politicians  The arrest of a pro-democracy Hong Kong media tycoon Arrest warrants issued for six foreign Hong Kong democracy advocates  President Trump signs executive orders targeting TikTok and WeChat Twitter enters the race to buy TikTok before the Executive Order ban takes effect Impact on banks, the Hong Kong stock market and Huawei 

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads three pieces: Public Markets Don’t Matter Like They Used To - Matt Levine in Bloomberg A look at how public markets are less and less about accessing new capital and more about narrative and liquidity for early investors. Two Reasons Crypto’s Bull Market Is Coming - Anil Lulla on CoinDesk The next bull market isn’t just about the bitcoin-dollar devaluation narrative but about decentralized finance providing a solid place to redeploy existing crypto capital. The Business Behind Marshmello - Kevin Lee on Twitter The unlikely story of the world’s second-highest paid DJ, including a bet on anonymity, a viral billboard making fun of Instagram influencers, and a cultural cooking channel on YouTube.

This week’s Breakdown Weekly Recap is all about that vibe you’ve been feeling - that inescapable notion a new crypto bull market is afoot.  NLW looks at the evidence: Rising gold price Recirculation of crypto money out of zombie protocols  New growth in small holder addresses Demand from emerging market p2p markets    It’s just possible this new bull market isn’t just starting to be seen in narratives, but is also showing up in numbers.   

Mainstream financial media loves reporting the stock market like it's the only economic indicator that matters. On this episode, NLW breaks down 11 numbers that together tell a much more complete story, including: Record price of gold Square’s bitcoin revenue National debt as a percentage of GDP Fall of the Turkish lira  Price of coffee, sugar and cocoa Housing in auto demand Anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S.

Today on the Brief: Better news in the jobless claims this week A new bitcoin adoption cycle? A check in on Lebanon Our main conversation is with Dr. George Selgin.  Dr. Selgin is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives as well as Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Georgia.  In this eye-opening conversation, he and NLW go deep on the history, present and future of central banks, including: Why the Scottish and Canadian banking systems in the 19th century that central banks aren’t a prerequisite for stability Why the USA’s “free banking” system wasn’t free at all Why the instability in the late 19th century US banking system was caused by regulation, not the lack of a Fed Why the Fed’s first decades were a disaster Why the Fed gets more power when it underperforms  The problems with the Fed’s response to 2008 What lessons the Fed could have but didn’t learn between the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19  Find our guest online Website: Alt-M.org Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

Today on the Brief: Robinhood doubles quarterly trading revenue Square did $875 billion in bitcoin revenue in Q2 - up 600% YoY ADP report: 167,000 jobs added in July (instead of expected 1.2 million)  Our main conversation is with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.  Before building Hedgeye into a “no-excuses provider of real-time investment research and a premier online financial media company,” Keith worked at hedge funds including Carlyle Blue Wave Partners hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners and Dawson Herman Capital Management. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: Hedgeye’s “Full Cycle Investing” approach and GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) methodology  How the economy was in a period of slowing growth and slowing inflation before COVID-19 How we’ve moved into a stagflation period in response to the money printing prompted by the crisis Why bitcoin, gold, emerging market stocks and commodities are likely to thrive in this environment  Why most narratives are BS  Why the “Old Wall” media distracts rather than educates Check out our guest online: Website: Hedgeye.com  Twitter: @KeithMcCullough