The Breakdown

Today on the Brief: Traditional markets falter, led down by tech stocks Bitcoin falls under $11,000 for the first time since July Stablecoins mint $100m daily since mid-July Our main discussion is about DeFi’s “degens.” NLW talks about: The numbers behind DeFi’s recent run up What “degen” means in this context Why degen is in part a reaction to previous bitcoiner critiques of Ethereum  Why degen is (in even bigger part) a reaction to a no-yield, artificially low interest world

Today on the Brief: Debt will exceed U.S. GDP for the first time since 1946 SPACs in action! Decentralized exchange volume flippens centralized exchanges  Our main conversation is with Luke Gromen, founder of the Forest for the Trees consulting firm.  In this conversation, we discuss:  Chairman Powell’s speech and whether this is a true policy departure The evolving relationship between the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department What it would mean to get China to start “footing the bill”  The gold narrative Why stock price gains are unlikely to keep U.S. citizens satisfied with the economy for long Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

August has come to a close. In this recap and “best of” episode, NLW looks at the big themes that defined the month. Most notable was the discussion of inflation culminating in the Federal Reserve’s newly announced policy of average inflation targeting.  This episode featured commentary from: Tony Greer - Author, Morning Navigator  Keith McCullough - CEO, Hedgeye Chris McCann - General Partner, Race Capital Adam Tooze - Chair of History, Columbia University  George Selgin - Director at the Cato Institute Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives Hugh Hendry - Legend

Today’s episode of The Breakdown looks at the stories the stock market is trying to tell, including: New all time high in total market capitalization to GDP ratio (higher than dotcom bubble)  “No precedent for how high” valuations can go  Fed denies asset bubble; intimates it wouldn’t care about asset bubbles if full unemployment comes with it Bezos at $200,000,000,000 Percentage of stocks traded by individuals reaches all time high of 20% Robinhood leads in FTX complaints Buffett’s Japan trading firm bet  

This week’s episode of Long Reads Sunday is a reading of the latest essay from Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. The essay looks systematically at the problems of the slate of current store-of-value assets, including the U.S. dollar, oil and gold.  The brothers argue why those assets have, or are starting to have, value in their safe haven function, while bitcoin is on the rise.

On The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the shifting sands of the global economy. He says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this week was an argument that an era that began in the 1970s is now closing.  At the same time, he argues Powell did very little to provide a vision for what comes next. Instead, it is the alternative economic philosophies – Modern Monetary Theory on the one side, bitcoin on the other – that are attracting people for a different vision of the future.

Today on the Brief: Skepticism around Powell’s inflation prognostications The Tesla Stock Split Game China’s COVID-19 vaccine maker presses countries for early adoption Our main discussion: The Anxiety Index We live in an economy organized around consumption and perpetual growth. In that context, factors that cause consumers to be fearful, reduce spending, increase savings, move less and generally slow down can wreak havoc.  In this episode, NLW discusses four factors shaping and driving consumer anxiety, including: COVID-19 related concerns, both health and economic Monetary policy questions  U.S.-China tensions  Election insecurity 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke Thursday at the annual Jackson Hole conference convened by the Kansas City Fed, which was virtual this year due to COVID-19.  In the highly anticipated speech, Powell laid out a number of key changes to how the Fed approaches unemployment and inflation.  In this recap, NLW looks at how people reacted to the speech. On the one hand, there is disagreement between those who anticipate out of control inflation and those who think the Fed’s track record on achieving even modest inflation is abysmal. On the other, almost everyone seems to think the Fed appears run down, out of tools and increasingly looking to support from Congress.   

Today on the Brief  The SEC changes accredited investor rules  Fintech and crypto investor Ribbit Capital starts $350 million SPAC Previewing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Our main conversation is with Ruben Galindo, CEO and co-founder of Airtm. Airtm is a global dollar account that lets users anywhere access U.S. dollars, powered by cryptocurrency infrastructure and a P2P network.  The company is currently working with Juan Guaido’s opposition government in Venezeula to attempt to distribute $18 million in funds the U.S. seized from the Maduro dictatorship.  In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: How Airtm works outside of the traditional banking system Why people around the world are hungry for access to dollars  What the Health Heroes campaign is trying to achieve  How Guaido and Airtm are trying to work around the Maduro government’s attempt to suppress them Find our guest online:Website: airtm.comTwitter: @theairtm

Today’s episode of The Breakdown is an extended edition of the Brief. NLW discusses: The “COVID-19 vaccine trade” on Wall Street kicks markets higher The latest on TikTok vs. the U.S. and what it means for the U.S.-China relationship More companies move reserves from cash to bitcoin The final topic today looks at news that some large money market funds are shifting fees from users and taking the financial hit themselves. This creates a dynamic where only the largest companies can survive long term, and reflects a key unintended consequence of low interest rates.