The Breakdown

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW looks at recent statistics suggesting that, based on a comprehensive set of measures of well-being, U.S. citizens are worse off than they were a decade ago.  One potential explanation is the U.S.’ “USD Dutch Disease” - a peculiar set of consequences resulting from the role of the U.S. dollar in the world.  This week’s reading is “How to Diagnose Your Own Dutch Disease” from the Financial Times.

On this edition of the Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW looks at: The “holding pattern economy” – why stocks, jobs and central bank policy seem stuck in place Why Joe Biden’s China plan shows that, no matter who wins the presidential election, U.S. economic policy towards China is likely to get more aggressive The surveillance state gets stronger as Amazon appoints a former NSA head to its board of directors The SUSHI saga and why there’s no capitalism more savage than the competition in open source networks 

Tavi Costa is a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital. In this conversation with NLW, he discusses: The credit exhaustion moment in the engines of global growth The race to the bottom for fiat currencies The explosive moment for precious metals  Where bitcoin might fit in this larger framework  Find our guest online: Twitter: @TaviCosta Instagram: @TaviCostaMacro Website: https://www.crescat.net

Today on the Brief: Jobless claims slightly exceed expectations at 884,000 ECB keeps policy unchained; euro rises versus dollar  Survey: What’s the right way to understand the business and market cycle in the U.S. today?  Our main discussion: interest rates and the undermining of American resilience.  In this discussion, NLW looks at a number of artifacts of the low interest rate world, including: Increasing cost of child care  Declining share of total net worth held by bottom 50%  New startups using lottery tactics to incentivize savers

Today on the Brief: Markets recover slightly but vaccine trade falters as AstraZeneca pauses trials  Bitcoin and gold correlation increases sharply around dollar instability Mastercard launches simulation tools to help develop central bank digital currencies Our main discussion: Stan Druckenmiller speaks! NLW breaks down the famed investor’s interview with CNBC today, including:  The merging of the Fed and the Treasury Mania in financial assets  A growing fear of future inflation  Why the next three to five years are going to be extremely difficult

Today on the Brief: Stock market continues its descent Insider stock selling reached five-year high in August President Trump promises more aggressive decoupling from China Our main discussion: Investors and the BTC price dip. Over the last several weeks, bitcoin has pulled back from $12,400 to around $10,000. This dip has happened alongside a broader retracement in equities, led by falling tech stocks.  While some have levied correlation to equities as a failure of bitcoin, NLW argues this critique misunderstands the narrative that has driven accumulation from new holders over the last six months.   

On this special Labor Day edition of The Breakdown, NLW is doing a reading of Nic Carter’s most recent essay “The Crypto-Dollar Surge and the American Opportunity.” In it, Carter argues that rather than fight the tide, the U.S. government should accept and take advantage of its unique position in the emerging world of global crypto monies.

Earlier this week, news broke that David Graeber, author of influential works such as “Debt: The First 5000 Years,” had passed away.  In his memory, today’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of his 2013 piece “A Practical Utopian’s Guide to the Coming Collapse.”  In it, he argues the impact of the revolutionary period of the 1960s was much more profound than popular opinion has it, and that the age of revolution is far from complete.

On this episode of The Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the full story the stock markets are telling us about the economy, including: SoftBank unmasked as the “Nasdaq whale” playing the same options game with stocks as r/WallStreetBets The Tesla stock split game: Does this just mean it’s for n00bs and rubes?  The VIX shows November nervousness Can you hear it? As stocks slide, the money printer is revving again

Inspired by Michael Batnik’s “All Wrapped In One,” this episode examines eight moments from history that can help us make sense of one of the most chaotic years of our lives.  Income inequality of the Gilded Age The election of 1896 The pandemic of 1918 The economy of 1929 The social movements of the 1960s The stock market of 1987 The speculation of 1999 The housing market of 2006