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Odd Lots

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Apr 13, 2023 • 49min

Eight Months In, What Is Happening With Biden's CHIPS Act?

In August of last year, the White House signed the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, a bipartisan effort to bring more advanced semiconductor manufacturing onto US shores. Of course, it already has plenty of critics. There are concerns that the bill is being larded up with red tape, or non-core progressive priorities, that will undermine the bill. On this episode, we speak to two leaders playing key roles in the act's implementation. Mike Schmidt, director of the CHIPS Program Office, and Todd Fisher, the program's chief investment officer, join us to talk about the act's goals, what's been achieved so far, and why they believe it can succeed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Apr 10, 2023 • 48min

What Commercial Real Estate Stress Means for Banks and Bond Funds

In the last month or so, two macro risks have become top of mind for investors. One is the stability of regional banks. The other is the weakness in the commercial real estate market. On some level, they're separate stories, but they're also linked, since regional banks tend to do more commercial real estate lending than larger, national banks. Of course, the links are complicated. CRE is not a monolith — and banks are just one source of financing for CRE projects, alongside private credit funds, insurance companies and other sources of capital. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Jim Costello, chief economist for real assets at MSCI, about what to watch for.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Apr 6, 2023 • 56min

Nassim Taleb on What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers and Deadlift Maxis All Get Wrong

Nassim Taleb has never been shy about expressing his viewpoints on a wide range of topics. But lately he's been getting into verbal tussles with people who have long looked up to his wisdom. Whether it's Bitcoiners, venture capitalists, deadlifters, or anti-vaxxers, many people within these communities have admired his philosophy of antifragility. So why has he taken to arguing with them on Twitter? What exactly are they getting wrong about his ideas? And for that matter, why has he himself gotten into cycling lately? In this wide ranging conversation, the author of books such as Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness talks about all these topics and more — including how to think about reducing tail risk in one's own life. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Apr 3, 2023 • 42min

The NYC Landlord Who Says the "Golden Age" of Being a Landlord Is Over

For the most part, being a landlord, particularly in a major city, has been a good business to be in. Rents historically just go up — as do property prices. And there are multiple other ways to make money, as well. Plus, historically, politicians didn’t care much about the rights of renters, focusing much more on the concerns of homeowners. But the politics might be changing. And if the politics are changing, then the economics may change, too. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Ben Carlos Thypin, a residential and commercial landlord in New York City, who tells us the golden age of being a landlord is over and why he plans to get out of residential real estate completely.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Mar 30, 2023 • 36min

Matt King Sees a $1 Trillion Liquidity Drain Heading for Markets

One of the big mysteries in markets right now is why risk assets rallied so strongly into the new year even as policymakers were adamant that they would continue to go hard on inflation by raising rates. Sure, there have been some recent signs of a "soft" or even "no landing" scenario, but a lot of the price action seemed pretty dramatic, with investors dashing back to meme and tech stocks that were beaten down last year. Matt King, Citigroup strategist and Odd Lots favorite, has one explanation for the recent "dash for trash." He argues that even though many central banks around the world have announced that they're winding down several years of extraordinarily loose monetary policies, they've actually been adding liquidity to the financial system in recent months — almost $1 trillion of it. Now he says that extra liquidity is going away and it isn't at all clear if private businesses and investment will fill the gap.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Mar 27, 2023 • 41min

Betsy Cohen On Tech Investing and How SVB Failed Banking 101

The tech world is in a precarious moment. Valuations are down. The IPO window seems shut. SPACs are a thing of the past. And the industry's pre-eminent bank just went bust. So what now? Where are the opportunities and what should people look for? On this episode, we speak with Betsy Cohen, the veteran dealmaker, SPAC innovator, and the co-founder and chairman of investment firm Cohen Circle. We discuss the state of the tech market and how Silicon Valley Bank failed at Banking 101.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Mar 23, 2023 • 43min

Is It Time For Public Checking Accounts at the Fed?

When Silicon Valley Bank failed, the government stepped in and guaranteed that all accounts — even those well above the FDIC threshold for deposit insurance — would be made whole. So now people are wondering whether all accounts at every bank are implicitly guaranteed, regardless of their size. But if they are, then what is the point of private, for-profit retail banking? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Saule Omarova, a professor at Cornell Law School. She had been nominated by President Biden to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, but was forced to withdraw due to fierce opposition from the banking lobby. That opposition was based, in part, on her endorsement of public checking accounts at the Federal Reserve. But what was a seemingly "out there" view a year ago, is now firmly within the Overton Window of political possibilities. On this episode, we discuss the SVB disaster, what it means for banking, and the case for a public option.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Mar 20, 2023 • 43min

Where Stress Is Showing in the $20 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market

Markets are suddenly on edge due to strains in the financial system. But banks aren't the only source of stress. Pockets of the commercial real estate market — which is worth around $20 trillion — are showing cracks as well. Higher interest rates are one factor, but also a lot of commercial office space is still not at pre-Covid capacity levels, putting pressure on income. So where are the trouble spots? And who is holding the bag? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Rich Hill, head of real estate strategy & research at Cohen & Steers, about the state of the market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Mar 17, 2023 • 54min

What the Dramatic Boom in Zero-Day Options Means for Stocks

Zero- and one-day options give investors the ability to bet on the daily moves of the S&P 500. In recent months, both big institutional investors and retail traders have gotten in on the action, creating a boom in trading volumes of these short-lived contracts and sparking an intense debate over their effect on the market. So what exactly is driving their popularity and why are some Wall Street analysts so divided on whether such options will cause a rerun of the “volmageddon” that we saw back in early 2018 and that caused a big drop in stocks? Nomura Securities International Inc. strategist Charlie McElligott walks us through these new trading contracts, explaining how they work, why people are snapping them up, and what their impact on the market could be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Mar 16, 2023 • 49min

The Regulatory Blunder That Gave Us the Silicon Valley Bank Disaster

Whenever a major financial institution collapses and needs a bailout, it's easy to say, "Where were the regulators?" But that's only a useful question if you can pinpoint the specific regulatory choices that led to any particular situation. So what caused Silicon Valley Bank to implode? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Columbia Law School professor Lev Menand, who discusses the defanging of bank supervisors in the run-up to this fiasco. With proper oversight, someone might have caught and put a stop to the unique set of risks the bank was taking. But without proper oversight, they were encouraged to go for all-out growth, regardless of the ultimate social cost. We also discuss legislative changes over time that led to this buildup of risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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