Renowned trader Pierre Andurand discusses venturing into cocoa trading, citing extreme deficits and price surges. Topics include forming investment thesis, potential interest in soft commodities, parallels with oil market, and analyzing cocoa market dynamics. Insights on shortage and price movements in copper market, navigating uncertainty in oil prices, and factors influencing cocoa market behavior.
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Quick takeaways
Pierre Andurand transitioned from energy to cocoa market, foreseeing potential for price increases due to supply deficits.
Market timing and consumer behavior insights gained from personal experience of cocoa price surge affecting chocolate purchases.
Deep dives
Principal Asset Management's Unique Investment Approach
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A Lesson from Cocoa Prices Surge
A personal anecdote highlights the impact of cocoa price surges on consumer behavior. Despite predictions of rising prices, the speaker's attempt to purchase chocolate coincided with a market correction, leading to insights on market timing and consumer response.
Cocoa Market Supply Dynamics
Analysis of cocoa market reveals significant supply shortages with production declining 17%. Detailed examination of supply data from key exporters like Ivory Coast and Ghana underscores a deficit of 800,000 tons globally, driven by structural factors like weather patterns and disease outbreaks.
Insights on Commodity Price Dynamics
Discussion expands to include copper and oil markets, emphasizing the impact of supply-demand dynamics on price trajectories. Factors such as climate change, geopolitical events, and market structures shape short-term and long-term price outlooks for commodities like cocoa, copper, and oil.
Pierre Andurand made his name trading oil and other energy-related assets, but wild swings in the price of cocoa have recently lured the founder of Andurand Capital Management into a new market. He bet on cocoa earlier this year and saw the trade pay off as the price of the beans surged to a record $12,000 a ton. Prices have since fallen back to around $7,800, but Andurand sees scope for further upside as extreme deficits in the building blocks of chocolate loom. In this episode, we talk about how he entered the cocoa market, how he formed his investment thesis, and potential interest in other soft commodities, like coffee and orange juice. We also talk about copper, where a similar story of structural shortages is now playing out in prices.