The Loonie Hour

Join housing and macro analyst Ben Rabidoux as he shares insights on the Canadian real estate market. He discusses Toronto's plunging new home sales, the potential reintroduction of foreign buyers, and his bold prediction for 2026: a population decline impacting housing demand. Ben outlines how increasing rental vacancies and declining rents signal an oversupplied market. The conversation also dives into economic effects from slowed population growth and the implications of global currency volatility on investments.

Canada faces its first population decline in 80 years, with insights on falling real estate prices and rising vacancies. Developers are pivoting to rentals as housing demand shifts. A significant drop in home sales is reported, highlighting a mismatch between immigration rates and housing supply. The hosts explore the implications of zero population growth on rental markets, while also addressing recent challenges in private credit and Ford's retreat from its electric vehicle ambitions.

Jim Iuorio, a macro trader and commentator, joins to discuss the recent Fed rate cuts and the implications of the QE restart. He explains how the Fed’s actions, while not labeled as QE, are effectively increasing liquidity. Iuorio introduces his 'debasement portfolio' strategy, advocating for assets like gold and crypto to hedge against currency risks. The conversation touches on global reactions to US fiscal spending and trade dynamics with China, offering insights into the market's future amid evolving economic policies.

Heather Exner-Pirot, a renowned policy researcher specializing in Canadian energy and natural resources, joins the discussion to unpack Canada's potential commodities boom. She dives into the implications of the Alberta MOU, highlighting its promise for investors and the cautious optimism it brings. Heather also explores pipeline expansions, the challenges of carbon capture costs, and the pressing need for policy reforms to enhance BC's competitiveness in exports. With an eye on the future, she shares a bullish outlook for Canada's resource sectors, especially in mining and LNG.

Carney and Alberta strike a deal for a new oil pipeline, sparking discussions on its political implications and the economic benefits of attracting private investment. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan's potash expansion faces challenges with export routes. The podcast also critiques media narratives around immigration and productivity statistics while examining Toronto's housing market collapse and the broader impacts of inflation on affordability. The hosts dive into global debt issues and the potential of Canadian resources in international markets.

Home prices continue to decline despite an uptick in sales. British Columbia's cancellation of its EV sales target sparks a debate on hybrids versus full electric vehicles. Local real estate markets like Vancouver and Toronto face stubborn corrections despite national trends suggesting improvement. The backdrop of rising inflation and bond yields in Japan raises concerns about global economic stability. Hosts delve into the implications of these financial shifts, making for an insightful discussion.

Brian Kingston, President and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, discusses the future of Canada's auto sector amidst growing challenges. He highlights the difficulties of transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs), arguing that current mandates are premature and costly. Kingston digs into the competitive pressure from Chinese EV subsidies and the impact of tariffs on Canadian manufacturers. He also emphasizes the need for a robust local supply chain to leverage domestic resources, warning that inaction could shrink Canada's auto industry.

Sean Speer, a prominent Canadian public policy analyst and senior fellow at the University of Toronto, delves into Canada's recent federal budget. He critiques the $78B spending plan, questioning revenue assumptions amidst an unpredictable economy. Discussions include the impact of land claims on housing markets, rising employment insurance projections, and the delicate balance between defense spending and other priorities. Speer also addresses immigration's role in economic growth and potential pitfalls in investment strategies, providing a candid look at Canada's fiscal future.

The Bank of Canada and the Fed cut interest rates, raising concerns over the living standards in Canada. A land dispute involving the Richmond First Nations creates financing challenges for affected properties. Bill Gates shifts his climate change narrative towards pragmatic investments. The discussion tackles the implications of AI as either a technology breakthrough or a market bubble. Lastly, insights are shared on the upcoming federal budget and the impact of climate policies on food security and energy.

Inflation unexpectedly increased in September, raising concerns among market watchers. The hosts explore the complexities of housing affordability, noting a steep 18% drop in Canadian home prices yet persistent income gaps. They debate the implications of rising shelter costs and scrutinize StatsCan's measurement methods. Global economic pressures influence central banks' easing policies, while upcoming government debt rollovers could impact rates. The conversation touches on a proposed carbon tax on shipping, revealing friction in international politics.