The Loonie Hour The Race to Zero Resumes, Markets Bet on More Rate Cuts
22 snips
Sep 12, 2025 The hosts delve into impending interest rate cuts in Canada and the US, analyzing their impact on a fragile labor market that saw a job loss of 65,000. They discuss the backlash against temporary foreign workers amid rising unemployment rates. Listeners are updated on the latest US inflation trends and the absence of crucial oil pipelines in national infrastructure plans. Personal anecdotes from adventures in the Swiss Alps add a lighthearted touch, contrasting with serious economic discussions.
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Markets Pricing A BoC Cut
- Markets moved to price a Bank of Canada cut with odds rising near 80% ahead of the Sept 17 meeting.
- Hosts expect a 25bps cut and debate more cuts ahead as labour data weakens.
Focus On Participation, Not Just Unemployment
- Watch participation and long-duration labour trends, not just the headline unemployment rate.
- Use declining prime-age participation as a warning that labour slack is worsening and may be disinflationary.
Jobs Trend Driving Political Backlash
- Canadian employment shows a clear downward trend with back-to-back monthly job losses and rising long-term unemployment.
- That deterioration helps explain political backlash against temporary foreign worker programs.