The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Good Sunday morning to you,I am just on a train home from Glasgow, where I have been gigging these past two nights. I’ve had a great time, as I always seem to do when I go north of the wall.But Glasgow on a Saturday night is something else. My hotel was right next to the station and so I was right in the thick of it. If I ever get to make a cacatopian, end-of-days, post-apocalyptic thriller, I’ll just stroll through Glasgow city centre on a Friday or Saturday night with a camera to get all the B roll. It was like walking through a Hieronymus Bosch painting only with a Scottish accent. Little seems to have changed since I wrote that infamous chapter about Glasgow in Life After the State all those years ago. The only difference is that now it’s more multi-ethnic. So many people are so off their heads. I lost count of the number of randoms wandering about just howling at the stars. The long days - it was still light at 10 o’clock - make the insanity all the more visible. Part of me finds it funny, but another part of me finds it so very sad that so many people let themselves get into this condition. It prompted me to revisit said chapter, and I offer it today as your Sunday thought piece.Just a couple of little notes, before we begin. This caught my eye on Friday. Our favourite uranium tech company, Lightbridge Fuels (NASDAQ:LTBR), has taken off again with Donald Trump’s statement that he is going to quadruple US nuclear capacity. The stock was up 45% in a day. We first looked at it in October at $3. It hit $15 on Friday. It’s one to sell on the spikes and buy on the dips, as this incredible chart shows.(In other news I have now listened twice to the Comstock Lode AGM, and I’ll report back on that shortly too). ICYMI here is my mid-week commentary, which attracted a lot of attentionRight - Glasgow.(NB I haven’t included references here. Needless to say, they are all there in the book. And sorry I don’t have access to the audio of me reading this from my laptop, but, if you like, you can get the audiobook at Audible, Apple Books and all good audiobookshops. The book itself available at Amazon, Apple Books et al).How the Most Entrepreneurial City in Europe Became Its SickestThe cause of waves of unemployment is not capitalism, but governments …Friedrich Hayek, economist and philosopherIn the 18th and 19th centuries, the city of Glasgow in Scotland became enormously, stupendously rich. It happened quite organically, without planning. An entrepreneurial people reacted to their circumstances and, over time, turned Glasgow into an industrial and economic centre of such might that, by the turn of the 20th century, Glasgow was producing half the tonnage of Britain’s ships and a quarter of all locomotives in the world. (Not unlike China’s industrial dominance today). It was regarded as the best-governed city in Europe and popular histories compared it to the great imperial cities of Venice and Rome. It became known as the ‘Second City of the British Empire’.Barely 100 years later, it is the heroin capital of the UK, the murder capital of the UK and its East End, once home to Europe’s largest steelworks, has been dubbed ‘the benefits capital of the UK’. Glasgow is Britain’s fattest city: its men have Britain’s lowest life expectancy – on a par with Palestine and Albania – and its unemployment rate is 50% higher than the rest of the UK.How did Glasgow manage all that?The growth in Glasgow’s economic fortunes began in the latter part of the 17th century and the early 18th century. First, the city’s location in the west of Scotland at the mouth of the river Clyde meant that it lay in the path of the trade winds and at least 100 nautical miles closer to America’s east coast than other British ports – 200 miles closer than London. In the days before fossil fuels (which only found widespread use in shipping in the second half of the 19th century) the journey to Virginia was some two weeks shorter than the same journey from London or many of the other ports in Britain and Europe. Even modern sailors describe how easy the port of Glasgow is to navigate. Second, when England was at war with France – as it was repeatedly between 1688 and 1815 – ships travelling to Glasgow were less vulnerable than those travelling to ports further south. Glasgow’s merchants took advantage and, by the early 18th century, the city had begun to assert itself as a trading hub. Manufactured goods were carried from Britain and Europe to North America and the Caribbean, where they were traded for increasingly popular commodities such as tobacco, cotton and sugar.Through the 18th century, the Glasgow merchants’ business networks spread, and they took steps to further accelerate trade. New ships were introduced, bigger than those of rival ports, with fore and aft sails that enabled them to sail closer to the wind and reduce journey times. Trading posts were built to ensure that cargo was gathered and stored for collection, so that ships wouldn’t swing idly at anchor. By the 1760s Glasgow had a 50% share of the tobacco trade – as much as the rest of Britain’s ports combined. While the English merchants simply sold American tobacco in Europe at a profit, the Glaswegians actually extended credit to American farmers against future production (a bit like a crop future today, where a crop to be grown at a later date is sold now). The Virginia farmers could then use this credit to buy European goods, which the Glaswegians were only too happy to supply. This brought about the rise of financial institutions such as the Glasgow Ship Bank and the Glasgow Thistle Bank, which would later become part of the now-bailed-out, taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).Their practices paid rewards. Glasgow’s merchants earned a great deal of money. They built glamorous homes and large churches and, it seems, took on aristocratic airs – hence they became known as the ‘Tobacco Lords’. Numbering among them were Buchanan, Dunlop, Ingram, Wilson, Oswald, Cochrane and Glassford, all of whom had streets in the Merchant City district of Glasgow named after them (other streets, such as Virginia Street and Jamaica Street, refer to their trade destinations). In 1771, over 47 million pounds of tobacco were imported.However, the credit the Glaswegians extended to American tobacco farmers would backfire. The debts incurred by the tobacco farmers – which included future presidents George Washington and Thomas Jefferson (who almost lost his farm as a result) – grew, and were among the grievances when the American War of Independence came in 1775. That war destroyed the tobacco trade for the Glaswegians. Much of the money that was owed to them was never repaid. Many of their plantations were lost. But the Glaswegians were entrepreneurial and they adapted. They moved on to other businesses, particularly cotton.By the 19th century, all sorts of local industry had emerged around the goods traded in the city. It was producing and exporting textiles, chemicals, engineered goods and steel. River engineering projects to dredge and deepen the Clyde (with a view to forming a deep- water port) had begun in 1768 and they would enable shipbuilding to become a major industry on the upper reaches of the river, pioneered by industrialists such as Robert Napier and John Elder. The final stretch of the Monkland Canal, linking the Forth and Clyde Canal at Port Dundas, was opened in 1795, facilitating access to the iron-ore and coal mines of Lanarkshire.The move to fossil-fuelled shipping in the latter 19th century destroyed the advantages that the trade winds had given Glasgow. But it didn’t matter. Again, the people adapted. By the turn of the 20th century the Second City of the British Empire had become a world centre of industry and heavy engineering. It has been estimated that, between 1870 and 1914, it produced as much as one-fifth of the world’s ships, and half of Britain’s tonnage. Among the 25,000 ships it produced were some of the greatest ever built: the Cutty Sark, the Queen Mary, HMS Hood, the Lusitania, the Glenlee tall ship and even the iconic Mississippi paddle steamer, the Delta Queen. It had also become a centre for locomotive manufacture and, shortly after the turn of the 20th century, could boast the largest concentration of locomotive building works in Europe.It was not just Glasgow’s industry and wealth that was so gargantuan. The city’s contribution to mankind – made possible by the innovation and progress that comes with booming economies – would also have an international impact. Many great inventors either hailed from Glasgow or moved there to study or work. There’s James Watt, for example, whose improvements to the steam engine were fundamental to the Industrial Revolution. One of Watt’s employees, William Murdoch, has been dubbed ‘the Scot who lit the world’ – he invented gas lighting, a new kind of steam cannon and waterproof paint. Charles MacIntosh gave us the raincoat. James Young, the chemist dubbed as ‘the father of the oil industry’, gave us paraffin. William Thomson, known as Lord Kelvin, developed the science of thermodynamics, formulating the Kelvin scale of absolute temperature; he also managed the laying of the first transatlantic telegraph cable.The turning point in the economic fortunes of Glasgow – indeed, of industrial Britain – was WWI. Both have been in decline ever since. By the end of the war, the British were drained, both emotionally and in terms of capital and manpower; the workers, the entrepreneurs, the ideas men, too many of them were dead or incapacitated. There was insufficient money and no appetite to invest. The post-war recession, and later the Great Depression, did little to help. The trend of the city was now one of inexorable economic decline.If Glasgow was the home of shipping and industry in 19th-century Britain, it became the home of socialism in the 20th century. Known by some as the ‘Red Clydeside’ movement, the socialist tide in Scotland actually pre-dated the First World War. In 1906 came the city’s first Labour Member of Parliament (MP), George Barnes – prior to that its seven MPs were all Conservatives or Liberal Unionists. In the spring of 1911, 11,000 workers at the Singer sewing-machine factory (run by an American corporation in Clydebank) went on strike to support 12 women who were protesting about new work practices. Singer sacked 400 workers, but the movement was growing – as was labour unrest. In the four years between 1910 and 1914 Clydebank workers spent four times as many days on strike than in the whole of the previous decade. The Scottish Trades Union Congress and its affiliations saw membership rise from 129,000 in 1909 to 230,000 in 1914.20The rise in discontent had much to do with Glasgow’s housing. Conditions were bad, there was overcrowding, bad sanitation, housing was close to dirty, noxious and deafening industry. Unions grew quite organically to protect the interests of their members.Then came WWI, and inflation, as Britain all but abandoned gold. In 1915 many landlords responded by attempting to increase rent, but with their young men on the Western front, those left behind didn’t have the means to pay these higher costs. If they couldn’t, eviction soon followed. In Govan, an area of Glasgow where shipbuilding was the main occupation, women – now in the majority with so many men gone – organized opposition to the rent increases. There are photographs showing women blocking the entrance to tenements; officers who did get inside to evict tenants are said to have had their trousers pulled down.The landlords were attacked for being unpatriotic. Placards read: ‘While our men are fighting on the front line,the landlord is attacking us at home.’ The strikes spread to other cities throughout the UK, and on 27 November 1915 the government introduced legislation to restrict rents to the pre-war level. The strikers were placated. They had won. The government was happy; it had dealt with the problem. The landlords lost out.In the aftermath of the Russian Revolution of 1917, more frequent strikes crippled the city. In 1919 the ‘Bloody Friday’ uprising prompted the prime minister, David Lloyd George, to deploy 10,000 troops and tanks onto the city’s streets. By the 1930s Glasgow had become the main base of the Independent Labour Party, so when Labour finally came to power alone after WWII, its influence was strong. Glasgow has always remained a socialist stronghold. Labour dominates the city council, and the city has not had a Conservative MP for 30 years.By the late 1950s, Glasgow was losing out to the more competitive industries of Japan, Germany and elsewhere. There was a lack of investment. Union demands for workers, enforced by government legislation, made costs uneconomic and entrepreneurial activity arduous. With lack of investment came lack of innovation.Rapid de-industrialization followed, and by the 1960s and 70s most employment lay not in manufacturing, but in the service industries.Which brings us to today. On the plus side, Glasgow is still ranked as one of Europe’s top 20 financial centres and is home to some leading Scottish businesses. But there is considerable downside.Recent studies have suggested that nearly 30% of Glasgow’s working age population is unemployed. That’s 50% higher than that of the rest of Scotland or the UK. Eighteen per cent of 16- to 19-year-olds are neither in school nor employed. More than one in five working-age Glaswegians have no sort of education that might qualify them for a job.In the city centre, the Merchant City, 50% of children are growing up in homes where nobody works. In the poorer neighbourhoods, such as Ruchill, Possilpark, or Dalmarnock, about 65% of children live in homes where nobody works – more than three times the national average. Figures from the Department of Work and Pensions show that 85% of working age adults from the district of Bridgeton claim some kind of welfare payment.Across the city, almost a third of the population regularly receives sickness or incapacity benefit, the highest rate of all UK cities. A 2008 World Health Organization report noted that in Glasgow’s Calton, Bridgeton and Queenslie neighbourhoods, the average life expectancy for males is only 54. In contrast, residents of Glasgow’s more affluent West End live to be 80 and virtually none of them are on the dole.Glasgow has the highest crime rate in Scotland. A recent report by the Centre for Social Justice noted that there are 170 teenage gangs in Glasgow. That’s the same number as in London, which has over six times the population of Glasgow.It also has the dubious record of being Britain’s murder capital. In fact, Glasgow had the highest homicide rate in Western Europe until it was overtaken in 2012 by Amsterdam, with more violent crime per head of population than even New York. What’s more, its suicide rate is the highest in the UK.Then there are the drug and alcohol problems. The residents of the poorer neighbourhoods are an astounding six times more likely to die of a drugs overdose than the national average. Drug-related mortality has increased by 95% since 1997. There are 20,000 registered drug users – that’s just registered – and the situation is not going to get any better: children who grow up in households where family members use drugs are seven times more likely to end up using drugs themselves than children who live in drug-free families.Glasgow has the highest incidence of liver diseases from alcohol abuse in all of Scotland. In the East End district of Dennistoun, these illnesses kill more people than heart attacks and lung cancer combined. Men and women are more likely to die of alcohol-related deaths in Glasgow than anywhere else in the UK. Time and time again Glasgow is proud winner of the title ‘Fattest City in Britain’. Around 40% of the population are obese – 5% morbidly so – and it also boasts the most smokers per capita.I have taken these statistics from an array of different sources. It might be in some cases that they’re overstated. I know that I’ve accentuated both the 18th- and 19th-century positives, as well as the 20th- and 21st-century negatives to make my point. Of course, there are lots of healthy, happy people in Glasgow – I’ve done many gigs there and I loved it. Despite the stories you hear about intimidating Glasgow audiences, the ones I encountered were as good as any I’ve ever performed in front of. But none of this changes the broad-brush strokes: Glasgow was a once mighty city that now has grave social problems. It is a city that is not fulfilling its potential in the way that it once did. All in all, it’s quite a transformation. How has it happened?Every few years a report comes out that highlights Glasgow’s various problems. Comments are then sought from across the political spectrum. Usually, those asked to comment agree that the city has grave, ‘long-standing and deep-rooted social problems’ (the words of Stephen Purcell, former leader of Glasgow City Council); they agree that something needs to be done, though they don’t always agree on what that something is.There’s the view from the right: Bill Aitken of the Scottish Conservatives, quoted in The Sunday Times in 2008, said, ‘We simply don’t have the jobs for people who are not academically inclined. Another factor is that some people are simply disinclined to work. We have got to find something for these people to do, to give them a reason to get up in the morning and give them some self-respect.’ There’s the supposedly apolitical view of anti-poverty groups: Peter Kelly, director of the Glasgow-based Poverty Alliance, responded, ‘We need real, intensive support for people if we are going to tackle poverty. It’s not about a lack of aspiration, often people who are unemployed or on low incomes are stymied by a lack of money and support from local and central government.’ And there’s the view from the left. In the same article, Patricia Ferguson, the Labour Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for Maryhill, also declared a belief in government regeneration of the area. ‘It’s about better housing, more jobs, better education and these things take years to make an impact. I believe that the huge regeneration in the area is fostering a lot more community involvement and cohesion. My real hope is that these figures will take a knock in the next five or ten years.’ At the time of writing in 2013, five years later, the figures have worsened.All three points of view agree on one thing: the government must do something.In 2008 the £435 million Fairer Scotland Fund – established to tackle poverty – was unveiled, aiming to allocate cash to the country’s most deprived communities. Its targets included increasing average income among lower wage-earners and narrowing the poverty gap between Scotland’s best- and worst-performing regions by 2017. So far, it hasn’t met those targets.In 2008 a report entitled ‘Power for The Public’ examined the provision of health, education and justice in Scotland. It said the budgets for these three areas had grown by 55%, 87% and 44% respectively over the last decade, but added that this had produced ‘mixed results’. ‘Mixed results’ means it didn’t work. More money was spent and the figures got worse.After the Centre for Social Justice report on Glasgow in 2008, Iain Duncan Smith (who set up this think tank, and is now the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions) said, ‘Policy must deal with the pathways to breakdown – high levels of family breakdown, high levels of failed education, debt and unemployment.’So what are ‘pathways to breakdown’? If you were to look at a chart of Glasgow’s prosperity relative to the rest of the world, its peak would have come somewhere around 1910. With the onset of WWI in 1914 its decline accelerated, and since then the falls have been relentless and inexorable. It’s not just Glasgow that would have this chart pattern, but the whole of industrial Britain. What changed the trend? Yes, empires rise and fall, but was British decline all a consequence of WWI? Or was there something else?A seismic shift came with that war – a change which is very rarely spoken or written about. Actually, the change was gradual and it pre-dated 1914. It was a change that was sweeping through the West: that of government or state involvement in our lives. In the UK it began with the reforms of the Liberal government of 1906–14, championed by David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill, known as the ‘terrible twins’ by contemporaries. The Pensions Act of 1908, the People’s Budget of 1909–10 (to ‘wage implacable warfare against poverty’, declared Lloyd George) and the National Insurance Act of 1911 saw the Liberal government moving away from its tradition of laissez-faire systems – from classical liberalism and Gladstonian principles of self-help and self-reliance – towards larger, more active government by which taxes were collected from the wealthy and the proceeds redistributed. Afraid of losing votes to the emerging Labour party and the increasingly popular ideology of socialism, modern liberals betrayed their classical principles. In his War Memoirs, Lloyd George said ‘the partisan warfare that raged around these topics was so fierce that by 1913, this country was brought to the verge of civil war’. But these were small steps. The Pensions Act, for example, meant that men aged 70 and above could claim between two and five shillings per week from the government. But average male life- expectancy then was 47. Today it’s 77. Using the same ratio, and, yes, I’m manipulating statistics here, that’s akin to only awarding pensions to people above the age 117 today. Back then it was workable.To go back to my analogy of the prologue, this period was when the ‘train’ was set in motion across the West. In 1914 it went up a gear. Here are the opening paragraphs of historian A. J. P. Taylor’s most celebrated book, English History 1914–1945, published in 1965.I quote this long passage in full, because it is so telling.Until August 1914 a sensible, law-abiding Englishman could pass through life and hardly notice the existence of the state, beyond the post office and the policeman. He could live where he liked and as he liked. He had no official number or identity card. He could travel abroad or leave his country forever without a passport or any sort of official permission. He could exchange his money for any other currency without restriction or limit. He could buy goods from any country in the world on the same terms as he bought goods at home. For that matter, a foreigner could spend his life in this country without permit and without informing the police. Unlike the countries of the European continent, the state did not require its citizens to perform military service. An Englishman could enlist, if he chose, in the regular army, the navy, or the territorials. He could also ignore, if he chose, the demands of national defence. Substantial householders were occasionally called on for jury service. Otherwise, only those helped the state, who wished to do so. The Englishman paid taxes on a modest scale: nearly £200 million in 1913–14, or rather less than 8% of the national income.The state intervened to prevent the citizen from eating adulterated food or contracting certain infectious diseases. It imposed safety rules in factories, and prevented women, and adult males in some industries,from working excessive hours.The state saw to it that children received education up to the age of 13. Since 1 January 1909, it provided a meagre pension for the needy over the age of 70. Since 1911, it helped to insure certain classes of workers against sickness and unemployment. This tendency towards more state action was increasing. Expenditure on the social services had roughly doubled since the Liberals took office in 1905. Still, broadly speaking, the state acted only to help those who could not help themselves. It left the adult citizen alone.All this was changed by the impact of the Great War. The mass of the people became, for the first time, active citizens. Their lives were shaped by orders from above; they were required to serve the state instead of pursuing exclusively their own affairs. Five million men entered the armed forces, many of them (though a minority) under compulsion. The Englishman’s food was limited, and its quality changed, by government order. His freedom of movement was restricted; his conditions of work prescribed. Some industries were reduced or closed, others artificially fostered. The publication of news was fettered. Street lights were dimmed. The sacred freedom of drinking was tampered with: licensed hours were cut down, and the beer watered by order. The very time on the clocks was changed. From 1916 onwards, every Englishman got up an hour earlier in summer than he would otherwise have done, thanks to an act of parliament. The state established a hold over its citizens which, though relaxed in peacetime, was never to be removed and which the Second World war was again to increase. The history of the English state and of the English people merged for the first time.Since the beginning of WWI , the role that the state has played in our lives has not stopped growing. This has been especially so in the case of Glasgow. The state has spent more and more, provided more and more services, more subsidy, more education, more health care, more infrastructure, more accommodation, more benefits, more regulations, more laws, more protection. The more it has provided, the worse Glasgow has fared. Is this correlation a coincidence? I don’t think so.The story of the rise and fall of Glasgow is a distilled version of the story of the rise and fall of industrial Britain – indeed the entire industrial West. In the next chapter I’m going to show you a simple mistake that goes on being made; a dynamic by which the state, whose very aim was to help Glasgow, has actually been its ‘pathway to breakdown’ . . .Life After the State is available at Amazon, Apple Books and all good bookshops, with the audiobook at Audible, Apple Books and all good audiobookshops. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Tell your friends about this vid.You’ll find the full list of North Sea Oil Cos here, in the second half of the article:Subscribe to this wonderful publication.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

At the Battle of Ideas last October I went head to head with comedians Simon Evans, Nick Dixon, Paul Cox, Cressida Wetton and Ethan Green to debate who is the greatest. I made the argument that it was John Cleese. My initial pitch has just been released, so here, for your Sunday morning consideration, it is. I ended up winning the debate, but it was a close shave.Who, in your view, is the greatest? And why? Please let me know in the comments.If you enjoyed this video, please give it a like, share it somewhere, all that stuff. Thank you!And please subscribe to this excellent Substack, if you haven’t already.Speaking of comedy, there are still a handful of tickets left for my show on Tuesday, if you happen to fancy some subversive musical satire. That’s the Mid-Year Review on Tuesday, May 20 in London in sunny East London. I am just going through the set list - it is going to be an epic night. In other news, for long-suffering shareholders in STLLR Gold, the company just announced its latest PEA and MRE. We have been waiting a long time, and the market did not like it one bit. While the resource, 11 million ounces, is huge, the CAPEX to build this mine, $1.87 billion, is even huger. At $3/oz in the ground, it’s hard to think of a mining company that’s as cheap. But those ounces are cheap for a reason. Here, in case you missed it, is my write up from yesterday.Until next timeDominicIf you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Today, using the political compass as our mapping tool, we explore diversity of opinion in BBC Radio comedy.The political compass, as I’m sure you know, incorporates the, in my view, more important authoritarian and libertarian, as well as left and right.If you enjoyed this video, please give it a like, share it somewhere, all that stuff. Thank you!And please subscribe to this excellent Substack, if you haven’t already.In case you missed them, here are my pieces from earlier in the week.Gigs Coming UpHere is a list of shows I have coming up, in case of interest.The big one is The Mid-Year Review Wearing on next Tuesday, May 20 in London. Otherwise it’s:* London, Crazy Coqs, May 14. SOLD OUT. (Waiting list only)* London, Backyard, May 20. The Mid Year Review Tickets here* Sevenoaks, Out of Bounds Comedy Club, July 11. Tickets here.* Bedford, Quarry Theatre, July 27. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Sept 24. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Nov 5. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Dec 3. Tickets here.Happy Sunday! Until next time,DominicIf you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Fun fact: the only countries that own more bitcoin than the UK are the US (which own 207,000) and China (194,000). The UK has 61,000 bitcoin - worth almost $6 billion.They are mostly seized bitcoin, a lucky legacy from the early days when the UK was at the heart of bitcoin’s evolution. (Remember Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in British English, the Times was referenced in the Genesis block, and many of the early conferences and meet-ups happened here). The FCA, in its wisdom, put a stop to all that, and so we fell behind.The stupidest thing our Chancellor can do, even with the parlous state of the national finances, is to sell those bitcoin. History would look back on her as an even greater fool than Gordon Brown for selling the national gold.This legacy has given the UK an extraordinary advantage in the global arms race that is bitcoin adoption. We would be mad to spurn it.Meanwhile, something extraordinary is taking place in the corporate world of bitcoin adoption, and I think it is going to accelerate rapidly very soon.It is being spearheaded by Michael Saylor, Chairman and Founder of Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR).I recommended MicroStrategy, as it used to be called, to readers back in August 2023, largely because it was a means to get bitcoin exposure via your broker. You wouldn’t have to jump through all the hoops of buying bitcoin through exchanges, which the FCA has made so difficult.It has been a big win for readers, having more than 12x’d since we tipped it, outperforming bitcoin by a considerable margin. (Bear in mind it has undergone a 10-for-1 stock split since that article.)You really should upgrade your subscription :)Strategy now has some 555,450 bitcoin, meaning it has more bitcoin than any other publicly traded company in the world (excluding the ETFs, which now hold 1.35 million). Note again: there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins - rather less if you discount the 2.5 million that have likely been lost, and the 1.3 million that Satoshi never touched and probably never will).Saylor is also the world’s most articulate and charismatic proponent of bitcoin. The man is a genius, and I do not use that word lightly. He has turned Strategy from a quiet, business intelligence software firm, which traded sideways for 20 years with a market cap less than $2 billion, into one of the most talked-about and traded stocks in North America with a market cap north of $100 billion. Options traders love it.His method for doing so - extraordinarily bold at the time, though now it looks easy - was brilliantly simple. He bought bitcoin. He was worried about the erosion of the value of the corporate treasury due to inflation and currency debasement. he started slowly. Then, in buying bitcoin and using it, as tends to happen, he caught the bitcoin bug. He started issuing paper - stock, debt, convertible notes - and bought more bitcoin. Just last week he bought another 1,895 bitcoin, funding the purchase with sales of common and preferred stock.In effect, he is creating money out of (almost) nothing and using it to buy the hardest money in the history of mankind. (Sorry, goldbugs - and you know I’m on your team - but bitcoin is harder money, because the supply is more finite).In doing so, he has enabled many of his investors to retire early.But he has also set in motion something quite extraordinary.Other companies are starting to follow his model. I’m surprised more haven’t, but it takes extraordinary courage and vision to do what he did, as demonstrated by the fact that more companies haven’t copied him. They’re too cautious. Even with him having blazed the trail and shown the way.I think there’s a very good chance Strategy becomes a trillion dollar company, while Michael Saylor becomes the world’s richest man.To call the pre-bitcoin Strategy a zombie company is harsh, but it was not really going anywhere. Interestingly, it is zombie or near-zombie companies with large treasuries that are most likely to follow the Saylor model. Their need for a new direction is greater.Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) recently gave Saylor 5 minutes - 5 minutes! - to pitch his model to them, and duly ignored it. It is their loss. But Microsoft is Microsoft. At the moment, it doesn’t need bitcoin, and it doesn’t need to take the risk.GameStop (NYSE: GME), on the other hand, is a different matter. Remember GameStop from 2021 and all those memes during lockdown? The video game retailer had more than 3,000 outlets, and its business model was considered defunct. People buy games online now. But some private investors noted that the short position exceeded 100% of the issued shares of the company, and started buying. The ensuing short squeeze sent the stock from $17 to north of $500, and, it is said, almost broke Wall Street. (Not quite, but you get the point).The problem is GameStop’s business model is somewhat defunct. This year, it closed over 400 stores. This week, it sold its Canadian outlets.But the company has about $4.7 billion in cash, low debt, and just raised another $1.5 billion, it announced.What does it do now?Bitcoin is the answer.We don’t yet know how much it has bought, but its earnings call is on June 6, so perhaps we can expect an announcement then.The Japanese company Metaplanet (3350:TYO) is doing something similar. Formerly a zombie hotel company, now known as the “Asian MicroStrategy,” it has bought some 5,555 bitcoin. It bought another 555 this week after it issued its 13th set of bonds. The stock rose 40% on the news. Since spring 2024, when the company began its strategy, the stock has gone from below ¥20 to north of ¥600.The same thing is happening as happened to Saylor. Initially, the company bought it as a hedge against currency debasement. It discovered it was onto something. Now it is doing all it can to issue paper - bonds, warrants, stock, you name it - and use the proceeds to buy bitcoin.Perhaps GameStop will make a similar discovery.A year ago, Semler Scientific (NYSE: SMLR), which provides technology products and services for healthcare providers, made its first purchase of bitcoin: 581. It couldn’t stop accumulating. Now it has 3,467 bitcoin.Sol Strategies (CA:HODL), my old company, is doing something similar for Solana, having just announced a $500 million convertible note. This company had a market cap of barely C$20 million a few months ago.What started as a trickle is starting to flow. The more companies that do this, the bigger the rush is going to get. Corporations are changing they way they store capital. They are changing the capital they store.The implications for how corporates hold their treasuries are one thing. The implications for fiat money are extraordinary. Issue debt - ie create money - and buy hard digital assets with it. This is going to be a big, big theme in the next few years.If you enjoyed this article, please like it, share it, all that stuff :) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I thought I might share a few random bits and bobs from my little life for you to ponder today, starting with various interviews.Here I am on the mighty James Delingpole’s podcast, talking about most subjects, though squabbling about conspiracy theories.Then there is this interview with Jasmine Birtles for the Money Magpie podcast, talking mostly about gold and property. (Audio on Spotify; video on YouTube). Also this radio interview with ABC Australia, I was quite pleased with. Here it is.And, if bitcoin is your thing, here I am on the Discovering Bitcoin podcast.Right. That’s all the interviews done.A Thief in our MidstTurning to matters closer to home, there is a beautiful cat, pictured below, which belongs to a Chinese lady, who lives three doors up. She visits my garden every morning (the cat not the Chinese lady) as I am getting my 15 minutes of sun, purrs seductively, gets stroked, and then wanders off on its day to do who knows what. If I leave the back door open, she will come into my house and visit me at my desk, stretch out luxuriantly and, if I pick her up, start padding my chest pleasantly. I thought we had become friends.Well, you can’t trust anyone.I now discover this feline fiend has been sneaking into my son’s room to steal his socks, which it then brings back to its owner three doors up. Here it is. Caught red handed.A Rare Trip to the TheatreOn Wednesday I went to see The Comedy About Spies in the West End. It’s not something I would have normally gone to watch, but my friend Tom Woods had some tickets he couldn’t use and so off I went with my next door neighbour. I thought it was terrific. Thank you Tom!I’m obsessed with farce. Always have been since I first watched Fawlty Towers as a little boy. (I actually did my university thesis on Fawlty Towers). It’s my favourite form of theatre by a country mile. I love the precision of it, along with the heightened emotion and panic. Done well there is no better narrative form, in my opinion. Films like Midnight Run and TV series like Curb Your Enthusiasm, in my view, embrace farcical plot schemes. But if you want a farce in its purest form on film, watch What’s Up Doc. Just the best.The premise of The Comedy About Spies is a little bit forced, but the jokes are fab, there are hundreds of them, one after the other, they are brilliantly executed and with incredible precision - it’s wonderful to see a show this tight. By the end I even found myself moved by the characters. I LOLed many times. What can I say? It’s really good. What’s your favourite farce? Let me know in the comments.The South Africanisation of EverythingIn other, less positive news, on Tuesday evening I found myself walking down the Kilburn High Road for the first time in about 25 years. It was always a bit rough around the edges - up there with Elephant & Castle and Streatham High Road as one of London's most worst thoroughfares - but my God it was eye-opening as to where the UK is going / has gone.Litter everywhere, people off their faces, drugs being dealt openly on the street, beggars, a woman knocked over by a bloke cycling a Lime bike on the pavement, the bloke unapologetic, little trust between visible between people in this multi-cultural mayhem. Talk about lack of cohesion. (I drove through Harlesden the other night and that was bad too).It confirmed my theory of the South Africanisation of everything. (Actually it’s my friend Alex’s theory, but I have purloined it). It prompted me to dig up this piece from a couple of years back, which at one point was the most read piece on this ‘ere Substack. On re-reading it now, I’m rather proud of it. Recommended.The Secret History of GoldIn personal news, I am glad/relieved to say I submitted the final proofs for my new book on gold which comes out in August - the Secret History of Gold (I haven’t actually announced it yet, which I will in due course). Writing a book is an enormous undertaking. Publicising it is an even greater one. I’m glad stage one is complete.How about this for a fact?In 1930 the price of gold was £4.25 per ounce, as it was in 1716 when Isaac Newton set the price over 200 years earlier. FOUR POUNDS 25p. Today it's £2,475 per ounce. From £4.25 to £2,475. That's how much we've been robbed by currency depreciation.How have they (successive governments) been able to get away with this?Because representative democracy does not work is why.Thank goodness for gold. Thank goodness for bitcoin. Speaking of which:As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.The Mid-Year ReviewWearing my satirical comedy hat, I have a big gig coming up on May 20 in East London. These nights are usually pretty memorable - and for the right reasons.If you are free, come along. You can get tickets here. It would be great to see you.Finally, in case you missed this week’s commentary, here it is:Have a lovely bank holiday weekend.Fun fact: Mayday - not as in the bank holiday, but as in the distress call for a ship or a plane is actually from the French, “M’aidez” - help me. May Day is an ancient festival to celebrate the beginning of summer (or as is the case in the UK this year, the end of summer), though socialists hijacked it with International Workers’ Day. So now we are all crying “M’aidez” on May Day.Tell your friends about this entertaining catch up. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI spoke about gold this week to ABC Australia. This little interview may be of some interest. Here it is. Meanwhile …It’s as though the whole tariff thing never happened, the way stock markets are rallying. I think it’s seven green days in a row now.Everybody is getting very excited about a rare technical signal we got last Thursday - - there have only been 16 of them since the S&P500 was created in 1957, including the latest on April 24, 2025. But this signal has a 100% reliability record, and has been followed by average 6-month returns of 15% and a 12-month returns of 23%. That’s a pretty stellar record. So I just wanted to offer my 2p.The indicator - the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator (ZBT) - was first observed in the 1986 Martin Zweig book, Winning on Wall Street (which I confess to not having read). It occurs when a market swings from an oversold to an overbought reading within 10 trading days.Eight of them have occurred since the book was published: in 2004, in 2009 (shortly after the March lows at 666), in 2011 after the taper tantrum, in 2013, 2015, 2018 and in 2023 twice. Now we have one coming off the “tariff tantrum”, as I’ve just dubbed it.However, before you go out and gamble your entire life savings, note that back in 2015 technical analyst Tom McClellan published a detailed study of ZBT signals, which went back much further than the 1957 formation of the S&P500 - all the way to 1928.During the bear market of the 1930s Great Depression, there were multiple occurrences of the signal - 14 of them - and it was horribly unreliable: 10 led to losses or negligible gains, 2 preceded strong rallies, and 2 were flat. It was useless, in other words.So, in short, it’s been good since 1957, but was rubbish before. A bit like stereos.There are plenty of reasons to remain cautious. The high levels of volatility we are witnessing are consistent with a bear market not a bull market. There are also high levels of uncertainty: what is actually going to happen with tariffs? Nobody quite knows. I’m not sure even the President. Plus we are going into May, usually a weak time of year for the stock market. And it may be that the consequences of Trump’s tariff talk have not yet been felt in the US on the ground. One argument is that there has been a huge drop off in container ships leaving China. A container would typically take 30 days to reach LA, and another 10-20 days to get to the major cities - Houston, Chicago, New York et al. So the drop-off in container ships leaving China after Liberation Day won’t be felt until mid-May. If there is a pick up in shipments, that wouldn’t be felt till another month after that. Some are saying supply shortages are coming to the US. Have a read of this and see what you think. Markets usually price this kind of stuff in, but you never know. Cui bono?Among the sectors that should benefit from Trump’s America first policies are US domestic mining and manufacturing. Here the regulatory environment is changing fast. Trump signed an executive order on March 20 with the aim of accelerating production of critical minerals. Federal agencies have actually been mandated to look to the US for priority metals - copper, gold, nickel, uranium and so - when they previously looked abroad. We are already seeing faster permitting. I hear that formerly dormant projects are seeing activity for the first time in years. Emails are being answered promptly, applications are being processed, even in states like California. This new environment is positive for oil and gas producers, miners, explorers and developers in the US. The problem is that commodity prices have dropped off a cliff. There’s always a catch.Even so, one company that should benefit from this new macro environment is this potential multi-bagger.On which, note I wanted to give you a related heads up.

We have a video for your Sunday thought piece today, in which I walk round my local supermarket and identify all the foods which have seed oils (spoiler - almost all of them).Ever wondered which foods in your supermarket are packed with seed oils? Join me on a clandestine mission around my local shop to unveil some hard truths about pizzas, hummus, sausage rolls, and even granola. Seed oils infiltrate nearly every packaged item—and you should care. By the way, my original piece on seed oils is one of the most read articles on this substack, interestingly enough. Here is is, if you haven’t already read it:I hope you find it useful and/or entertaining.Have a lovely Sunday.DominicPS ICYMI, here’s my midweek commentary:As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGold again today. I just can’t stop writing about it.Another day. Another new high. We touched $3,500 in the early hours of yesterday morning.That’s 27 new highs in the gold price so far this year.Yet there is still something about this bull market that doesn’t feel right or complete: it’s not confirmed by silver, which should be trading north of $50. Instead it’s mired around $32. Nor is this bull market confirmed by the miners, which, in most cases, are nowhere near all-time highs.Nevertheless, on the basis of gold’s price relative to equities, commodities and houses, as outlined last week, gold is starting to look expensive. Is it time to have an eye on the exit?In the short term, maybe. It’s overbought. We are going into a weak time of year for gold (May to August). But that’s why I like physical. It stops you trading!How about this for a chart?It now takes more work than at any time in the last 100 years to buy an ounce of gold.This is as much a function of declining wages in real terms, and the erosion in value of fiat, as it is the price of gold, but all the same it’s pretty incredible: how we’ve all been lied to!There are, though, many signs that gold is now fully valued.But these are not normal times.And a “proper” bull market will see blow-off tops in silver and the miners. We don’t have that yet.Let me give you six more reasons (ie largely previously unmentioned reasons) not to be selling your gold.1. You live in the UK.(This is one I have mentioned before). Do not be fooled by the fact that the pound has been performing relatively well in the foreign exchange markets this year. It has lost 37% of its purchasing power since 2020 and has repeatedly proven to be a rotten store of value.The interest on UK gilts is rising, meaning it is getting increasingly expensive for the government to pay for its own debt. We’re above Liz Truss levels and the trend is rising.We’ve got high energy costs too.What this government is actually doing to rein in its spending is one thing. What needs to be done is something else. There is no Elon Musk taking the guillotine to it all. The scale of our government inefficiency, waste, corruption, misallocation of capital is both larger, relative to GDP, and more entrenched than in the US. At the level of government we are not even having a conversation about what needs to be done, let alone actually doing anything.Nor is there any likelihood of this country re-industriali sing. We’ll just have to hope people buy our services, what few we offer. In the meantime we’ll keep borrowing to pay for stuff.The only way is currency debasement. There has never been a Labour government that did not devalue sterling. Think this one will be any different? Do not store your wealth in sterling. They take enough from you in taxes as it is. Don’t let them take any more.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.2. Chinese retailI’m endlessly wittering on about China’s central bank buying gold, but one thing I confess I’ve overlooked is Chinese retail buying. Its real estate and stock markets have both been rubbish, the former especially, so they are buying gold instead. Then think about the sheer size of China’s retail market: over a billion potential buyers. Never mind central bank buying, the potential scale of this thing is enormous. What if they al buy an ounce each?When do they stop buying and start selling? When their real estate and stock markets pick up … Meanwhile, China’s central bank, the PBOC, which says it bought 5 tonnes last month, actually bought ten times that. (De-dollarisation, which is perhaps the biggest factor of the lot, except re-monetisation, does not even make it onto this list as I‘ve covered it so many times before).3. What about Western retail? What about Western institutions? Western retail and institutional investors have been slow to this bull market and are under-allocated. As my buddy Ross Norman says, “this gold rally has not, to date, been driven by retail investors buying coins and bars, high net clients clamouring for physical, nor institutions buying the gold ETF, not even speculative flows to any great extent. This has been an incredibly low participation rally. A stealth run even”. Portfolios are roughly 2% allocated to gold at present. They were four times that at the peak of the last bull market in 2011. That means a lot of room for more Western buying.Since the confiscation of Russian assets, central banks have bought every pullback to the 50-day moving average. But it’s not just central banks now, retail and institutional investors the world over are coming to the party. And if you think they’re underweight gold, wait until you see how underweight they are gold miners. (Even these are slowly starting to move - MTL anyone :)?)4. Gold vs the Nasdaq - OMGTrends in this ratio tend to go on for a long time, like ten years or more.How about this for a chart?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comCongratulations to all who bought. Gold is now trading above $3,300. Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $4,000/oz. It’s all going swimmingly. But nothing lasts forever.(Actually gold does, but you know what I mean).So, today, I want to ask: when do we sell our gold?To answer that question, I am going to look at some long-term ratios.How is gold looking relative to stocks, to other commodities and against house prices? (We’ll look at gold versus house prices in the US, the UK and Australia).There is a strong argument, by the way, for never selling your gold, especially if you’re in a country such as the UK with an unreliable national currency. If you don’t need the money, keep the gold and pass it on to your heirs - and tell them to do the same. But macro conditions are not always as gold-friendly as they are now. See the 1980s and 90s for more details.What’s more, given how these trade wars are unfolding, with unpayable levels of debt across the western world and China’s extraordinary accumulation of gold, there is a significant chance - say, 25% - that gold ends up being remonetized somehow.(If China wants global reserve status for its yuan, it’ll almost certainly have to make it exchangeable for gold - meaning higher gold prices. But even if not, all China has to do is declare it’s real gold holdings, and the price will rocket).In the event of remonetisation, which also means some kind of crisis, gold prices will be dramatically higher. However, it’s also likely that your gold would either be confiscated or heavily taxed, so that the gains from the revaluation (aka fiat devaluation) pass to the state rather than the citizen, as happened in the US under Roosevelt in 1933.But let us leave such speculation for another day.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.Gold vs StocksI want to start with the Dow-to-Gold ratio: how many ounces of gold does it take to buy the Dow?There is much history in this chart. It’s quite something.You can see how, most of the time, the ratio stays within that green band. It is only at points of maximum extremity that it goes beyond, such as:* The peak of the stock market in 1929* The Great Depression in 1932* The suppression of gold in the 1960s, ending with the collapse of the gold standard in 1971* The peak of 1970s gold mania, inflation, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan* The end of the gold bear market in 2000 and the peak of DotcomToday, with gold at $3,300 and the Dow at 40,000, it takes 12 ounces of gold to buy the Dow - and we are in the low- to mid-range of that green prediction band.At the peak of the last gold bull market in September 2011, the ratio reached 5.7.To reach such a level again, either the gold price would have to double (possible) or the Dow would have to halve (unlikely, I would have thought). Most probable is something along the lines of the Dow falling 25% and gold rising another 50%.Would this ratio ever go to 1:1, as it did in 1980? If so, we would be looking at a gold price in the tens of thousands.It’s possible, I suppose.I think a ratio of 5-8 is a reasonable possible target. Here’s a similar history of gold against the S&P 500:Today, we are at 1.7. It takes 1.7 oz to buy the S&P.The ratio reached 0.2 in the 1930s and 1940s. It went to 0.13 in 1980.I doubt we’ll see that again.But that 2011 level of 0.6, or perhaps even a little below if things get really spicy, is not an unreasonable target, I suppose. That could mean the S&P500 at 4,200 and gold at $7,000/oz. Something like that.So that’s some bull food for you.In the interests of balance, let’s now put some bearish fodder on the menu.We’ll start with gold versus oil - and the bad news. Then we’ll look at gold and house prices.