The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Gold broke out to new highs on Friday: $3,237/oz. It is proving one of the prime beneficiaries of all the market mayhem, and no surprise. Gold is your hedge against government, and this is all a creation of government.Where to park capital? Equities are all over the place and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. With US authorities transparent about wanting it lower, the US dollar is not the safe haven it’s been since 2007 in market sell-offs. As for treasuries, they’ve become a weapon in the trade wars.Inert gold, on the other hand, is neutral. It doesn’t care which side of the trade wars, the culture wars, or any other wars you’re on, and at the moment, it seems everyone wants a piece.China, we learn thanks to the sleuthing of analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs, bought another 570 tonnes in 2024. Who knows how much more it has bought in 2025? To put that 570-tonne number in perspective, the UK’s total holdings are 310 tonnes.Tell your friends.What’s driving it all?This move in gold started shortly after the US confiscated $300 billion in Russian state holdings after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It hasn’t been driven by retail. Central bank buying has pushed up the price.If you’re not on Team US or Team G7, why own assets they can confiscate, like dollars or treasuries?Own gold instead. The US would have to invade you to take your gold—or send in Kelly’s Heroes.In 1950, gold made up 70% of international reserves. In the noughties, it was just 10%. The dollar, meanwhile, reached 60%, with the euro at another 20%.Now gold is at 20%, the dollar at 45%, and the euro at 15%. The trend is clear, as this cool little video from Nieuwenhuijs and Money Metals shows:In my opinion, we’ll be at 40% five years from now.Here’s gold since late 2022. Every pullback has been bought. It’s as though someone with deep pockets is saying, “Buy the pullback every time it hits the 50-day moving average (red line).”The UK seems to have been forgotten in this global rout, but I have little doubt the chickens of our shocking national finances and woeful productivity will soon come home to roost in the form of a sterling crisis. That’s when we overlooked Britishers will be mighty glad we have our gold.Gold is now £2,475/oz. Another year of this, and we’ll be north of £3,000.Summer is approaching, and May to August is typically when gold is weakest. Take advantage of pullbacks, is my advice. Do what the Chinese are doing. They’re smarter than we are (when it comes to gold, at least).With oil having cratered, we should finally see gold miners fetch a proper bid. (They are already moving a little). Energy can represent 15% to 40% of mining costs. Lower costs and a higher price for the final product should mean they make more money, and thus higher share prices. (I’ll cover miners again soon, I promise, though I am worried I’ll jinx it)Here’s something Charlie Morris observed—and you really should subscribe to his gold newsletter, Atlas Pulse; it’s top dog in a crowded field - it’s free. GDX is the largest gold mining ETF by far. Despite higher gold prices, it’s seen outflows of 25% over the past year. When inflows start, these things will rocket. The sector is tiny relative to the capital out there.Here’s three years of Brent, FYI. It’s almost the reverse of gold. Good for mining.If you’re interested in buying gold, by the way - and you should own some, if you don’t already, given everything that is going on - the bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.A 2-minute video for your Sunday entertainmentI’ve got lots of content coming up over the next fortnight. I’ve just returned from two days of bitcoin conferences, so I’m fired up about that. I’ve got that gold mining piece to write. I have a lot more to say about gold. I have a fab video to share with you which I will send out tomorrow. And I want to explore where we should deploy capital in all this market mayhem: which sectors will do well in tariff wars, and which won’t. So, plenty to come.You ought to subscribe.In the meantime, as it’s the weekend, enjoy this silly little 3-minute vid I put together for my comedy Substack - not to be taken seriously - about alien invaders on planet Earth stealing our gold at the dawn of civilization. (Click the image below)Finally, if you’re interested in gold and haven’t already seen it, here’s my guide to investing int he shiny stuff. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don’t normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn’t matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we’ve come out of this comparatively unscathed. What’s more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone’s, have been hit, and I’m angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I’ve been saying for some time I don’t like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there’s no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We’ll start by explaining the plan. Then we’ll look at what comes next. And, finally, we’ll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI’m a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I’m not quite sure what I am any more. But I’m not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There’s no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn’t a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he’s not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don’t be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they’re here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it’s here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren’t so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I’ve already said: Trump isn’t going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he’s going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn’t the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he’ll cave if stocks keep tanking, I’m not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he’s put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He’s going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn’t properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He’s been thinking about it night and day for years. He’ll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn’t mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn’t thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can’t resist a gag - but he’s not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump’s doing what he’s doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That’s part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it’s for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it’s semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won’t pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here’s a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it’s halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company’s management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don’t know—I haven’t been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won’t want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it’s going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there’ll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That’s the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent’s calculations are that tariffs won’t gouge consumers as much as feared. What’s more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he’s creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won’t give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I’ve seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I’m correctly inferring Bessent’s comments, at this current point, Trump doesn’t care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It’s the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won’t matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It’s worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That’s why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What’s more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China’s AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7’re down 30-45%).Trump’s announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn’t burst it, something else will.Trump’s plan, meanwhile, (and I’m not saying it’ll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let’s say 10% of them did that. That’s another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It’s not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That’s happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we’re going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband’s high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That’s happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week’s panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn’t rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It’s coming down. It’s already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comTo watch a video version of this article, click here:We have more stock tips for you today with multibag potential.But first, let’s get political.Remember how the Conservative Party from David Cameron onwards effectively abandoned the right and became social democrats?Increased state spending everywhere, so that instead of shrinking the state they grew it, more taxes, higher taxes, more planning and regulation, more quangos and experts, ‘owning’ the NHS, green subsidies, Net Zero, social liberalism, MPs who didn’t represent the views of the membership, increased immigration, weaker policing, increased crime - and so on. Those were the days, eh?The Tories were so bereft of first principle, and so terrified of the left, particularly the left-wing media, that they pandered to it and eventually became it.I remember going on podcasts 18 months ago making the argument that Labour would do the same thing and lurch right. After an insert-disparaging-adjective-here first six months, which saw Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings drop below even those of Rishi Sunak, we are starting to see that happen.With the books not balancing, suddenly spending is being cut. Not by a lot, but it’s happening. Starmer has axed NHS England, something the Tories would never have dared do, criticising “two layers of bureaucracy”. We have what the Independent calls “Austerity 2.0” with cuts to disability benefits and welfare spending. The foreign aid budget has been cut to spend more on defence. All of a sudden he is as champion of small businesses. Heck, he’s even fixing the potholes. Meanwhile, he is boasting on X about “securing our borders” and “removing illegal immigrants at the highest rate in 8 years”.“If you don’t have the right to be in this country, then you shouldn’t be here. It’s that simple,” he said yesterday. Does that sound like a Labour leader or Nigel Farage?When fantasy meets realityThe next right-wing shoe to drop is fossil fuels.Ed Miliband’s fantasies of climate justice and clean energy are slowly being exposed. His green delusion is going to be abandoned. If an economy is to grow, then it must consume more energy, not less. Wind and solar power are too expensive and too unreliable, never mind the damage they do to the environment and the carbon footprint they leave. They are already pledging to paint offshore wind farms black because of all the birds they are killing. Finally, an admission of the wildlife these things destroy.Offshore wind is not going to replace oil and gas. Fossil fuels remain a better, cheaper, cleaner and more reliable source of energy. For an already heavily taxed country that is living well beyond its means, where growth is the only thing that can save it, with the added pressure of Trump tariffs soon coming, needlessly expensive energy is not possible.The Reform party is making the cost of Net Zero one of its main lines of attack. All Labour has to do is further abandon the left of its party, a process which is already half complete, just as the Tories abandoned the right, and let Miliband go, which is inevitable anyway, and the Reform weapon is blunted.All the above is preamble to my main argument today. North Sea oil and gas is going to stage a comeback. This is going to happen, as sure as eggs are eggs. Political and economic reality mean it is inevitable. Otherwise, the national finances, and with them the Labour Government, evaporate. Power is more important to politicians than adhering to any zealotry, green or otherwise.The ban on new North Sea oil and gas licenses will be lifted. The taxes on North Sea oil companies will be lowered to incentivise activity (it’s effectively 78% at present. Are legislators demented?). And all those companies that saw their businesses and market caps decimated by this deluded religion are going to make a comeback. Some will multiply many times over. That’s what I think is going to happen, anyway. This also means, for we observers on the foothills of inconsequence, the time is nigh to buy North Sea oil and gas companies. So what are these companies and how do we invest?

If you enjoyed this video, please share it.A rant for you this Sunday morning. Enjoy!If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.By the way, in case of interest, I have the following comedy shows coming up int he next fortnight.* Bath, April 3. Tickets here. SOLD OUT* Bordon, Hampshire. April 12. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, May 14. SOLD OUT. (Waiting list only)* London, Backyard, May 20. The Mid Year Review Tickets here* London, Crazy Coqs, Sept 24. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Nov 5. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Dec 3. Tickets here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

How I boosted my testosterone with no TRT—exercise, sleep, fasting and diet.Based on this article: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

You can read the story below or the video version here: From this week’s Moneyweek Magazine …Two rumours have been swirling around the gold markets for many years. Some have called them conspiracy theories. Others note that conspiracy theories often prove true. What’s the difference between conspiracy and truth? About 30 years.The first is that China has far more gold than it says it does. We actually now know this to be true. The other is that America has far less than the 8,133 tonnes of gold it says it possesses.This rumour has been doing the rounds since 1971, when Peter Beter, a lawyer and financial adviser to former president John F. Kennedy, said he had been informed that gold in Fort Knox had been removed. He went on to write a best-selling book about it: The Conspiracy Against the Dollar.The problem is a total lack of transparency on the part of the US authorities, something that according to current US president Donald Trump, and the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, will not be the case for much longer.Roosevelt triggers a boomBut to understand this situation we need to go back in time, all the way to 1933, when US president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously devalued the US dollar and revalued gold upwards by 70%, from $20 an ounce (oz) to $35/oz, in order to bolster growth. US gold reserves would increase to unprecedented levels in the next 15 years.Some of the gold came from US citizens. It was now illegal for them to own gold and they had to hand any they owned over to the authorities. Some came from the fact that the government then bought all US mined supply (the upwards revaluation of gold triggered a mining boom) and any gold imported to the US assay office. The US even began buying gold on foreign markets to protect the new higher price.Thus US official holdings in 1939 on the eve of World War II totalled 15,679 tonnes. They would only increase. With Nazi invasions, European nations sent all the gold they could across the Atlantic, either for safekeeping or to buy essential supplies; 1949 saw the high watermark of US gold holdings – 22,000 tonnes, as much as half of all the gold ever mined.In July 1944, with it clear that the Allies were going to win the war, representatives from the 44 Allied nations met at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference to design a new system of money for the new world order.International accounts would be settled in dollars, and those dollars were convertible to gold at $35/oz. Countries had to maintain exchange rates within 1% of the US dollar. In effect, the US was on a gold standard, and the rest of the world was on a dollar standard.The system relied on the integrity of the US dollar to work, and that integrity was in question, even before the end of the war. The June 1945 Federal Reserve Act reduced required gold reserves for notes outstanding from 40% to 25%, and against deposits from 35% to 25%. Between 1944 and 1954, because of increased supply, the dollar lost a third of its purchasing power, though the $35 Bretton Woods price remained.“Six major European countries,along with the UK, co-ordinated sales to suppress the gold price”US government spending was soaring, and it began running balance of payments deficits – made worse by the costs of foreign aid, America’s new welfare systems and maintaining a military presence in Europe and Asia. Gold began leaving the US. By 1965 reserves had fallen by 9,500 tonnes, down 40% from the 1949 peak.Successive US administrations tried to stop the outflow, without success. Dwight D. Eisenhower banned Americans from buying gold overseas, Kennedy imposed the “equalisation tax” on foreign investments, and Lyndon B. Johnson discouraged Americans from travelling altogether. “We may need to forgo the pleasures of Europe for a while,” he said.Fears that the dollar would devalue following the election (won by Kennedy) sent the gold price in London to $40/oz. The Bank of England, in collusion with the Federal Reserve, began increasing gold sales to keep the price down.Thus did the London gold pool begin, with the addition of six major European nations the following year (Belgium, France, the Netherlands, West Germany, Italy and Switzerland), which co-ordinated sales to suppress, or “stabilise”, to use their word, the gold price and defuse unwanted, upward market pressure.But the pool struggled against growing demand. In 1965, an ounce of gold was still $35, but the purchasing power of the dollar had decreased by 57% from 1945, while gold reserves had also fallen sharply. The culprit was the costs of the US government, in particular the Vietnam War and president Johnson’s enormous welfare spending.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Bretton Woods under pressureWith inflation rising at home and international confidence in the dollar waning, these programmes were not just costly – they undermined Bretton Woods. Non-American nations felt aggrieved that they had to produce $100 worth of goods and services to get a $100 bill, when the US could just print one. French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing called it “America’s exorbitant privilege”.President de Gaulle, meanwhile, had had enough. He ignored the pool to turn all French dollars and sterling balances into gold. The French even sent battleships to New York to collect their gold. De Gaulle became the target of several assassination attempts – coincidence, I’m sure. There were rather more US dollars in the world than there was gold to back them, he felt, and he was right.By 1967, US foreign liabilities were $36bn, but it only had $12bn in gold reserves – a third of what was needed to back the dollar. West Germany, Spain and Switzerland began demanding gold for their dollars. Even the British, with sterling going through one of its quadrennial collapses, asked the Americans to prepare $3bn worth of Fort Knox gold for withdrawal. Private gold demand was overwhelming.“The floor of the Bank of England’s weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the bullion”In November 1967, the British government devalued the pound by 14%, from $2.80 to $2.40, in order to “achieve a substantial surplus on the balance of payments consistent with economic growth and full employment”.In that month, the London market saw greater bullion demand than it would typically see in nine: as much as 100 tonnes per day. To stem demand they banned forward buying, leverage and the purchase of gold with credit. The pool still lost 1,400 tonnes that year, more than a whole year’s mined supply.Selling pressure on the US dollar only increased when the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese People’s Army of Vietnam launched the first of a series of surprise attacks on US armed forces in South Vietnam in January 1968.Desperate to prop up the system, US military aircraft flew tonne after tonne of gold to RAF Lakenheath from where it was trucked in military convoys to the back entrance of the Bank of England: at one point the floor of the Bank of England’s weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the gold.You really should subscribe to this amazing publication.Shoring up the systemIn the four days between 11 March and 14 March 1968, some 780 tonnes were sold to market. The effort to protect the price was deemed hopeless. On 15 March, UK chancellor Roy Jenkins declared a bank holiday, and the gold market was closed for a fortnight, “at the request of the United States”.Zurich also closed. Paris stayed open with gold trading at a 25% premium. All in all, the final 15 months saw over 3,000 tonnes sold to market to protect that $35 price. The pool had lost more than an eighth of its reserves.Two days later, in the rushed-through Washington Agreement, governors of the central banks in the gold pool declared there would be one fixed gold marketfor official government transactions at $35/oz and another, free-market, price for private transactions. Not for the last time, central bankers were living in a world of their own.Gold is one thing. Gold standards are another. They tend not to last, particularly bogus ones such as this one, under which citizens themselves did not handle gold. Keynes called them barbarous – ironic, perhaps, given that he was one of the architects of this one.In August 1971, president Nixon took the US off the gold standard, a “temporary” measure that remains more than 50 years later. For the first time in history, gold – Switzerland aside – played no part in the global monetary system.Of course it was the fault of the speculators. It always is. “I have directed the secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators,” Nixon said, deflecting responsibility, and “to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold”.High time for a US gold auditThe US keeps its gold in four places: at Fort Knox, Kentucky (roughly 56% of its 8,133 tonnes); at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (8%); and the remaining 36% at the mints in Denver and West Point. There has not been a proper public audit of this gold since 1953. There have been internal audits, especially between 1974 and 1986, but these were not transparent.There are many people, among them gold experts, who do not believe the gold is there. The US spent it trying to suppress the gold price in the 1960s, theysay. But in this new age of American transparency, both Trump and Musk have repeatedly pledged that this gold will be audited.There is talk of it being done on a livestream. Trump has even suggested the gold has been stolen. “We’re actually going to Fort Knox to see if the gold is there,” he said, “because maybe somebody stole the gold. Tonnes of gold.”They’ve been making such light of it, one has to assume they know the gold is there. Musk was laughing about the conspiracies on podcasts, and he even posted a picture of a Fort Knox starter kit: a brick and some gold spray. I can’t see how they would be joking if there were any serious doubts.Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, has said quite categorically that the gold is there. The last audit was in September 2024, he said in a recent Bloomberg interview, before looking down the camera and assuring the US people that “all the gold is present and accounted for”. But this would only have been an internal audit, and it would not have been a full audit.According to the US Mint, “the only gold removed has been very small quantities used to test the purity of gold during regularly scheduled audits”. No other gold has been transferred to or from the depository “for many years”. How long is many years, though? As far back as the 1960s?It’s quite astonishing just how secretive the whole thing is. They opened the vaults for a congressional delegation and certain members of the press to view the gold in 1974. There were rumours swirling about then too. “We’ve never done this before and we’ll probably never do it again,” said the then director of the US Mint Mary Brooks.“The gold commonly confiscated under Roosevelt contained some copper, and is not pure enough for sale”Then in 2017, during Trump’s first administration, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell were invited to view the gold. “The gold was there,” Mnuchin said. He is “sure” nobody’s moved it. There are “serious security protocols in place”. But there are more than 4,000 tonnes in Fort Knox. A tonne would be about the size of a medium to large suitcase. Did he see all 4,000 of them?The other big issue is the purity of the gold. What is there might not all be of good delivery quality, meaning it would not be readily accepted in international bullion markets. If much of the gold is the bullion Roosevelt confiscated in the 1930s, it will be in the form of “coinmelt”: melted down coins.The commonly confiscated coins, such as the $20 double eagle, were only 90% pure and mixed with copper to make them harder. When melted down, they were not always properly refined to modern standards, while the bars they were melted into weighed 320-330 ounces, not the 400 oz bars of good delivery standard today. In practice, this means Fort Knox gold would not be accepted without additional processing.But, until a proper audit takes place, this is all speculation, albeit reasoned speculation. We don’t know the full facts. The reasons given for not conducting a full audit are flimsy: we don’t need to, it would be too much of an undertaking. Please!If the US gold turns out not to be there, then the gold price goes up – potentially a lot. If it is there, it’s business as usual.For now, I’d say the markets are behaving as though it is business as usual. They are climbing, and every dip is being bought, largely, it seems, by central banks (especially in Asia), who are diversifying their holdings and de-dollarising. But this audit cannot come quickly enough.Large volumes of physical gold - over 1,000 tonnes by some counts - have recently been transferred from London to New York. One theory is that was the gold was transferred in anticipation of tariffs. Another is that it was the US buying ahead of its audit. We will soon find out.Finally, I would just like to debunk one theory doing the rounds. US gold is currently marked to market at $42/oz. After the audit, those 8,133 tonnes – assuming they are there and of good delivery quality – could be marked to market at current prices, meaning a significant uplift in the value of holdings.The theory doing the rounds is that Treasury ecretary Bessent will use some of the upwards revaluation to monetise the balance sheet – not unlike how Roosevelt did in 1933 – to create funds for, among other things, the strategic bitcoin reserve. But Bessent has quite clearly stated that is not his intention.This article first appeared in Moneyweek Magazine. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comEverything looks decidedly shaky all of a sudden. Trump is swinging the wrecking ball. Markets are tanking. What to do?A bear market was long overdue, but now that we are teetering on the edge of one, it doesn’t feel very nice.Markets don’t like uncertainty, and there is a lot of it about at the moment. President Trump likes to create it. It’s one of his negotiating tactics. And he is creating one heck of a lot of it.Unlike his previous presidency, when he made a lot of noise but wasn’t able to get much actually done, this time around he seems to be shaking up a world order that has been in place for decades, both internationally and at home.Is he serious about America no longer being the world’s policeman? It seems he is. It began with a global freeze on most U.S. foreign aid as part of his “America First” policy, and USAID’s closure is reverberating internationally. Many have lost their jobs; some 10000 grants and contracts have been canceled, disrupting global aid programmes and more. So much of it was illegitimate, bent, or wasteful. Elon Musk called it “beyond repair” and an “evil criminal organization,” boasting of feeding it “into the wood chipper.” Maybe so. Doesn’t mean ending it will be easy. Anything but.There have been cuts to the federal workforce; numerous bodies, such as the Social Security Administration and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, have been targeted.But at present, the administration is moving quickly and breaking things. Many support what is happening. Many don’t. Nobody knows quite how far this will go, but it seems a lot further than anyone anticipated.Europe is going to have to pay its way, and he really means it. What are the implications of that?What is going to happen between Russia and Ukraine? What deal does he have in mind? Will Presidents Putin and Zelensky go along with it?What’s going on with tariffs? Are they really about the revenue (I don’t think so) or about something else? What are the implications there?What is the reaction from Trump’s political opponents going to be? They’ve started attacking Tesla factories. They hate him so much they could not even bring themselves to applaud when a terminally ill child with brain cancer was given an honorary Secret Service award. Whether it’s in the courts or on the streets, they will oppose everything he does. They would rather have corruption, waste, and no transparency than have Donald Trump.The amounts that have been saved so far are disputed. DOGE claimed $55 billion in the first month. Others have it closer to $15 billion. Either is peanuts in the context of the $2 trillion figure Elon Musk touted during the campaign and reiterated post-inauguration. This would represent roughly 30% of the federal budget ($6.75 trillion 2024). We are a long way from that. There are a thousand billions in a trillion.Musk is aiming for $1 trillion to be cut from the U.S. deficit in the first year. We are a long way from that too. Even with all the cuts, one Reuters analysis shows that spending has actually increased under Trump, largely due to the increase in interest payments on that extraordinary $36 trillion U.S. national debt. President Joe Biden increased that debt by $8 trillion—31%. Though, to be fair to him, Trump increased it by almost $8 trillion (40%) in his first term.I remember when it was below $10 trillion, and that seemed like a lot.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Was he right?Remember this freaky interview I posted back in October?The preacher man who described Trump’s assassination with uncanny accuracy, then talked about a mighty crash. People are always predicting crashes and getting it wrong, but this guy was amazing.Aaaaagh. Scary!As I say, if there is one thing markets don’t like, it is uncertainty. And we have that in abundance. Nobody quite knows how this is going to pan out. I, for one, am incredibly optimistic. The sooner the system is drained of corruption, waste, rent-seeking, non-productive endeavour, crony capitalism, non-accountability, and all the rest of it, the better, in my view.But I recognise there is a mountain, and more, of upheaval to get through first.Thank goodness we have such a large allocation to gold. It is behaving like a trooper. Who knows? A mining boom might even come out of this.But the stock market does not like it one bit.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBeware: imposters! Anyone appearing to be me, but soliciting you to chat on Telegram or WhatsApp or anywhere is NOT ME. It is someone trying to scam you out of your money.Video version of this article here: We are talking testosterone today.I posted this video on YouTube the other day of me breaking the Lewisham dead hang record. Dead hangs are not the greatest spectator sport, so it might be one to watch sped up. In any case, somebody in the comments asked if I had been taking some kind of testosterone supplement. The answer is, “sort of.”Testosterone is something I have been meaning to write about for a while, and it is something I have been experimenting with, so here goes.I haven’t had TRT - testosterone replacement therapy - or anything like that, but I have been looking to improve my testosterone levels, and I think I have had some success.Getting your levels up, whether man or woman, will make you feel A LOT better.Physically, higher testosterone levels mean more energy, more muscle, more fat burn, better sleep, better cardiovascular health and blood flow, better bone density and less inflammation. These are all super important once you pass 50.You’re stronger, basically.Mentally, with more testosterone, your concentration improves, you become more targeted - that’s another way of saying your focus improves (I don’t like the word focus) - your spirits are higher, your confidence improves, you get bolder, more assertive and more driven. I have noticed improvements to all of the above.One thing, in particular, I have also noticed is a lower tolerance of fools, a higher appetite for risk and much more of a DNGAF attitude, which is something I’ve always wished I had more of. I had a blood test in September 2023 and it showed my testosterone level as 577 ng/dL. The normal range is 200-750ng/dL. An athlete in his early 20s might have levels above that. So my levels were above average - upper-middle - without being amazing. Testosterone peaks at 18 (probably why young men get into such trouble), then declines ever after. After 30 it declines at 1% per annum. But once you pass 45 - take note - there is an acceleration in decline. That is what we need to address.I haven’t done another test, but I know my levels have improved. I can feel it. And I think I am well above 600ng/dL.Here is how to improve your testosterone1. ExerciseLift weightsRegular strength training boosts testosterone production, especially in the short term. Resistance training stimulates muscle growth, which signals the body to release more testosterone. Intensity matters - heavier weights with lower reps has a bigger impact. Compound movements such as squats, press-ups, bench presses and deadlifts are particularly effective.SprintSprints are more effective than light jogging. In fact, any kind of HIIT is good. I usually jog for 2 or 3 miles then do 4 30-second sprints up a hill at the end. It takes me about half an hour in total. Short, maximum-effort sprints (even just 6-10 seconds at 90-100% effort) with full recovery periods (1-2 minutes) work best. Play some competitive sportAny kind of competitive sport is good. Tennis, table tennis even. I still play footy - 6-a-side. I’ve found in the last year I am going in for challenges that I would not have attempted ten years ago.But, of the above three, resistance training is the most important.2. Other habitsSleepGood sleep is as important as exercise, perhaps even more so. The majority of your testosterone is produced when you are asleep. 7-9 hours is optimal. 5-6 hours and your levels drop by 10-15% in just a few days. One 2011 study found young men restricted to 5 hours of sleep had testosterone levels closer to someone 10-15 years older.My guide to sleeping better is here, but … go to bed an hour earlier.Use mouthtape when you sleep - breathing through your nose is better for testosterone. Lord knows why but that’s what the bros say.What next?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comAt the moment it is relentless. I suppose I should take it as a compliment, but every day, sometimes several times per day some new account masquerading as me pops up. I block, report and delete as soon as I get wind of it, but I can’t be in front of my computer 24/7. Please be aware: I don’t use Telegram. I never invite people to chat on WhatsApp. So if somebody who appears to be me solicits you to join them on Telegram, WhatsApp or anywhere else, it is not me. It is someone who is trying to scam you.Let me start today’s note with a very warm welcome to the many new readers who have signed up the Flying Frisby. Many have signed up because of the recent promotion for Lifetime Membership. That ends today, so if it’s caught your eye, time is running out. For a one-off payment of just £450/$570 you will get full access to the Flying Frisby for life.Click the button below and you will see the option - I stress this is a one-off paymentToday, with stock markets looking very wobbly indeed, I thought it would be a good time to check in on the Dolce Far Niente portfolio.Dolce Far Niente, as I’m sure you know, means “the sweetness of doing nothing”, and the idea was to create a strong, long-term portfolio * which will grow and thrive* with which you will not have to constantly tinker* about which you will not to have to constantly worry. You can just leave it alone and let it be.It emphasises strategic asset allocation - being in the right market - above individual stock picking.So, with so many new readers, and with it being six months since we last looked, let’s check in on it today.1 Gold (15% allocation)Gold is the ultimate Dolce Far Niente asset. It does nothing but sit there and look sweet. The shine may be coming off everything else, but it will never come off gold. It’s up 55% since inception in October 2023 and going strong.My firm belief is that everyone should own some gold. Especially now.My guide to investing in gold is here. If you are looking to buy gold, try the Pure Gold Company.2. Bitcoin (5% allocation)HODL is another way of saying Dolce Far Niente, and, even with the current shake out, bitcoin has been another winner. It has more than tripled since inception (a 233% gain).Some will argue bitcoin has no place in a “low risk” portfolio such as this. I’d argue that the greater risk is not owning bitcoin.For those in the UK who can’t buy it directly or buy the ETFs, our vehicle to play bitcoin via a UK-broker, and circumvent/satisfy ill-conceived-FCA regulation, was to own Nasdaq-listed Strategy Inc (Nasdaq:MSTR).This is one volatile stock, and the chart now looks nasty, but its President Michael Saylor is a genius. He embraces volatility, seeing it as a feature not a flaw. And the company has been another winner, up 9x since the inception of the portfolio, even after the recent correction.By the way, Strategy is proving a leading indicator for bitcoin - it was already falling when bitcoin was re-testing its old high. That makes it a super-useful forecaster. Take note.3. Special Situations (10%)This is the fun/painful part of the portfolio. Lightbridge (NASDAQ:LTBR) was a big winner here, as was and the tax-loss trade (time to exit this one if you haven’t already). Junior miners, Condor and tax-loss trade aside, continue to suck.By the way, check out this nuts Lightbridge chart. The bots must have got hold of it. Surely one be one to buy on the dips and exit on the spikes.4. Uranium (5% allocation, reduced to 2.5%)I reduced the uranium allocation to 2.5% in February 2024, because it all felt too frothy. That has proved a good decision, as the price has since come down. We are in proper bear market now.I don’t like uranium miners. Most of them will not see any production for years, decades even and are, therefore, drains on capital. We own the metal itself.

Another video for this Sunday morning, based on the very popular New Year’s How To Win piece. I hope you draw some inspiration from it. (I meant to put it out in Jan, but didn’t).Please like, watch, share and all those other things.All the bestDominicPS Could I draw your attention to a couple of things…Lifetime Membership Many people do not know about this, so, for one week only, I am running promotion. For a one-off payment of just £450/$570 you will get full access to the Flying Frisby for life. Click the button below and you will see the option - I stress this is a one-off paymentPlease consider upgrading your subscription - and if one of last year’s flyers - Lightbridge, Novavax or Microstrategy worked for you, then consider this a way of saying thank you!PPS As always, if buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company with whom I have an affiliation deal. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.PPPS This week’s commentary about my recent experiences in the US and, in particular, Tesla, went down a storm. ICYMI here it is: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe