Santiago Millán, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management, one of the largest asset managers in the world, joins Kopi Time to talk about China. Whether it is the macro outlook, space for further stimulus, policy stance, state of financial markets, regulatory framework, great power rivalry, tech war, green transition, or the overall investment thesis on the country, Santiago has nuanced insights to offer. His key point is to appreciate the complexities of a large, consequential, and rapidly evolving economy and society like China. Broad-brushed analysis almost always gets it wrong; we need to think deeply when it comes to China’s medium term direction, especially with respect to its undeniable role in global trade, technology, and movement of capital.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Helge Muenkel, Chief Sustainability Officer at DBS, responsible for developing the bank’s overarching sustainability framework, joins Kopi Time. We begin by talking about current state of climate finance, the magnitude of funding needed to carry out meaningful green transition, and the various source of funding in the pipeline. Helge walks us through the key pillars of climate finance, including bonds, blended finance, grants, and carbon credits. We talk about the thorny issue of just transition, along with the role of governments and corporates in this journey. We then dive into banks’ role in coal phase-out, an enormously complex issue. We end by considering the encouraging climate mitigation and finance related developments in the US, Europe, China, and Singapore.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mustafa Chowdhury, who has held senior positions at Voya Investments, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns and Freddie Mac, brings his deep fixed income expertise to Kopi Time. We start with his takeaways from the debt ceiling drama, which Mustafa argues left President Biden the winner. He however remains unconvinced that a meaningful debt consolidation is likely in the coming years, given the ballooning expenditure needs ahead. He then offers his insights on the information content embedded in the deeply inverted yield curve, weighing on recession probability versus fixed income strategy of institutional investors. Mustafa believes that market pricing on inflation expectations is too sanguine, and a better gauge is consumer survey based expectation measures. Building on that, he expects sticky inflation and a “higher for longer” narrative for interest rates. Having said that, he is not uniformly bearish US fixed income, pointing out pockets of value in various products and strategies. Mustafa also weighs in on financial stability, systemwide liquidity, relative value, and portfolio allocation. Can’t-miss insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This series began right before the 2020 global pandemic, and at that time the idea was to record chats with thinkers I meet during my travels. I really doubt if I’d have a hundred episodes under that model of operation. But once the pandemic broke out, remote recording with guests all over the world became acceptable, and away we went. Now 100 episodes is a lot, and there have some really memorable ones. We have covered our bread and butter, global macro and markets, in 41 episodes, but we have gone way beyond that as well. Given the times we live in, we have had a dozen episodes on geopolitics, eight on tech and fintech, and a dozen on climate change, an issue close to my heart. Beyond that, we have covered banking, energy, metals, crypto, financial inclusion, health, science and innovation, gender, and wealth management. Quite the breadth, never a dull moment! In this episode, we review the top-10 most downloaded and viewed episodes on Kopi Time.  The number 1 in this ranking, in fact, has over 175k views and nearly 900 comments on youtube! Thanks to our listeners for their support and kind encouragement for this series.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kopi Time hits 100 episodes! Raghuram Rajan, Professor at the University of Chicago, former Governor, Reserve Bank of India (2013-16), former IMF Chief Economist (2003-06), returns to our podcast to talk about the risks building up in global finance and economy. We begin with duration mismatch risks causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and nonbank financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and a half, followed by some tightening? Why haven’t post-GFC regulations stemmed such risks from materialising? What are the indicators to watch going forward, and what can policy makers do at this point? What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting, and where do emerging market economies fit into all this? While this discussion focuses largely on financial sector stress and central banking, Professor Rajan also weighs in on the issue of sovereign debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of developing countries, with critical roles to be played by creditor nations and multilateral organisations. Very few thinkers have been as prescient as Raghuram Rajan in capturing the fault lines in modern finance; it was a privilege to have him on the show in such momentous times.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and Director, Institute for Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, returns to Kopi Time. Recorded in New York City on April 15, the discussion begins with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East’s complex relationship with Russia. Prof Haykel then elaborates on China’s role in the region, especially the recent mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Ongoing strife in Israel is yet again adding tension to the region; Prof Haykel sheds light on the difficulty this poses to the region’s leaders. We go over Opec’s recent decision to cut production, which appears to be divergent from US interests. The region clearly has a lot going on as it manoeuvres through domestic development imperatives and brewing great power rivalry. Prof Haykel also gives a preview of his forthcoming book on contemporary changes in Saudi Arabia, which we’re sure will be a must-read.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prem Bhatia, co-founder of Graas, a tech solution provider for e-commerce, joins Kopi Time to talk about the direction of data driven e-commerce and issues facing start-ups at the current macro backdrop. He draws on his decades-long experience as an entrepreneur and investor to make the case for data and artificial intelligence-driven solutions in the fragmented ecommerce markets in India and South-East Asia. He recognises the dark clouds looming as market correction and banking sector difficulties translate into substantially higher cost of early stage capital. Consequently, growth above all has been replaced by a welcome focus on profitable growth. At the same time, Prem remains encouraged by the wide range of promising ideas and solutions percolating around the region. He is keen to press the idea that innovation requires capital looking for both value and growth. Current selloff and higher cost of capital may well differentiate and lift up some of the best companies in the region. He considers the convergence of e-commerce and advertisement, catalysed by data analytics, as a major, consequential trend. We then discuss the present and future of data privacy, regulation, Tik Tok, and generative/predictive AI. Final word: “the ability to increase productivity is what AI delivers... AI will kill process managers by automating process management.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I sat down with former Finance Minister of Indonesia, Chatib Basri, at the DBS Indonesia Asian Insights Forum 2023, held on March 15. During the conversation, Mr. Basri provided a brief presentation about the outlook for Indonesia in the context of global macroeconomic developments. He explained the Indonesian economy’s middle path, neither high- nor low-single digit growth, by taking into account resilient domestic demand and still-positive commodity exports outlook. Consequently, when there are global headwinds, Indonesia tends to outperform due to its low-beta nature. The flipside is during a global upswing, Indonesia tends to underperform. On climate change and green financing, Mr. Basri underscored the daunting challenges ahead, along with the massive domestic/external and private/public/multilateral financing needed.  Removing fossil fuel subsidy is key, despite the political impediments. He then expanded on the possible opportunities for regional trade and manufacturing around China-US tension. Asean has to be united in setting rules for trade or commerce while dealing with China-US tension. We then have a back and forth on the investment environment, need for a balance between industrial policy and private sector incentives, the importance of the services sector, e-commerce, techno-nationalism, 2024 elections and the economic impact of campaign finance, strength of Indonesia’s financial system in light of global market selloff, and the role of regulatory policy to deal with that. Final word from Mr. Basri: “Investing in Indonesia is very dangerous, because it is very addictive.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greg Wells, Chief Operating Officer of TIGER 21, a peer membership organisation for high-net-worth wealth individuals, joins Kopi Time. He provides an overview of this collective (minimum member wealth of USD100mn), in which members learn from one-another the risks and opportunities worldwide. An internally transparent and yet confidential organisational structure brings together 1200+ wealth creators for networking and learning. We then explore the genesis of TIGER 21 and its area of operation. Greg walks us through the membership process, the commitments members make, what one gets and contributes in the organisation, and the “portfolio defense” approach. Underlying the nitty gritty of wealth preservation and legacy planning is the desire to make a mark, to grow, and to belong in a community. Rather universal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shaokai Fan returns to Kopi Time to talk about gold’s recent journey through inflation spike, war in Ukraine, weaponization of the USD, monetary policy tightening, and soaring interest rates. We talk about supply conditions, ongoing reforms to add greater transparency and sustainability, and the structure of the gold market. Shaokai then sheds light on the evolving nature of gold demand, both cyclical, as China and India come out of the pandemic, and structural, as individuals and financial institutions consider gold as a geopolitical hedge. Immensely fascinating.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.