Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund, breaks down the prospects for the region. We begin by talking about the coverage of the department, which is 37 countries, making up of half the world’s population. We then dive into the 2023 balance of risks, which the IMF sees still tilted to the downside, but with a welcome decline in adverse risks. On the upside, Krishna expresses optimism about post-pandemic re-opening helping demand, while headline inflation softens at a pace faster than previously envisaged. On the downside, concerns remain about Russia’s war in Ukraine, tighter global financing costs, various distortions posed by forces of deglobalisation, and lingering uncertainties around inflation. We then do a tour of Asia, starting with the two countries that are under IMF programs, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Krishna explains that state of macroeconomic affairs and the lending facilities being deployed in both cases. In this context, he also elaborates on the IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust. After this, we take on, one by one, the challenges and promises of Japan, China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore. We cover it all--inflation, debt, monetary policy, property markets, corporate governance, human capital, and deglobalisation. A thorough macro health-check of Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bert Hofman, Director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore and former World Bank Country Director for China (2014-19), provides a sweeping overview of China’s outlook and key risks ahead.  We begin with several nuances to the evolution of China’s zero-Covid policy and economic policies in the near term. Bert then offers insights into the property sector, and fiscal-structural policies that are likely to be deployed to deal its debt overhang.    In his professional role, Bert devotes considerable time analysing China’s fiscal position and reforms outlook; here he walks us through tax reforms and spending imperatives that are in the pipeline. We then move on to tech sector regulation, green transition policies and strategies, and the legacy of the Belt and Road initiative. We end our wide ranging conversation with some reflections on the direction and unintended consequences of the rivalry between China and the US. A must-listen for China observers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to 2023, dear Kopi Time followers! We kick off the new year with a chat on markets with seasoned trader and strategist, Archana Parekh, head of Asia Equities, ex-Japan, Balyasny Asset Management. We begin the discussion on the inevitability of market selloff in 2022, dragged by rates increases and lofty valuations. Archana does not think the highly correlated selloff across asset classes reflected much more than the fact that during the run-up in recent years, all asset classes had rallied with high correlation as well. We then talk about her broadly constructive outlook for equities in 2023, around Fed policy pause, China re-opening, and a fairly stable energy market. Yet, Archana does not see a major bull market ahead, given the numerous macro, geopolitical, and regulatory uncertainties in place. We then drill down to US tech, China tech, and Japan tech, each with their potential upside and idiosyncratic risks. We touch on frontier technologies and innovations, going over opportunities around them. Archana then weighs in on the age-old question of active versus passive investing, pointing out that one approach does not fill all investors. We conclude by talking about women in finance, something she supports passionately. Her inclination to look at opportunities calmly and constructively, even as big picture challenges mount, is heartening.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Caution: You may need a strong cup of Kopi after listening to our year-ending podcast with Dr. Nouriel Roubini, an economist and market analyst, who famously called the severity of the sub-prime crisis back in 2008 and has been warning about the fragility of the crypto ecosystem in recent years.  But it is essential listening, as a recent review of his book, MegaThreats, points out: “Roubini’s warnings may be alarmingly scary, but they are also disturbingly plausible” (John Thornhill, Financial Times). We begin with his sobering assessment of the near term outlook, with recession risks rising in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind, along with China with its struggles to reopen the economy. Nouriel does not see inflation easing sufficiently in the near term, and envisages an era of “great stagflation” in the coming years. His rationale for structurally higher inflation is wide ranging, from the impact of deglobalisation to aging, along with green transition and populism.  He also sees a looming debt crisis like no other, with the US, Europe, and China already overleveraged, teetering on the brink of cascading defaults and financial market contagion. He fears fiscal and monetary policy errors, great power rivalry, pandemic, climate change, cyber warfare, and financial instability holding back growth and prosperity in the coming decades, unless technological advances and welfare enhancing policies offset those headwinds. Nouriel worries that the period of global prosperity enjoyed since the end of the second world war is coming to an end; let’s hope he is wrong, but let’s also heed his warnings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, joins Kopi Time to discuss the economic dimensions of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. We begin by going over Ukraine’s economic size and structure, followed by the depth of the economic and societal damage inflicted by this conflict. We then talk about the massive short- and medium-term funding needs for Ukraine’s sustainability and rebuilding. Dr. Becker’s institute has been exploring the various dimensions of funding Ukraine, from the appropriate distribution channels to governance concerns; he elaborates on them. We move on to the impact of sanctions and potential oil price cap on Russia. We then go over the economics of sanction and the state of Europe’s energy supply and policy response for this winter. As the most significant global security event of 2022, it is fitting that we conclude with Dr. Becker’s outlook for this conflict in 2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast was recorded in early November, on the sidelines of the Singapore Fintech Festival 2022. It was fitting in the spirit of the event to have Stuart Haber join Kopi Time. Dr Haber, along with Scott Stornetta, co-invented the blockchain technique in 1990, which was later adopted by Satoshi Nakamoto as the basic mechanism for data integrity in Bitcoin. We begin the conversation travelling back over three decades, to understand the problem and motivation that drove Haber and Stornetta toward the blockchain. It is clear even as young coders and crypographers, their ambition was high and their goal was to have transformative and lasting impact on the way civilisation’s records are stored. We then talk about the seminal moment in 2008, when the Satoshi white paper came out, and Dr Haber’s take on it then (and now). We tackle the questions of a crypto bubble, Bitcoin’s adverse environmental impact (and possible solutions around it), proliferation of tech solutions looking for a problem, and the applications that appeal to him. Dr. Haber talks about his current research, and takes on my question on the potential impact of quantum computing on cryptograhy-based record authentication. A brilliant mind with outstanding insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Lynn Loo, Professor in Engineering at Princeton University and head of Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) in Singapore, joins Kopi Time to talk about international shipping’s transition to a low-/zero-carbon future. Shipping accounts for 90% of global trade and is the sixth largest carbon emitter as a sector, hence the stakes are high. Dr Loo talks about the targets in place at the international level, as well as the current and frontier technologies that can take us toward zero-emission shipping in the long-term. We then move on to the issue carbon capture, which is tantalising in potential, but also comes with thorny issues like cost, storage, and disposal. We discuss the role of carbon taxes and broader regulations in facilitating green transition, some of the promising pilots and studies undertaken by GCMD (Biofuel, ammonia bunkering, retrofit solutions, and wind-assisted propulsion). We end with Dr. Loo’s pragmatic vision of a multi-fuel future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This 10-minute commentary summarises my key impressions from the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC. Held amid the background of rising interest rates, currency market volatility, developing country debt distress, great power rivalry, war in Ukraine, and risk of financial instability, the mood was largely grim during the meetings. Silver linings include relative resiliency of large emerging market economies, strong push for infrastructure investment, and an energised climate change agenda. But above all, it was about the US. The US society may have internal chasms, and some of its political institutions and processes may have weakened in recent years, but as far as the rest of the world is concerned, US monetary and financial market policy, US demand, US industrial policy, and US sanctions loom above just about all other considerations. To me, US assertiveness characterised these meetings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Marsh, Chairperson of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) joins Kopi Time to go over the UK’s recent bout with extraordinary currency and rates volatility. Mincing no words, David provides a strong critique of the policy choices and communications that have pushed the UK economy on weak footing, leaving it vulnerable to financial stability risks. We talk about past cases of devaluation (especially the 1992 Sterling crisis that David has written about extensively) and consider the parallels and lessons. We then discuss the myriad of risks hovering over Europe, from war to energy insecurity to debt overhang among the peripheral economies. David has a sobering outlook for the global economy, with recession looming and global coordination largely absent. Not many silver linings, other than lessons learnt.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ila Patnaik, Chief Economist, Aditya Birla Group, joins Kopi Time to discuss a number of pertinent aspects of India’s economy. We talk about the current macro situation in the face of rising interest rates and tensions in the currency market. We then move on to India’s somewhat restrained policy response during the pandemic, and the expedited embrace of digital payments and service delivery. Ila is a realist on the frictional cost of economic formalisation, recognising that there will be losers. The challenge then becomes to ensure a minimal safety net for those being left behind. She is optimistic about the investment outlook but also cautious about absorptive capacity. From her perspective, 3-4% of GDP worth of FDI is fine, but more than that would be problematic to manage. We then discuss the state of financial sector reform, something Ila has been involved with for over a decade. We move on to discuss Ila’s book, co-written with union minister Bhupender Yadav, The Rise of the BJP: The Making of the World's Largest Political Party, which examines the politics of welfare payments. Ila points out the benefits that come from corruption-free, efficient social service delivery and frequent social audits, which is a valuable lesson for modern democratic parties. We end with Ila’s vision for India, which is highly promising to her due to a massive demographic advantage. This key to maintain a well-educated, healthy, and aspirational population.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.