Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

We hear about the subject of the moment from Microsoft’s Asia head of business development, Zia Zaman. We begin with the question if the world has been transformed in a comparable manner in the past year and a half as the smartphone and Appstore revolution achieved during 2007/08. Zia argues the transformation has been similar in influencing corporate strategy and productivity enhancement potential. We discuss the unparalleled cost and investment associated with operationalising and commercialising Large Language Models. Zia walks us through multiple stages of tech introduction, adoption, and value creation, with most still in the pipeline for GenAI. We talk about the compute needs and carbon footprint of running GenAI models, and the role of regulation in balancing business and public interests. Finally, Zia talks about the depth and breadth of the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft. Fascinating insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mitchell Presnick, a visiting fellow of practice at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, joins Kopi Time to bring much needed pragmatism to the China-US discourse. Mitch, researching the future of US- China commercial relations in the post-engagement era, is no China apologist. But his decades of doing business in China have given him a realistic view on where engagement and symbiosis make sense. We discuss Mich’s days building a business in China in the 1990s, the playbook he suggests to American businesses, and his take on US policy. Stressing that “de-risking does not mean decoupling,” Mitch wants the two nations to attain positive sum outcomes. May his views get amplified.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recorded in Jakarta, Kopi Time delves into Indonesia’s elections, domestic and foreign policy, investment environment, and economy with Kevin O'Rourke, Principle, PT Reformasi Information Services. Kevin’s team has provided independent political risk consultancy for many years, and he demonstrates his deep insights in this far-reaching conversation. We begin with the recently concluded elections, and what one can expect from President Prabowo’s administration, from balancing geopolitics to the nation’s aspiration to climb to a much higher level of income, prosperity, and welfare. Kevin provides sober-eyed assessment on the strategies announced so far. We discuss Indonesia’s democratic process, industrial policy, populist measures, fossil fuel industry, green transition potential, and the legacy of outgoing President Jokowi. Kevin’s take on Indonesia is by no means negative, but certainly cautious and couched with concerns informed by his scrutiny of this country’s ups and downs over two decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today’s episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks’ Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore’s population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI and quantum computing, and their potential disrupting impact on cybersecurity. We end with Nic laying out the best practice corporate strategies to manage digital risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies.  On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan’s monetary policy, and Europe’s difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the  key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world’s two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Henny Sender, after several decades of writing on international finance for the Finance Times and Wall Street Journal, presently runs Apsara Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. She joins Kopi Time to talk about her sense of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, especially the weakness in consumer sentiment. While recognising the wisdom behind self-reliance and trade openness, Henny flags several areas of concern, including property and stock market woes, as well as regulatory overhang. On Hong Kong, where she has lived for many years, Henny is blunt in her assessment. She sees substantial room available for the public sector to address affordable housing, an issue that is at the heart of the city’s competitiveness. On India, Henny sees a welcome rise in aspiration and optimism. She would however like to see more efforts to scale up manufacturing, address climate risks, and reduce protectionism for local industries.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven’t changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People’s Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core. In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cumulus emissions savings over the next decade from publicly listed companies in Asia Pacific. We discuss how the coalition would work, what would motivate institutional investors and companies to join it, and where Munib sees the initiative standing at the end of 2025. This is real work for real change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.