In March 2023, many experts supported an open letter that called for a six-month pause in giant AI experiments, and that development of these AIs should go ahead “only once we are confident that their effects will be positive, and their risks will be manageable”. In the second of our podcasts recorded at the 79th EP Panel, Tim Phillips asks Joshua Gans of the University of Toronto what might happen if we did pause AI adoption, and whether we should instead accelerate adoption of AI so that we can more quickly learn about its benefits and harms, and design better regulation as a result.

Recorded at the Spring 2024 Economic Policy Panel Meeting.  What will be the impact of AI on the labour market? Two new papers use the evidence from the early years of the 21st century to analyse who the winners and losers have been so far. Gino Gancia and Juan Jimeno analyse the labour markets of the US and Europe and tell Tim Phillips who the winners and losers have been so far.

This year’s World Economic Outlook report from the IMF features an intriguing piece of research that shows how rising policy rates bit harder in some countries than other because of differences in how existing mortgages are calculated, new mortgages are granted, and house prices. Rui Mano from the IMF’s Research Department tells Tim Phillips about how the housing channels of monetary policy help to squeeze out inflation, the variable impacts of rate hikes, and the risk of overtightening when householders can fix their mortgage repayments.

The Spanish Civil War that ended in 1939 was brutal and destructive. But does it still affect how Spanish people think and behave today, three generations later? Felipe Valencia Caicedo and Ana Tur-Prats talk to Tim Phillips about a legacy of distrust and poisoned political beliefs. Photo credit: Generalitat de Catalunya 

Bill English, editor of the ebook, discusses how central banks responded to post-pandemic inflation. Topics include contrasting approaches of emerging vs. advanced economies, forecasting inflation during supply shocks, and tools used by central banks like interest rates and asset purchases. Lessons for policymakers in dealing with future inflation challenges are emphasized.

Finance professor Alex Edmans discusses the mispricing of carbon transition risk in markets, highlighting how high emitters may be outperforming. The conversation explores the complexities of balancing social good with shareholder returns in ESG investments and the challenges faced by long-term investors in driving decarbonization efforts.

Bank experts Steven Ongena and Anna Pestova discuss how banks handle disasters like wars, pandemics, and natural calamities. They explore the impact of armed conflicts on financial systems, the effects of sanctions on banks, and strategies to manage risks from pandemics and natural disasters. The podcast highlights the importance of banks in providing crucial credit during emergencies and the need to enhance regulatory frameworks for disaster preparedness.

Exploring debt sustainability amidst Covid-19 and Ukraine war. Can existing institutions handle it? Analysis of debt burdens in EU countries and necessary fiscal adjustments. Governance reforms in EU and concerns over new legislation. Navigating debt challenges and climate implications. Economic policy shifts and global market impacts.

Are men from Mars, and women from Venus? If so, policies that seek to close the gender gap by equalising opportunities are unlikely to succeed. A recent paper finds that, contrary to popular belief, women and men’s traits are remarkably similar. Ruveyda Nur Gozen and Tim Phillips talk to Michelle Rao and Oriana Bandiera, two of the researchers who wrote the paper, about prejudice, policy, and the stubborn persistence of prior beliefs.  Papers mentioned in the podcast: Bandiera, O., Parekh, N., Petrongolo, B., & Rao, M. (2022). Men are from Mars, and Women Too: A Bayesian Meta‐analysis of Overconfidence Experiments. Economica, 89, S38-S70. (link to paper) Bandiera, O., Fischer, G., Prat, A., & Ytsma, E. (2016). Do women respond less to performance pay? Building evidence from multiple experiments. (link to paper) Rao, M. (2021) Gender Differences in altruism: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of dictator games. Mimeo Bayer, A., Hoover, G. A., & Washington, E. (2020). How you can work to increase the presence and improve the experience of Black, Latinx, and Native American people in the economics profession. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34(3), 193-219. (link to paper) Bursztyn, L., González, A. L., & Yanagizawa-Drott, D. (2020). Misperceived social norms: Women working outside the home in Saudi Arabia. American economic review, 110(10), 2997-3029. (link to paper) Diaz-Pardo, G., Rao, M. (2024). Women and Cash Transfers: how program design and local conditions relate to causal estimates of impact.  Field, E., Jayachandran, S., & Pande, R. (2010). Do traditional institutions constrain female entrepreneurship? A field experiment on business training in India. American Economic Review, 100(2), 125-129. Stansbury, A., & Schultz, R. (2023). The economics profession’s socioeconomic diversity problem. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 37(4), 207-230. (link to paper)

It is 12 months since the sudden downfall of Credit Suisse, one of a tiny number of Too Big to Fail global banks. Beatrice Weder di Mauro was one of an expert team who were asked by the Swiss Department of Finance to investigate the crisis and resolution. She talks to Tim Phillips about what they discovered, and the lessons we ignore at our peril.