Beyond Markets

In addition to the typical seasonal tailwinds from the Chinese New Year, three key factors are also driving the recent rally in Chinese equity markets: the better-than-feared impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, growing domestic optimism following the release of China’s DeepSeek AI, and rising policy expectations ahead of the National People’s Congress in March.Join Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, as they dive each of these key developments shaping China's market landscape.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Research Analyst at Julius Baer, highlights how Chinese AI start up DeepSeek has upended traditional assumptions underpinning growth in the AI sector. This spells opportunities and risks for players in different parts of the supply chain. In other developments, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at its January Open Market Committee Meeting hints at possible inflation pressures, while President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are classic shock and awe tactics that herald the start of a period of political noise and uncertainty.

Every day we read new statistics about how much investment is needed to maintain ageing infrastructure and to build new infrastructure that will keep pace with modern economies.  Governments can only provide a portion of the trillions of US dollars needed every year, making private investment essential.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Introduction to Private Infrastructure’, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Advisors, Julius Baer talks to Tara Courtney Davies, Partner and Co-Head of KKR EMEA and Co-Head European Infrastructure, about private infrastructure: what it is, as well as its relevance to investors. In their conversation they discuss the important dynamics and developments investors should know about, and the role it can play in a sophisticated portfolio.00:41 Introduction to speakers and topic01:42 What is infrastructure?02:27 What characterises infrastructure assets?03:43 Global infrastructure needs04:24 Tailwinds fuelling infrastructure investment06:02 The role of private investment06:34 Private infrastructure investment in a portfolio context08:43 Risks to consider when investing in infrastructure 10:34 Incorporating infrastructure assets into appropriate portfolios11:43 Considerations regarding semi-liquid investment products12:46 ConclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets have had a busy week as we approach the Chinese New Year of the Wood Snake. The US Dollar index started to move lower after President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on China. Meanwhile, the US economy remains robust, and US equities are jumping on earnings wins by the most since 2018.In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on the back on domestic wage pressures and core inflation which remains firmly above the 2% target. Over in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time since 2021.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

There was a clear relief rally in both the stock and rates market, following softer-than-expected US CPI numbers last week. In the grand scheme of things however, asset pricings have swung between growth and inflation or policy shocks over the past year. In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, discusses the significant treasury moves over the past year, the implications of the latest CPI print, and what to watch out in rates and equities markets.

Cracks in market sentiment have begun to surface in the first three weeks of 2025. A slew of negative headlines and rumours include the outgoing Biden administration placing several Chinese tech giants on the “Chinese Military Companies” list, and the tariff threats from the incoming Trump administration continue to be an overhang on markets. How do we see the US-China trade relationship in 2025, and how should investors position accordingly? Our experts also discuss the key US inflationary drivers to watch out for in 2025, and the path for the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities given the recent policy announcements from the People’s Bank of China. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of the week in markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger-than-​expected non-farm payrolls data for December has pushed up Treasury yields, resulting in a yawning gap in US and Chinese government bond yields. This has put downward pressure on the Chinese Yuan – although it is not the only currency in Asian expected to soften. The Singapore Dollar, hitherto one of the stronger currencies in Asia, is also likely to weaken this year as inflation ebbs. US consumer and producer price inflation data out this week, and Q4 2024 earnings releases by financial heavyweights will likely determine if the US equity market can trek higher. 

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate and Intelligence, to discuss the latest developments in real estate and how investing in the ‘living’ sector can also be an investment in your quality of life. Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership.

The S&P 500 index’s internal indicators signal a top may be in the making. After two years of returns in excess of 20%, the index trades at a pricey forward price/earnings ratio of 22x. Renewed inflation concerns could be a catalyst for a serious correction. We remain fully invested but contemplate reducing risk at some point in the year. While the consensus among Wall Street strategists is that the S&P will rise 12% this year, studies show their accuracy as a group is less than 50%. As a group, they’ve also never predicted a down year, while in fact one in four years has historically had a negative return.

In its December 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve signalled that inflation is going to be higher than it expected. If the Fed has to raise rates again at some point next year, the market would not like that at all. The S&P 500 index has returned 60% in the last 2 years, and is trading at valuations seen only in the dot-com and pandemic stimulus booms.But the final phase of a bull market can last a painfully long time for those who try to be contrarian. We remain invested, but contemplate reducing risk at some point in 2025. It will be a year of capital preservation, after 2 years of capital growth.