Beyond Markets

The US equity market defied expectations of September seasonal weakness, with the S&P 500 index gaining 4% this month. With the exception of India, many global markets have also seen gains, with US, Hong Kong and Japan up 30% in USD terms since April , Europe up 20%, Korea and Taiwan up 50%. In this episode of The Week in Markets, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, considers if we should ride this momentum in the Chinese equity markets. He examines investor flows and positioning, asset re-allocation trends from domestic retail investors, and recent market pullbacks in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors. He also looks ahead at key fourth quarter events and catalysts to watch – such as the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, and the Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party. Richard also highlights Julius Baer’s latest views on Singapore equities, which we have recently upgraded to Overweight. Please also check out our recent episode on the Singapore dollar and equities at the following links:Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/singapore-dollar-small-but-mighty/id1552236298?i=1000728312662Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Io10QxFwEkbNQzJNDUpbM?si=rwR9CLdoQISPC79v8SKAGQ

Jen-Ai Chua, a Singapore-based equity research analyst, shares insights on the Singapore dollar's strength and its potential as a safe-haven currency. She discusses its impressive long-term performance and resilience during crises. Jen-Ai explains the managed float policy by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and how capital inflows and economic fundamentals bolster the currency. Investors can explore opportunities in SING dollar bonds and Singapore's equity market, particularly focusing on quality growth companies with dividends. A must-listen for anyone looking to diversify their investment strategy!

The US Federal Reserve resumed its rate cut cycle last week with a widely expected 25bp rate cut. Julius Baer expects four further rate cuts through March 2026, pausing at 3.25%, while the markets are pricing in slightly more aggressive easing. Against a backdrop of rapidly falling short-term rates and rising re-investment risk, 5-7 year bonds emerge as the sweet spot – offering a balance of yield and volatility amid a steepening curve. In credit markets, the tight spreads between corporates and Treasuries aren’t just a sign of strong corporate demand, but also reflect weakening Treasury appeal. When benchmarked against swaps, the implied corporate credit spreads appear more normal, supporting continued inflows into investment-grade corporate bonds. In equities, the rally in lower-quality and non-profitable tech stocks suggests that the market has been expecting and pricing in looser monetary policy conditions. However, a reversal may be due, and it may be time for quality stocks to outperform again. Notably, despite strong gains, valuations of the Magnificent 7 stocks remain below prior bubble peaks. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

The 10-year treasury yield is breaking down as it anticipates rate cuts. This is mostly due to a tightening job market, especially for entry-level candidates and young people. We look for a series of rate cuts, starting this week and ending next March. An interesting statistic to note: in the 20 other times since 1980 when the Fed cut at, or near an all-time high in the S&P 500 index, the index was up a year later in every case.Meanwhile, global fund manager interest in China is high, but it’s been so long they’ve looked at that market, that they need time to do their homework before investing. Additionally, a weighted average basket of emerging market currencies recently broke a 14-year downward resistance channel.

As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer’s Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.(00:32) - Introduction of topic and speakers (01:12) - Macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day (02:10) - Asia’s macroeconomic picture (05:05) - Year-end headline research calls (05:39) - Developed-market equity preferences (06:09) - Breaking away from the ‘US only’ mindset (06:42) - Emerging market equity sweet spots (08:26) - Where to find value in fixed income (09:10) - Commodities outlook (11:06) - US dollar set to weaken? (11:46) - Dealing with tariff news (12:45) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we take a closer look at agentic AI, which is no longer just a concept. AI agents are actively reshaping how tasks get done, decisions are made, and content is created. These autonomous systems mark a shift from passive AI models to active agents that can reason, act, and self-improve. We are joined by Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.  Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer.

The Nikkei 225 recently reached an all-time high of 43,876, driven by better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, ongoing corporate reforms, and a weaker yen. On September 7, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, triggering a leadership race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). While political uncertainty may weigh on sentiment in the near term, structural tailwinds continue to support Japan’s long-term investment outlook.This episode is presented by Louis Chua, equities research analyst at Julius Baer.

The rapid pace of China's stock market rally in August has sparked concerns of a market bubble forming, with local regulators mulling measures to curb stock speculation. Are these concerns warranted, and is the end of the rally near?The Renminbi, in the meantime, continues to strengthen against the weakening US dollar, and gold has broken out again, making new all-time highs.Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., share their perspectives in this month's edition of China Conversations.

This week’s episode explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting corporate profitability while reshaping the labour market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, S&P 500 revenue per worker has climbed 15% after years of stagnation, but entry-level jobs are increasingly under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s focus has now shifted from inflation towards employment. Our economist expects five rate cuts by March 2026, though policy uncertainty and eroded trust keep our 10-year US Treasury yield forecast steady at 4.25%. History offers many examples of presidential overreach, episodes that typically prove temporary. With the Trump administration set to continue for another three and a half years, however, investors may feel compelled to exercise caution and consider diversifying beyond the US and the traditional financial system, including assets such as gold.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly signalled at Jackson Hole that a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting is likely. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer talks to Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, about what a resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle would mean for bond markets. They also discuss the current fiscal concerns and the expected impact of tariffs on inflation, both in and outside of the US.(00:32) - Introduction (00:50) - What would the resumption of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed mean for bond markets? (02:27) - What impact will the fiscal concerns have? (03:37) - What duration is currently appropriate in a bond portfolio? (04:32) - What impact might tariffs have on fixed income markets? (07:05) - Is the Fed’s independence really in danger? (08:46) - Should investors consider corporate credit exposure? (09:37) - Would exposure to European corporate bonds also be appropriate? (11:11) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.