Beyond Markets

The world is witnessing a rapid shift towards de-globalisation, accelerated in part by the new US administration. Meanwhile, ongoing disputes over tariffs, trade imbalances, and the widening US fiscal deficit continue to dominate global discussions.In this episode of Beyond Markets, Rishabh Saksena, Head of Investment Specialists Asia at Julius Baer, is joined by Vance Serchuk, Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute. They discuss the implications of these issues on the global economy, and examine which regions are well-positioned to thrive amid this increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.  

There has been a significant correction in US markets since mid-February, with the S&P index down around 8%, and the Nasdaq down around 12%. Surprisingly, this has come on the back of reasonably good earnings from the previous quarter and forward-looking guidance. This shift in investor sentiment appears to be driven by rising policy risks, and a decrease in the "Trump put" effect - the market's previous belief that government intervention would support asset prices.In this episode, Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, shares his expectations for markets, sectors we favour, and insights on the bond markets in this uncertain environment. 

Germany’s surprise €500bn infrastructure plan marks a historic break from fiscal restraint, shaking up markets and boosting European stocks.Meanwhile, US economic uncertainty under Trump is fueling recession fears, pushing Treasury yields down and challenging USD strength.We also break down Japan’s bond market surge and what it means for global investors.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

The initial read of the third session of China's 14th National People Congress has been generally in line with economist expectations. Concurrently, ongoing shifts in US policies, especially on tariffs, continue to disrupt the broader macro narrative. Surprisingly, Hong Kong stocks have rallied steadily amidst these developments, whilst US stocks have reacted much more negatively. What is our outlook for these markets, and what does it mean for the US dollar? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. This episode was recorded on 6 March, 2025.

An unprecedented clash between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House last Friday has called into question the strength of the US-Europe relations. Investors are also watching several other key macro events this week – potential additional tariffs from the US on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as China’s “Two Sessions” annual meetings taking place on March 5 and 6. This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

With inflation expectations rising, credit spreads at historical tights, and US Treasury moves dictating market sentiment, how should investors position their portfolios? In this episode, Elaine Ngim, Head of Investment Advisory Singapore at Julius Baer sits down with Jonathan Liang, Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists, Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer to break down the top-of-mind issues in fixed income markets and the corporate credit landscape today. Key topics include:(01:42) - How inflation expectations impact credit markets (04:32) - The outlook for credit spreads – are we due for a widening? (06:16) - Does investment success hinge on getting the US Treasury view right? (08:22) - The US dollar’s strength and its implications for emerging markets (09:49) - Why active management is critical in volatile bond markets (12:12) - Managing volatility to achieve better risk-adjusted returns (13:03) - The evolving role of CDS (13:40) - Lessons from past market drawdowns (14:38) - Common misconceptions about credit investing (16:25) - Key takeaways for equity-focused investors

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the implications of two European-centric developments – the freshly concluded German Federal Elections which has returned the conservatives to power, and the growing likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Both developments are positive for risk, with equities – in particular, cyclical stocks – likely to benefit. Looking ahead, Nvidia’s Q4 2024 earnings numbers, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price data, are both scheduled for release in the coming week. Whether they meet, miss or beat will determine if markets can end February on a positive note.

European stock markets have excelled so far this year but to what extent does this reflect the continent’s economic health and what is the outlook for investing in Europe going forward? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about how he expects inflation in Europe to develop, the European Central Bank’s next steps, and what impact US President Trump’s threat of tariffs might have on the region. They also discuss potential opportunities for investors.00:37 Introduction01:01 Europe’s economy – lack of competitiveness has created downward pressure on wages03:13 Expectations from the ECB05:12 Underlying inflation pressure is weakening06:53 Will a bigger interest rate differential lead to a weaker euro?08:20 Tariff threats and what it means for Europe10:10 Is the lack of competitiveness in Europe partly due to the euro?11:46 What factors may lead to an improvement in the European economy?14:00 Potential opportunities for investors15:28 The automotive industry16:59 Will geopolitics create more challenges or opportunities for Europe?19:15 How significant is the upcoming German election and what could a new government focus on?20:46 SummaryWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Inputs from US inflation indices released last week infer a January core Personal Consumption Expenditure reading of 0.27% month on month, lower than the 0.3% the consensus expects. January retail sales fell 0.9%, the largest decline since March 2023. Together, these data should reverse talk that rates would have to go up again this year. US President Donald Trump is now talking about reciprocal tariffs, which would be much less punitive than the 25% on Canada and Mexico he had been talking about before. US and Russian officials say they will start talks on ending the war in Ukraine in coming days. Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a symposium to boost private sector sentiment this week that will be attended by the big technology company founders/CEOs.

Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data and insights from the Federal Reserve following mixed job reports in the U.S. Meanwhile, China is experiencing a tech-driven market rally thanks to optimistic AI advancements and easing tariff concerns. The conversation shifts to China’s robust economic strategies, forecasting a solid GDP growth. Additionally, the discussion highlights the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin in protecting investments against inflation and systemic risks. It's a blend of global market dynamics and strategic investment insights!