Beyond Markets

Get ready for a whirlwind tour of market dynamics! As President Trump prepares to announce a new Fed Chair, expectations for dovish policies rise. A recent Supreme Court ruling limits nationwide injunctions, shifting executive power. The signed trade deal with China adds another layer to the economic landscape. In the treasury market, potential demand spikes with $5.5 trillion possibly up for grabs, along with new stablecoin regulations that could boost treasury interest. All this makes central bank treasury sales seem less daunting!

Recent headlines about price wars and intense competition in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market have sparked investor concerns about the industry’s future, with many worrying about a race to the bottom. But what’s really going on behind the scenes? In this episode, Louis Chua, investment analyst at Julius Baer, examines the key dynamics, opportunities, and challenges in the Chinese EV sector, and what they mean for the market’s long-term growth prospects.(01:00) - : The “price war” – a race to the bottom? (00:00) - Chapter 2 (03:45) - : Chinese automakers making waves internationally (00:00) - Chapter 4 (04:45) - : Is the Chinese domestic EV market slowing? (00:00) - Chapter 6 (06:00) - : Innovation in Chinese EVs (00:00) - Chapter 8 (07:53) - : The “zero-mileage used cars” problem (00:00) - Chapter 10 (09:55) - : Supplier payment reforms (00:00) - Chapter 12 (10:30) - : Key risks and catalysts to watch

US President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, which prioritised limiting military involvement overseas and avoiding “endless wars,” now appears to have given way to a revival of neo-conservatism, an ideology that holds the US should actively use its power to intervene abroad. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed could cut rates as early as July, because of downside risk to the labour market. A recent Bank of America survey showed fund managers are the most underweight US dollar they have been in the last 20 years. More than half thought international stocks will be the best-performing asset over the next few years.

With tensions escalating in the Middle East, markets are on edge. Are we seeing a fundamental supply shock in oil —or just a sentiment-driven spike? What are the ripple effects on oil trade routes and prices? And will gold continue to benefit as a safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk and central bank demand?Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong, speaks with Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, to unpack the implications for commodities—and what long-term investors should keep in mind.

The global economy is navigating a complex landscape of rising oil prices and increasing inflationary pressures. Following last week's conflict between Israel and Iran, oil prices have surged over 12%, and concerns are growing about the potential impact on economic growth and stability. Yet, despite these challenges, certain economies - such as India's - are demonstrating resilience and attracting investor attention due to their strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The first half of the year has provided investors with ample food for thought, but what’s next and how should investors be positioned for the second half of the year? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, discuss with Helen Freer the impact of the US administration on the global economy, the importance of adopting a global investment approach, and the current opportunities, particularly in the equities and fixed income space.(00:33) - Introduction (00:53) - US policies and what it means for the global economy (03:33) - Risk of a recession (05:03) - Expectations for the US Federal Reserve (06:31) - Investing in equities - diversify (07:44) - Why focus on mid-caps? (10:01) - Opportunities in India and China (11:28) - Why do we like Japan? (12:32) - The importance of stock-picking in the current environment (14:40) - Should gold form part of an investor’s allocation? (15:47) - Where does the US dollar go from here? (17:04) - Is the Swiss franc the ultimate safe-haven currency? (17:44) - What does the global trade policy uncertainty mean for credit spreads? (18:55) - Opportunities in the fixed income space (19:44) - What do we prefer in terms of duration? (20:29) - Opportunities in Euro bonds (20:52) - What’s in store for emerging market debt? (21:34) - Next Generation: a barbell strategy with Extended Longevity and Future of Finance (23:41) - Next Generation: Future Cities (24:15) - Summary (25:29) - Conclusion Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Despite the latest US job data showing resilience, underlying cracks are emerging—highlighted by downward revisions to job growth figures. The stronger-than-expected headline number adds conflicting pressure on the Federal Reserve, complicating the outlook for rate cuts. At the same time, rising yields in Japan and growing concerns over the US fiscal trajectory are prompting investors to seek diversification. With emerging markets and Asian bonds showing strength, the case for quality bonds with moderate duration continues to grow.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The shift in the way the US trades with the world is fundamentally leading to higher inflationary pressures, and in turn causing a weakening US dollar. This has significant implications for investors, and is a risk to the concept of US exceptionalism. In such an environment, we see value in diversifying away from the US in sectors that can be easily replaced. The US, however, remains a leader in the technology sector. In the fixed income space, elevated rates are likely here to stay, which means going for long duration is possibly not ideal. This episode, presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, explores these themes and provides insights for investors navigating this complex landscape.

In this engaging discussion, Kevin You, a seasoned Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors, shares insights into the promising landscape of Chinese equities. He highlights potential policy support and improvements in corporate governance as key drivers for investment. The conversation delves into the state of the Chinese property market, the impact of global portfolio shifts, and the exciting opportunities in AI and robotics. You also addresses emerging trends in semiconductor technology, emphasizing China's push for self-sufficiency.

Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, shares his insights on the unusual Q1 2025 earnings season shaped by tariff disruptions and market uncertainties. He highlights how most companies exceeded expectations despite cautious investor sentiment. Racheter discusses the impacts on capital expenditures, particularly in the semiconductor sector, and offers strategies for navigating a volatile technology market. He also delves into opportunities in undervalued regions and the shifting dynamics toward software investments.