Beyond Markets

US President Donald Trump escalated his open criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sparking concerns about the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile,​​Trump is also ramping up pressure on China, imposing fresh restrictions on the export of Nvidia's H20 AI chips. However, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that US consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, arguably placing him under growing pressure to strike a deal with Beijing.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury moved up 50 basis points last week, representing one of the most significant single-week increases on record. As the US administration's unpredictable tariff policies continue to unsettle markets, how can investors navigate this challenging investment landscape?Steve Wang, Fixed Income Specialist Asia at Julius Baer, sits down with Esteban Burbano, Managing Director and Fixed Income Strategist at PIMCO, to discuss the current economic picture, the impact of tariffs on inflation expectations and how the Federal Reserve might respond, the state of the US Treasury market, and the opportunities in the fixed income market amidst this unprecedented volatility.(This episode was recorded on 17 April 2025)

US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.00:31 Introduction01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?03:24 What is the expected timeline now?05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump’s plan is?06:41 The US Federal Reserve’s dilemma08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen16:23 Historic moves in bond markets18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season30:29 Oil prices under pressure31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year33:31 OutroWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Recent spikes in Treasury yields, public criticism from Republican mega-donors on the tariff policy, and calls by Wall Street CEOs to the White House and the Treasury Secretary, seem to have caught the White House’s attention. Reciprocal tariffs on all countries (excluding China), and tariffs on many electronics goods have been paused. Investors are taking some comfort in the White House’s attentiveness to the Treasury market. But until the tariff issues are resolved, significant uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market.

As global markets reel from the fallout of the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, gold is once again thrust into the spotlight. Despite a recent pullback amidst the market turmoil, the yellow metal has risen by around 20% overall in the past six months and continues to chart new highs.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, examine the rising demand of gold as a safe haven asset, continued central bank buying flows, and the factors behind the recent volatility.

In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.   Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer. 

Like in the Star Wars movie “The Phantom Menace”, the taxation of trade routes is leading to turmoil, including market turmoil. Bond and oil prices suggest the economy is about to abruptly slow down, following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements. The hope is the rest of the world will quickly come and negotiate with Trump, and some are. But the largest bilateral trade relationship is between China and the United States. China has called his bluff, raising its tariff on US imports to 52%.Comparisons of indicators such as volatility ratios, deviations from averages and investor sentiment between today and previous flash crashes, all indicate high chances of the S&P 500 index being higher a year from now. But fundamentally, there’s no way to know what things will look like a year from now. We expect US valuations to compress and valuations to expand, as foreign savings fund domestic growth in Europe and China.

New tariffs will surely lead to a rise in inflation, as will the oil price, if Iran ignores Trump’s ultimatum to a new nuclear deal. With inflation expected to stay high, we look for only one rate cut this year, and think 2026 will be an easier year to cut rates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is technically weak, having broken its March low. It is heavily weighted toward the champions of Artificial Intelligence that have driven the bull market of the past five years. The consensus forecast for 2025 S&P 500 index EPS growth that was over 13% in February, is below 10% today. But since World War 2, April has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P, and in the years when the S&P fell by 3% or more in March, April had an average gain of 6%.

The second inauguration of Donald Trump has resulted in something of an upheaval for equity markets. The imposition of tariffs, or the threat of them, has led to uncertainty and heightened volatility, prompting a rotation out of US megacap stocks and into European and other global equity markets. It’s not an easy time to pick stocks.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about his team’s approach to stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that may offer the best opportunities in the months ahead.00:31 – Introduction and background02:37 – The impact of tariffs03:25 – Our preferred Regions/Sectors05:20 – Our stock-picking process06:46 – Financials and Industrials09:36 – Information Technology10:32 – Stand-out subsectors14:00 – Balancing equity portfolios in the current environment15:43 - Conclusion16:20 – Legal disclaimerWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

This year, the S&P 500 index has been in what technical analysts call a “broadening formation” of wider swings, that signals increasing volatility and typically precedes large price moves. While the second Trump administration is less chaotic​​ than the first, it is overwhelming any opposition with a blitz of activity. The thinking is there is no time like the present, and it’s better to do the hard things first to get any economic slowdown they might cause out of the way, before mid-term elections are held in November next year. Meanwhile, the uncertainties Trump has created have ignited animal spirits in long-dormant and lazy economies, and by extension their stock markets.