
Increments
Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon.
Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.
Latest episodes

Apr 17, 2025 • 1h 10min
#84 - A Primer on Not Born Yesterday by Hugo Mercier
Explore the intriguing idea that humans might not be as gullible as we think, with insights from Hugo Mercier's work. Listen in as the hosts dissect the evolution of communication and how it impacts social interactions. They question when people change their minds and delve into the balance between motivated reasoning and social conformity. Get ready for playful debates about stubbornness and belief formation, all peppered with fascinating animal examples that highlight the nuances of reliable communication.

Mar 27, 2025 • 1h 21min
#83 - The Anxious Generation Round II: Alternative Explanations
Round two on the anxious generation. Well, honestly, round three. But we had a false start with round two, which is why this episode is a little late in coming. If you want to hear the gory, data-heavy details of our second attempt, you can access the episode by becoming a patron (was there ever a better sell?).
We discuss
Whether the rise in self-harm rates was due to reporting changes
Whether education and common core could be affecting mental health
Whether cultural pessimism is on the rise
Cyberbullying
Martin Gurri's thesis on the digital revolution
How Vaden will handle social media with his kids
References
David Wallace Wells opinion piece
Our patreon episode on David Wallace Wells' thesis
Peter Gray on common core
Revolt of the Public
Errata
Ben said The Revolt of the Public was written in 2014. It was written in 2018.
Vaden said he would list all four of Haidt's points about why girls are uniquely vulnerable to negative effects of social media, and only got halfway in before forgetting he said that. The four reasons Haidt gives are:
Girls are more affected by visual social comparison and perfectionism
Girls' aggression is more relational
Girls more easily share emotions and disorders
Girls are more subject to predation and harassment
Quotes
Here is a story. In 2007, Apple released the iPhone, initiating the smartphone revolution that would quickly transform the world. In 2010, it added a front-facing camera, helping shift the social-media landscape toward images, especially selfies. Partly as a result, in the five years that followed, the nature of childhood and especially adolescence was fundamentally changed — a “great rewiring,” in the words of the social psychologist Jonathan Haidt — such that between 2010 and 2015 mental health and well-being plummeted and suffering and despair exploded, particularly among teenage girls.
For young women, rates of hospitalization for nonfatal self-harm in the United States, which had bottomed out in 2009, started to rise again, according to data reported to the C.D.C., taking a leap beginning in 2012 and another beginning in 2016, and producing, over about a decade, an alarming 48 percent increase in such emergency room visits among American girls ages 15 to 19 and a shocking 188 percent increase among girls ages 10 to14.
Here is another story. In 2011, as part of the rollout of the Affordable Care Act, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a new set of guidelines that recommended that teenage girls should be screened annually for depression by their primary care physicians and that same year required that insurance providers cover such screenings in full. In 2015, H.H.S. finally mandated a coding change, proposed by the World Health Organization almost two decades before, that required hospitals to record whether an injury was self-inflicted or accidental — and which seemingly overnight nearly doubled rates for self-harm across all demographic groups. Soon thereafter, the coding of suicidal ideation was also updated.
David Wallace Wells, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/smartphones-social-media-mental-health-teens.html
Studies confirm that as adolescents moved their social lives online, the nature of bullying began to change. One systematic review of studies from 1998 to 2017 found a decrease in face-to-face bullying among boys but an increase among girls, especially among younger adolescent girls.[47] ... According to one major U.S. survey, these high rates of cyberbullying have persisted (though have not increased) between 2011 and 2019. Throughout the period, approximately one in 10 high school boys and one in five high school girls experienced cyberbullying each year.[49] In other words, the move online made bullying and harassment a larger part of daily life for girls.
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- Haidt, The Anxious Generation p. 170
Socials
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Mar 6, 2025 • 1h 53min
#82 - Are Screens Really That Bad? Critiquing Jon Haidt's "The Anxious Generation"
The discussion tackles the controversial thesis that social media is driving a mental health crisis in adolescents. The hosts scrutinize the reliability of Jon Haidt's research, questioning its methods and data consistency. They explore the complexities of youth mental health, emphasizing the need to differentiate correlation from causation. The conversation dives into the challenges of academics pivoting to independent platforms for sharing findings. Humor and personal anecdotes color their critical analysis of societal perceptions surrounding screens and mental well-being.

Feb 14, 2025 • 1h 39min
#81 - What Does Critical Rationalism Get Wrong? (w/ Kasra)
Dive into a thought-provoking critique of critical rationalism as Kasra questions the cultural impact of Popper and Deutsch. The conversation navigates the complexities of their philosophies, from the nuances of observation being theory-laden to the hierarchy of reliability in different disciplines. Expect insights into the challenges and limitations faced by these influential thinkers, alongside a vibrant discussion on the implications of truth and confidence in scientific inquiry. Can their ideas truly rise above the footnotes of philosophy?

Jan 28, 2025 • 1h 7min
#80 (C&R Series, Chap. 7) - Dare to Know: Immanuel Kant and the Enlightenment
Immanuel Kant's popularity at his death sparks intrigue about the value of his philosophy. The discussion contrasts deontology with consequentialism and virtue ethics, highlighting Kant's Categorical Imperative. His critiques of cosmology unveil the ideas of a finite yet infinite universe. The podcast also explores Kant's revolutionary transcendental idealism and the role he played in the Enlightenment. Popper's admiration for Kant sheds light on their shared commitment to reason and individual autonomy, making for a fascinating exploration of moral philosophy.

Dec 28, 2024 • 25min
#79 (Bonus) - The Mitford Sisters
Delve into the scandalous world of the Mitford Sisters, focusing on Unity Mitford's extraordinary life and her controversial ties to Hitler. Discover their complex family dynamics and contrasting political beliefs, revealing their influence on 20th-century celebrity culture. Explore Unity's background from Swastika, Ontario, and her troubling obsession with fascism. The discussion contrasts her privileged existence with the dark realities of Nazi Germany, culminating in a tragic narrative of loyalty and downfall.

Dec 10, 2024 • 1h 1min
#78 - What could Karl Popper have learned from Vladimir Nabokov? (w/ Brian Boyd)
In this engaging discussion, Brian Boyd, a leading expert on Karl Popper and Vladimir Nabokov, shares his insights into these two intellectual giants. He reveals how he discovered Nabokov and examines whether Nabokov had a philosophy. The conversation dives into Nabokov's dual life as a writer and scientist, questioning if he was merely a puzzle creator. Boyd also challenges the significance of an author’s intentions in literary interpretation, highlighting the fascinating interplay between their ideas and how they shaped each other.

Nov 19, 2024 • 2h 21min
#77 (Bonus) - AI Doom Debate (w/ Liron Shapira)
Liron Shapira, host of the Doom Debates podcast, dives deep into the controversial realm of AI risks and creativity. He and the panel discuss the real implications of superintelligent AI and the ethical conundrums it presents. They tackle whether AI can be genuinely creative, exploring its limitations in humor and originality. The conversation also touches on the psychological effects of doomerism and the stark differences between human intelligence and AI mechanisms. Prepare for a thought-provoking and entertaining exploration!

Nov 8, 2024 • 2h 51min
#76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira)
Liron Shapira, host of Doom Debates and an expert in AI risks, welcomes Vaden Masrani and Ben Chugg for a vibrant discussion on epistemology. They dive into the contrasting views of Popperian and Bayesian reasoning while exploring the existential threats posed by AI. The trio debates whether it's reasonable to quantify beliefs and the challenges of predicting catastrophic events. Additionally, they touch on the complexities of prediction markets and the philosophical implications of Bayesianism in understanding human cognition and decision-making.

7 snips
Oct 23, 2024 • 1h 41min
#75 - The Problem of Induction, Relitigated (w/ Tamler Sommers)
Tamler Sommers, a Professor of philosophy at the University of Houston and co-host of the Very Bad Wizards podcast, dives deep into the philosophical conundrum of induction. He challenges the idea of whether regularities exist in nature and debates Popper's controversial solution to this age-old problem. Expect lively discussions on the difference between certainty and justification, the reliability of predictions, and the intriguing intersection of science with meditation. With humor and insight, the conversation navigates the complexities of scientific theories and our understanding of reality.
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