Increments

Scott Aaronson, the Schlumberger Centennial Chair of Computer Science at UT Austin and director of its Quantum Information Center, dives into the riveting debate on AI's role in our lives. He passionately advocates for educational reform, emphasizing individualized learning. The discussion navigates the concept of 'justa-ism,' questioning whether AI is merely a tool or something more. Scott also touches on limitations of current AI training methods, the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, and the unpredictability of AI advancements—inviting us to consider the broader implications for humanity.

Dive into Popper's philosophy of science as the hosts explore what makes a scientific theory great. They discuss whether we can judge theories before testing, the debate on responsibility for a lost watch, and the intricacies of male skincare routines. The conversation touches on concepts like empirical versus logical content, the significance of growth in science, and whether aiming for high probability aligns with scientific progress. Expect a fiery clash over Bayesianism and Popper's critiques, all while keeping it lighthearted!

We're joined by Jonathan Rauch to discuss what it means to be a radical incrementalist, how to foment revolution on geological timescales, and whether Christianity can be a force for good in politics. Can Jon convince angry-Hitchens-atheist Vaden that Christianity has some benefits? Will both Vaden and Ben be at Sunday prayer? Follow Jonathan on his website, at Brookings, at The Atlantic or on Bluesky. We discuss The constitution of knowledge and whether it's holding Norms vs laws, and whether we should introduce more laws to codify norms Popper's paradox of tolerance How should liberals respond to illiberalism? Which tactics, if any, should democrats adopt from MAGA to fight MAGA? Sharp Christianity and Christian nationalism Rauch's plea to Christians References The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth Cross Purposes: Christianity's Broken Bargain with Democracy Errata Jonathan Rauch is the author of nine books, not eight! Socials Follow us on Twitter at @JonRauch, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here. Click dem like buttons on youtube Anyone in Canada have a basement suite Jonathan could rent for a while? Send your address over to incrementspodcast@gmail.comSpecial Guest: Jonathan Rauch.Support Increments

Ben Recht, a professor at UC Berkeley, explores the nuances of statistics and AI. He defends Bayesian approaches while humorously questioning the utility of statistics in daily life. The discussion dives into AI doom, the origins of the term 'robot,' and the contributions of Paul Meehl to science. Recht highlights the philosophical pitfalls of probabilistic reasoning in AI and debates the relevance of traditional statistical methods. Listen in for a thoughtful critique on the intersection of statistics, science, and societal perceptions of technology.

Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW? Listener Note: We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify: - https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod - https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB We discuss The incentives of superforecasters Arguments by authority Whether superintelligence is right around the corner The difference between model size and data Are we running out of high quality data? Does training on synthetic data work? The assumptions behind the AGI claims The pitfalls of reasoning from trends References Michael I Jordan Neil Lawrence [Important technical paper from Jordan pushing back on Doomerism](A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AI) Jordan article talking about dangers of using AlphaFold data Nature paper showing you can't use synthetic data to train bigger models Paper estimating of when training data will run out (Coincidentally enough, sometime between 2027-2028) Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here. Click dem like buttons on youtube But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com Episode header image from here. Support Increments

Dive into the philosophical showdown between Berkeley and Newton as they battle over the nature of gravity. Explore the educational implications of AI tools like ChatGPT in writing, and ponder whether we can learn from historical figures like Stalin in addressing plagiarism. Uncover the distinctions between instrumentalism and essentialism, and laugh as Berkeley grapples with Newton's concepts of force. Finally, witness the ongoing debate about observability in science and discover the fascinating legacy of these influential thinkers.

This week we take a break from our regularly scheduled programming to listen to Ben, Rich, and Cam loutishly pontificate on one of the oldest poems in history. That's right, three fiction noobs take on Homer. Ladies, have you ever wondered what your fella is doing when you're out for the evening? Look no further. The podcast you're listening to is Do You Even Lit? which you can find on any podcast platform and on youtube. The hosts are Richard Meadows, Cam Peters, and some third guy. Back to increments in a couple weeks! In the meantime: find us on twitter at @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, and @Incrementspod come join our discord channel! Send us a message or an email to get a supersecret link hit those like buttons on youtube to show off your virtuosity Should we switch out Vaden for Rich and Cam? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.Special Guest: Richard Meadows.Support Increments

Join research director Hugo Mercier as he dives into the fascinating world of belief and conformity. He critiques the dual process theory of cognition, identifying how our biases often lead us astray. Mercier explores the mechanics of propaganda, particularly how social media has reshaped its influence. He also examines why advertising often fails despite hefty budgets and shares insights on social signaling in belief systems. With discussions on flat earthers and the importance of dialogue, this conversation unpacks the nuances of how we trust and believe.

Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian dive into the intricacies of confidence and evidence. Hall, a speaker in street epistemology, presents a fallibilist view on knowledge while Boghossian discusses rational decision-making and trust. They explore how confidence is interwoven with personal beliefs and scientific inquiry, emphasizing that confidence doesn't equal truth. The conversation also touches on moral reasoning, the challenges of defining knowledge, and the implicit knowledge conveyed through emotions. Expect thought-provoking insights and lively discourse!

Peter Boghossian, a philosopher renowned for his work in street epistemology, joins Brett Hall, a critical rationalist thinker, to dissect the interplay between confidence and evidence. They explore how historical moments in science, like Eddington's solar eclipse experiment, reveal the complexities of validating theories. The duo emphasizes the subjective nature of confidence, weighing Bayesianism against critical rationalism, and highlights the dangers of overconfidence in decision-making. Their conversation is a refreshing deep dive into epistemology and its real-world implications.