Increments #85 (Reaction) - On Confidence and Evidence: Reacting to Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian (Part 1)
May 9, 2025
Peter Boghossian, a philosopher renowned for his work in street epistemology, joins Brett Hall, a critical rationalist thinker, to dissect the interplay between confidence and evidence. They explore how historical moments in science, like Eddington's solar eclipse experiment, reveal the complexities of validating theories. The duo emphasizes the subjective nature of confidence, weighing Bayesianism against critical rationalism, and highlights the dangers of overconfidence in decision-making. Their conversation is a refreshing deep dive into epistemology and its real-world implications.
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Confidence Outside Formal Science
- Confidence doesn't formally belong in science but exists as a subjective feeling in human experience.
- Evidence serves primarily to falsify theories, not to accumulate confirmation.
Eddington's Experiment Realities
- Eddington's 1919 experiment involved multiple observations, not a single test, and took decades for general relativity to gain acceptance.
- Science includes a sociological aspect where convincing others is as crucial as logical proof.
Science’s Dual Nature
- Science has a logical core focused on falsification and an unavoidable sociological layer involving human persuasion.
- Separating these levels clarifies differing perspectives on confidence and evidence in science.