Alpha Exchange

Cameron Dawson, an undergrad econ major, discusses lessons learned from the rapid changes in the energy sector. She reflects on the forward-looking nature of the market and the importance of taxes for low basis stock investors. The podcast also covers topics such as stock/bond correlation and portfolio construction in a low interest rate environment.

David Rogal, Managing Director at BlackRock, discusses risk management during crisis periods and his framework for thinking about inflation. He emphasizes the importance of simplifying exposures and understanding correlations. Rogal also analyzes the challenges in the treasury market and fiscal policy's impact on clearing prices. He delves into the total return of a portfolio with a fixed income focus, covering equity volatility, value across the curve, and international rates.

Karishma Kaul, Head of Systematic Fixed Income Strategies at Fidelity, discusses the role of common factors in fixed income factor investing, including value, momentum, and quality. She explores the challenges of implementation and potential return dampening due to crowding. Karishma shares her background in engineering and experiences in finance. The podcast also covers indexed-based distortions in fixed income and initiatives for women in finance.

Reflecting on the nearly unmanageable unwind of Long Term Capital 25 years ago, the podcast explores the rise and fall of LTCM, the challenges faced by the Fed chairman and Treasury Secretary in 1998, and the trading strategy and risks of LTCM. It also delves into zero DTE options, selling Vega for long-term equity volatility, and the overconfidence of LTCM's team in their mathematical models.

Kristy Akullian, Senior Investment Strategist at BlackRock, discusses the development of ETF technology, caution regarding extended positioning and futures contracts, and the path for inflation. She also shares her views on initiatives to expand opportunities for females in finance.

With more than two decades of experience trading and managing risk in sell-side and buy-side roles, Mimi Duff has learned a thing or two about high finance. In the early 1990’s she cut her teeth writing research for agency and treasury securities at Goldman Sachs. She’d later move to trading, focused on making markets in the long end utilizing a framework for the relative value of securities across the curve.We review some of the prominent risk events she’s traded through including September 11th and the reverberations of volatility in market prices that resulted. Mimi makes the point that the emotional response to an event so tragic tests a trader’s capacity to manage risk. We also explore the GFC and the front row seat that Mimi had to this event. Running the swaps trading desk at Barclays, she was responsible for the interest rate exposure that came about through the Lehman acquisition, calculating first and second order risks and then implementing a hedging program in the market.Our conversation moves to her current role at GenTrust, a sophisticated wealth advisor catering to high net worth individuals, where she runs the NY Office. For Mimi, wealth management all starts with having a plan and a suitable client benchmark. In this context, we discuss the work that GenTrust does in delivering portfolio construction, diversification and tax planning services to ultra high net individuals and investment entities. In evaluating opportunities for clients, the team is willing to consider alternative, sometimes off-the-run risk exposures. But illiquidity risk is taken on only in instances where the expected return profile and diversification outcome is especially favorable. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mimi Duff.

Market prices are the outcome of a myriad of factors. Geopolitical developments, the economy, the regulatory landscape and the actions of Central Banks all matter. So, too, do market participants and the set of products they utilize to assume or reduce risk exposures. For Rocky Fishman, the founder of newly formed derivatives strategy firm Asym 500, studying complex products and the mechanical flows they often generate is critical.Our discussion is a review of market risk episodes and how risk management schemes that use volatility as a direct input can accelerate price moves in the broad equity market to both the upside and downside. In this context, we discuss the Feb'18 XIV event as well as the rapid repricing of risk in August of 2015 when China re-pegged its currency versus the dollar. Both events speak to the importance of the positioning that can become lopsided when realized volatility has been especially low.We also talk about diversification and correlation. Here, Rocky makes the point that investors must respect the degree to which an impaired market can cause economically similar securities to become severely dislocated. Lastly, we talk about zero day to expiration options. Not seeing the case for Volmaggedon 2.0 at this point, his work at Asym500 will nevertheless be focused on carefully studying short-dated option flows. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rocky Fishman.

As Global Co-head of Portfolio Solutions at AQR Capital Management, Dan Villalon is primarily engaged in helping the firm’s clients address constantly evolving challenges around risk management. Central to these, of course, is the search for efficient sources of diversification. In this context, our discussion explores research his team has done in two primary areas.First, we talk about defending against drawdowns that are both fast and slow and back-tests that compare options-based hedging with strategies like trend following that do not require explicit premium payments. For rapid market sell-offs, like those that occurred during the GFC and the Covid crash, explicit, premium based insurance works well. This approach can suffer, however, as the market bottoms and recovers even as option prices remain high. Trend following strategies, while not as effective for sudden market plunges, tend to be more effective in offsetting losses that occur during slower drawdowns, as occurred in 2022.Dan makes the point that a robotic strategy that buys assets that have trended higher and sells those that have trended lower tends to work across asset classes and around the world, at odds with market efficiency. One possible explanation put forth is “under-reaction”. Here, investors respond to good news, but not initially by enough, leaving further gains on the table.Lastly, we talk about AQR’s recent work on international diversification. Noting that US stocks have been the place to be for 3 decades, the firm sees an important place for international equities going forward given the view that the tailwind of rising relative valuations in the US may be behind. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dan Villalon.

With an early passion for video games and teaching himself programming languages Q-Basic and C, Corey Hoffstein did not expect to ultimately wind up in money management. But exposure to various roles in the industry through an internship started him down the path, helping him see how to marry his love of computer science with markets.Now the CIO of Newfound Research, a firm he co-founded more than a decade ago, Corey is focused on delivering to investors the one free lunch they are entitled to: diversification. We spend most of the discussion here, with an emphasis on “return stacking”, a strategy that Newfound embraces to expand access to diversifying assets. In this light, a topic we spend some time on is trend following, a strategy that has proven to deliver attractive low correlation to stock and bond returns.Corey describes the manner in which the implementation of trend following is similar to the delta hedging of a long volatility position, allowing the strategy to provide some portfolio protection in risk-off events.And with risk-off in mind, we talk as well about “liquidity cascades”, research that Corey and his team have done to highlight the manner in which trades that live and breathe within the market’s ecosystem of risk can create spill-over effects that amplify asset price movements. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Corey Hoffstein.

Your host is back again, providing some thoughts and commentary on the recent period of low volatility in the equity market. With SVB and the debt ceiling uncertainty mostly in the rear-view, markets embraced the calm, experiencing just a single 2% up move and a single 2% down move in the first half of 2023. I break down the causes and consequences of lower volatility. Along the way, you’ll hear some talk on the gamma/theta trade-off, stock bond correlation, the price of upside calls in the S&P 500 and what appears to be an attractive level of implied volatility for gold. Hope you enjoy!