Launched in 1993, the S&P Depository Receipt, or Spider, will soon turn 30. Over these 3 decades, the ETF product landscape has grown tremendously both in assets under management and in the increasing breadth of risk profiles that can be accessed. Credit-focused ETFs have seen particularly robust growth, with products like the HYG reaching an asset size in the tens of billions. And with this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Joanna Gallegos, co-founder of ETF creator BondBloxx, to the Alpha Exchange.Spending her 20 year career in the design and production of exchange traded funds, Joanna shares her perspective on the inputs that have been critical for providers to deliver products at such scale. Here, she cites the operational efficiencies developed by passive index money managers in the years preceding ETFs. Our conversation turns to fixed income ETFs and the founding idea of BondBloxx, a suite of products designed to provide more targeted credit exposure based on both industry and rating. Launching with 7 sectors that comprise the BofA high yield index, BondBloxx products may be to the HYG what ETFs like the XLF and XLK are to the SPY.We finish our discussion with some of Joanna’s views on the efforts to motivate career development for females in finance. She’s benefitted a great deal from female mentorship in her career and now, in a very senior position, draws from these positive lessons in advocating for professional in the early parts of their career.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Joanna Gallegos. BondBloxx Investment Management Corporation (“BondBloxx”) is a registered investment adviser. The content of this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. The views expressed in this podcast are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Information about the qualifications and business practices of BondBloxx is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov._  

Fearing deflation and eager to sponsor growth post the GFC, Central Banks around the world became a near permanent fixture in markets, gathering vast stockpiles of risk free assets. Few were more impactful in determining clearing prices than was the ECB. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, to the podcast.Our conversation is one part retrospective, looking back on the period between 2013 and 2019 when interest rates in the Eurozone descended to shocking low and negative levels. Alf shares his views on the trade-offs in seeking favorable risk-adjusted carry in such a low rate regime, making the point that it's important to identify and understand the capital that serves to sponsor the trade along with you. We touch on some of the unique political considerations for risk assets in Europe and here, Alf looks back on a shock to Italian markets that materialized in May of 2018 as fears advanced that a Euro-skeptic government coalition could seek to abandon the Euro.We also survey the uncertainties today, focusing on the risks that may result from nominal yields in Italy approaching 4%. From Alf's perspective, while there is plenty of negative sentiment, one can argue that the price of risk does not fully reflect the degree of economic and financial vulnerability resulting from the combination of inflation and the risks of energy prices.Lastly, we touch on Alf's efforts at the Macro Compass, the newsletter he launched to share his insights on the big picture of risk and to play a role in financial education. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alfonso Peccatiello

Getting her start in 2001 as the TIPS products was just a few years old, Gargi Chaudhuri has been a market participant in inflation-linked securities for more than 2 decades, a time over which she’s developed expertise in a product that has become front and center to the unique risk dynamics of 2022. Our conversation first explores the evolution of the TIPS market, from its early days where even a small notional trade could impact pricing to today when large institutions are assuming and reducing inflation exposures and, of course, the Fed is non-trivial presence in the market. In this context, we discuss the relative prices of TIPS and nominal bond prices and the real yields and break-even levels derived from them.Here, Gargi points to potential areas of distortion, citing the rapid rise in 10 year real yields from -100bps at the start of 2022 to as high as 80bps in early June. While disruptive, this repricing does pave the way for finding value in the asset class. We next discuss Gargi’s work at Head of Investment Strategy within IShares at BlackRock. With the mantra that “staying invested is the North Star”, she walks through the exposure shifts that can reduce volatility and drawdowns during bear market periods. Here, she discusses using “min vol” as well as other defensive sectors like healthcare that have good pricing power amidst the regime of elevated inflation.We finish by exploring the topic of decision-making under uncertainty and hearing what Gargi is more and less confident about. While feeling good about the various frameworks her team has built to understand inflation and flows, she is less sure about the changing Central Bank reaction function to incoming data.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Gargi Chaudhuri.

Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller has said that the “best economist he knows is the guts of the stock market.” For Mr. Blonde, an industry professional who has served in both sell-side and buy-side roles focused on risk management and equity strategy, few statements ring truer. Our discussion explores the framework he has developed through various market cycles, one that evaluates a collection of metrics both across and within markets, ultimately aiming to gain an edge in the probability of future outcomes. In this context, we discuss his role on the buy-side at a large long/short fund where he was charged with helping the chief risk-taker to better understand the macro climate and how it might serve as either a headwind or tailwind for fundamental security selection. We review a few key events when the macro and micro diverged. Here, Mr. Blonde cites the very low vol period in equity markets during the first 7 months of 2015 that masked important signals at odds with this stability, specifically the ongoing sell-off in crude and a widening of credit spreads. In August of ‘15, this stability was quickly undone as the VIX ramped to 45 when China quasi floated its currency.We finish our discussion with his assessment of present day risk and reward and the interplay between the Fed, rates, inflation and the relative performance of style factors. In his view, disinflationary forces could re-emerge on the other side and give rise to a new cycle in which benign Fed policy and low rates again support the growth stocks that worked well during the prior cycle. Before that, however, investors will need to contend with the potential that financial conditions need to tighten a good deal further. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mr. Blonde.

As Chief Market Strategist at Jones Trading, Mike O’Rourke spends his time studying price, flows and policy and the complex interaction among these factors. Getting his start in the mid 90’s as the tech bubble was gaining momentum and both the Asian Currency crisis and LTCM event would occur, he’s gained an appreciation for how impactful flows and crowdedness can be on asset prices in both directions. The study of markets is complicated by agents of price agnostic demand. Here Mike points to the era of activism and transparency among Central Banks in the post GFC era of disinflation. He makes the point that this period of inflation shortfall was likely driven by a 20 year cycle of globalization that has largely ended. In the aftermath is persistently high inflation and far less forward guidance from major Central Banks.Presently, Mike sees the potential for more downside in markets, especially as financial conditions, while off their lows, could need to tighten considerably more in order for the Fed to push inflation lower. In terms of the tail risks on his radar, Mike worries about a multi-year unwind of excess resulting from the stimulus that went into the market in the period after the Pandemic. He also fears a potential showdown between Central Banks and market prices, especially the ECB and the BoJ.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mike O’Rourke.

Amidst the ongoing tumult in the digital asset space, it was a pleasure to welcome Bill Birmingham, the Chief Investment Officer of the Osprey Funds, to the podcast. Originally trained as a lawyer and then transitioning to a role in portfolio management in the traditional hedge fund space, Bill shares his views on many aspects of the crypto landscape, at once excited by the potential in blockchain innovation but also on guard for a further leg down in prices.Our conversation explores his early interest in digital assets a decade ago, fascinated by the programmable features of smart contracts and the similarities to what he'd observed in his study of law. We also spend time reflecting on the recent systemic risk in the meltdown of LUNA and the contagion impact of the 3AC default. There are lessons to be learned here and work to be done to create a more robust system. Specifically, the recursive leverage that is enabled through Bitcoin as an electronic bearer asset needs to be managed if the overall system is not to become too leveraged. Looking forward, Bill and his team at Osprey see promising innovations in the NFT space and opportunities to deliver exposures to end users on a cost-efficient basis. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Bill Birmingham.

Andy Constan, former Salomon Brothers member, discusses the impact of flows on market prices and shares episodes of disruptions in supply and demand. Topics include the April 2020 negative price in front-month crude caused by ETF flows and the 2010 blow-up in the long-dated SPX variance swap market. He also explores the market's ability to adjust to higher rates and the factors influencing Fed policy. Join the conversation with Andy Constan on this episode of Alpha Exchange.

Trading convertible bonds on emerging market underlyings in the pre-GFC period, Vishnu Kurella quickly learned that even indices can experience enormous daily moves. A macro portfolio manager who evaluates opportunities through the lens of optionality, he shares the lessons learned from trading through the frequent episodes of crisis that characterize modern markets. In this context, Vishnu emphasizes liquidity and the implications for being able to unwind trades without excessive friction. In his rendering, open-mindedness is also a critical part of the risk management process.Here, it becomes important to continuously look for shifts in the macro risk regime and to be prepared to re-underwrite existing exposures as appropriate. From here, we jump to considerations in trade implementation and seeking to overlay an expected distribution of outcomes relative to that which is implied by option prices. Lastly, we talk as well about the current risk climate, one in which equity markets have been punished by inflation and Fed policy uncertainty. Vishnu shares his views on the pressure points. Noting the incredibly favorable environment for corporates in 2021 in which both base rates and credit spreads were extremely low, he sees something considerably more fragile now. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Vishnu Kurella.

Over a 15 year career at Deutsche Bank, Devin Anderson watched the pendulum of risk swing. Developing solutions for clients during the ultra-low vol period before the GFC, through the crisis itself and then again during the relatively benign periods of its aftermath, Devin has observed the tendency for modern markets to lurch from quiet to chaos. In the process, he’s had a front row seat in how various hedging strategies have performed and why. We explore the poorly timed decision by Calpers to unwind its hedging program just before the Pandemic related market sell-off in 2020, a discussion through which we learn more about Devin’s co-founding of Convexitas, an overlay manager working with clients to efficiently hedge risk.In Devin’s view, the “why” of tail hedging is clear: to realize explosive gains in down markets that can be used to fund purchases of newly cheapened assets. The hedge vehicle should generate and deliver cash at the right time and because of this, structure and implementation become important parts of the product.  Next we explore the VIX, the ubiquitous but also poorly understood metric. Here, Devin differentiates between products like vanilla index options that have convexity with respect to spot prices and those, like VIX options, that are written on vol itself. Both serve important roles, but require different monetization game plans. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Devin Anderson.

With a curious mind and keen desire to learn how things work, Robin Wigglesworth has always found the complexity of financial markets fascinating. Now the editor of the well-regarded Alphaville markets blog, Robin has been with the Financial Times since 2008 and through this period he’s covered episodes of crisis in traditional markets, and more recently, within the cryptocurrency realm. Robin shares his perspectives on how vastly the terrain has shifted in the delivery of financial media, pointing to the emergence of Twitter as a source of important information. In Robin’s words, “journalism is best when it is quite heavily criticized”.The balance of our conversation is about Robin’s excellent book, “Trillions”, a deep dive into the history of index funds and the massive growth in passive investing. Through his work we learn of the key developments and the key people whose contributions led to the juggernaut that is passive indexation today. Laying out the early academic research that called into question the notion that active management consistently generated alpha, Robin walks through the initial, inauspicious attempts to create vehicles that simply bought the market. With a view that the massive growth in passive investing is a very positive development, Robin reflects on some of the risks. In addition to the proliferation of questionable ETFs, he cites concentration – among the money managers, among the index providers and even the proxy vote advisors – as considerations to keep an eye on.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Robin Wigglesworth.