For Jon Kalikow, more than two decades of experience in the derivatives and converts market provided important lessons on risk management and the reality that even well designed trades rarely go strictly according to plan. Our conversation explores lessons imparted by Mr. Market, both during the Dotcom bubble and the Global Financial Crisis. In the former, efforts to strip out the optionality embedded in convert positions were stymied by basis risk across markets. And in the period leading into the GFC, Jon grappled with the burden of option carrying costs, even as his firm was well positioned with long convexity on subprime and US financials.Today, Jon is President of Gamma Real Estate and AFC Gamma, a public REIT in the cannabis space. Through our discussion, we learn more about the risks and opportunities in real estate lending through Jon’s lens as a creditor. Noting that lending has a similar economic profile to equity put selling, he contrasts the two by drawing attention to the complex decision-tree required to “take delivery” in a real estate transaction, something Gamma ultimately did in 2017 after a borrower defaulted.Next, our conversation explores credit extension in the cannabis industry. We learn more about the unique regulatory issues in the space and how Jon and his team evaluate borrowers in seeking to construct a diversified portfolio of loans. We learn more about the differences in state regulations and how that impacts AFCG’s appetite for lending. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jon Kalikow.

With a background in math and an inclination to embrace complexity, Puneet Kohli has always found managing capital in the derivatives market both interesting and challenging. And at the Health Care of Ontario Pension Plan, Puneet is also finding meaning and purpose in his work. Sitting within the Fixed Income and Derivatives team at HOOPP, Puneet helps play a role in delivering the pension promise for hundreds of thousands of front-line workers within the 110 billion dollar defined benefit plan.In pursuing this, HOOPP employs a derivatives-centric risk management process that is quite sophisticated, more resembling a US hedge fund than a US pension fund. Through our conversation, we learn more about how Puneet thinks about capitalizing on risk dislocations, utilizing the edge in HOOPPs long-dated capital and strong balance sheet but also incorporating the lessons provided by markets that are subject to episodes of extreme volatility that result in a significant liquidity shortfalls. With this in mind, we talk about liquidity management and also about playing defense through the search for negatively correlated assets. Here Puneet discusses rate contingent puts on the S&P 500, a trade that embeds short equity, short bond and long volatility exposures, all while achieving a healthy discount to vanilla put structures.Lastly, we reflect on market vol episodes including the global financial crisis, the blowups experienced during March 2020 and also the Meme stock up-crash of early 2021. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Puneet Kohli.

Armed with the power of the terminal, and bringing together a gift for writing and a deeply curious mind, Cameron Crise is a macro strategist at Bloomberg, contributing pieces on the big picture topics investment professionals are wrestling with. The author of the Macro Man column, Cameron utilizes a framework developed over years on the buy-side in portfolio management roles in which managing interest rate and FX risk were among his primary responsibilities.Through our conversation, we gather Cameron’s views on some of the overarching areas of uncertainty, focusing on the US interest rate vol surface and what it tells us. In this context, Cameron emphasizes the degree of uncertainty – via elevated options prices – embedded in the shorter maturities of the curve, ultimately a result of how much work the Fed has ahead of it. We talk as well about pricing incongruities and here he notes that the equity market multiple has not contracted nearly to the degree elevated inflation would imply it should. Lastly, Cameron points to curious differentials in the Euribor versus Eurodollar curves. Here, he notes that even as forward prices suggest the US may shift from an aggressive tightening cycle to actually easing in 2024, the Euribor curve implies ongoing tightening during this period. According to Cameron, The ECB has never actually hiked rates as the Fed was actively cutting, as is priced in 2024. Something to think about.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Cameron Crise.

Over a 30-year career in markets, Vadim Zlotnikov has gained a strong appreciation for the value of time horizon in risk management and alpha generation. Noting that being sufficiently early in expressing a view on markets is not much different from being wrong, Vadim stresses the importance of implementation in achieving a successful outcome. Here we talk of trade construction that is not necessarily burdened by high carry costs. We also discuss the endogenous nature of many market risks, an area that Vadim has focused on considerably and has developed a view that crowding plays a role in market vulnerability.Now the President of Fidelity Institutional Asset Management, Vadim is highly focused on portfolio construction and the exposures that should comprise the strategic allocation of his firm’s clients. In this pursuit, he’s thinking about the mix of assets that, in combination, is diversifying and able to deliver attractive returns. In this context, we discuss the changing interaction between risky and risk-free assets and the need to include additional sources of diversification including strategies focused on commodities, long/short equities and potentially, digital assets.Lastly, Vadim shares some of his thinking on the importance of diversification through strategies that have unique time horizons. Here, he makes the point that the alpha generation found in value investing takes place over a much different time horizon than does the alpha that accrues from momentum-based strategies.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Vadim Zlotnikov.

Amidst a fraught backdrop for macro risk, uncertainty around inflation is a new and vexing challenge for investors. And with this in mind, it was my pleasure to host a conversation with Lindsay Politi, the Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Through our discussion, we learn about the framework she has developed over two decades in fixed income with an emphasis on trading inflation. In Lindsay’s rendering, inflation is not a single variable but needs to be understood through unique cycles and in specific geographies and economies. Fiscal and monetary factors matter in driving inflation, but so to do structural components of labor markets, like demographics, and the degree to which wage and price growth can become linked in how employees and employers think.Today’s environment is unique in the impact of Covid and how it has created supply chain risks that are not easy to reverse, leaving the potential that today’s elevated inflation levels will not soon recede. We next turn to the ecosystem of products that pay out specifically on realized inflation. Here, Lindsay comments that shorter-dated, income oriented products have done quite well as the realized level of CPI has far outstripped anything that was implied even a short time ago. Rounding out our excellent conversation, we explore the Fed and how it impacts market prices. Lindsay sees lots of manipulation in prices but still valuable information to be derived from metrics like the break-even inflation curve.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Lindsay Politi.

Armed with a PhD in economics and policy experience, Dave Bizer hit Wall Street, landing at Lehman Brothers in structured equity derivatives in the early 1990’s. A deep background in options pricing theory notwithstanding, he soon found that concepts like Ito’s Lemma were less important than helping clients solve practical problems like hedging equity risk in a tax efficient manner. Developing a keen understanding of the tax code as it pertained to derivatives, Dave was among the innovators in product development in this area. Leaving the US for London in the pre-GFC period, Dave was head of European and EMEA Fixed Income. Our conversation explores the investor appetite for European structured products and the manner in which risks can be recycled to hedge funds.Turning to Dave’s transition to the buy-side, we learn of the framework he utilizes at GCW, the wealth management firm he co-founded.  Dave shares his views on equilibrium option pricing, seeing the clearing price for insurance as generally reflecting a risk-averse investor’s desire to truncate the potential for unwanted outcomes. On the long side of the portfolio, Dave and team believe that there is tremendous price discovery already incorporated into liquid, on the run public equities and, as a result, finding real alpha is difficult. The search for superior risk-adjusted returns is better focused in understanding complex, difficult to value situations that may be found in smaller cap equities or in private markets.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dave Bizer.

For Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, an appreciation for financial market history matters. And in today’s fast moving environment, in which market prices are rapidly adjusting to expectations of Fed policy changes, Robert’s perspectives are especially relevant. Our discussion is a review of inflation and monetary policy cycles from many years prior and through this, Robert shares his insights on the drivers of inflation. Calling into question a very basic assumption, that nominal interest rates are highly connected to inflation risk premium, Robert points to the importance of demographics and the availability of capital in setting the risk-free rate. Thus, today’s longer dated Treasury yields, well below concurrent inflation, are in part due to the excess of capital looking for a home, hoping to lock in some return over a longer time frame.Through our conversation, we also learn of Robert’s views on Central Bank communication, contrasting the Greenspan era of “constructive ambiguity” with Powell’s focus on transparency. In this context, Robert sees some components of the emphasis on messaging as positive, and others, including “time dependent” forward guidance as recently abandoned by Australia as less effective. Lastly, we consider the implications of higher rates moves on the stability of the ecosystem of asset prices. Here, Robert cautions that the transition to a higher rate environment may lead to large shifts, micro flash crashes and a breakdown in liquidity with respect to the flow that wants to move.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Robert Tipp.

Matt Amberson is among those who have watched the steady and consequential evolution of the listed equity options market over the last 3 decades. Getting his start on the floor of the CBOE in the 90’s, he was in the trenches during the period of incredible single stock volatility that was tied to the original tech bubble. While markets were not nearly as efficient then as they are now, Matt sought to improve his edge in trading options, seeking enhanced methods for estimating a stock’s volatility and searching for instances where the market may have left value undiscovered.Using proprietary option valuation and hedging techniques, Matt backed traders who were tasked with implementing this systematic approach some 25 years ago. And while those days are past, the IP developed lives on in the form of the company founded by Matt, ORATS, Option Research and Technology Services. Throughout our conversation, we learn about the growth of the US-listed options market and how Matt and his partners have developed their data, analytics and option back-testing service. In the process, we consider risk events like GME and hear Matt’s perspective on risk-management protocol in light of the increasing frequency of up-shocks in stocks.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Matt Amberson.

The still-nascent world of trading derivatives on cryptocurrencies requires more than just expertise in the math of options and trade construction. Pricing relationships can be driven by flows, by changes in sentiment and by regulatory tape bombs. For Ari Pine, Co-Founder of Digital Gamma, adeptness in financial technology is critical as well. Disparate venues, unique margin relationships and economic nuances in products across different exchanges all require a heavy lift with respect to creating a robust risk management infrastructure.Working with his partners at Digital Gamma, Ari is mining the raft of data that is emerging from the 24/7 trading of the many new assets in the digital sphere. Our conversation is part retrospective on the history of risk events. Through our discussions of the Orange County and LTCM debacles in the 1990’s, Ari shares lessons imparted by episodes of market volatility and the pitfalls of being overly wed to pricing models.  We spend the balance of time discussing the financial properties of bitcoin – both in the portfolio context and with respect to how its movements help shape the implied volatility surface of options. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ari Pine.

For Kris Sidial, the Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, trading and risk management is a passion. A self-professed math nerd in college, Kris began dabbling in sports betting using a statistical approach. He soon found his way into option markets, where is now an active participant and also a humble student continuously gathering knowledge from his interaction with the markets. Through our discussion, we learn of how Kris thinks about flows, his analysis of positioning and the complex poker game that leaves him always evaluating the why of the actions of others in the market. In his view, the market has become more reflexive over time.Here he cites not only the volatility of Meme but also the substantial growth in products written on volatility itself and the huge growth in short-dated options trading. Kris observes changes in market microstructure over the past few years that leave the market leaning heavily one way or the other and creating very large bursts of volatility that come suddenly. It is this dynamic that he and partners at Ambrus Group are trying to capitalize on.  We also spend time exploring the beta relationship between the VIX and the SPX. Here, again, Kris points to the proliferation of volatility products as playing a role in the outsized moves in the VIX that have become more common over the recent period. Lastly, we talk about managing the reality that options bleed premium. In this context, Ambrus engages in medium frequency strategies that seek to cover some of the theta bill.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kris Sidial.