35 Years Later…Retrospective on the 1987 Stock Market Crash
Oct 19, 2022
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Analyzing the 1987 stock market crash, the podcast explores the role of mechanical trading strategies, portfolio insurance, and liquidity dynamics. Guests share their firsthand experiences and insights, while reflecting on the lasting impact of the crash on market behavior and the challenges of predicting future crashes.
The 1987 stock market crash demonstrated the potential for rapid and significant drops in the market due to the introduction of stock index futures and the impact of mechanical trading strategies like portfolio insurance.
The crash of 1987 highlighted the challenges posed by liquidity demands, the complex relationship between stock and bond prices, and the importance of understanding the behavior of options and risk premiums.
Deep dives
The 1987 Stock Market Crash: A Day of Seismic Decline
In 1987, the stock market crash led to a decline of 22.6% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 20.4% in the S&P 500. The crash was driven not only by fear but also by mechanical trading strategies, such as portfolio insurance, that amplified selling pressure. This crash demonstrated the potential for rapid and significant drops in the market due to the introduction of stock index futures and the enhanced correlation it brought. Portfolio insurance, in particular, exacerbated the move and failed to protect investors as expected. The crash highlighted the importance of understanding risks and the potential impact of policy responses by entities like the Federal Reserve.
Lessons Learned from the Crash: Liquidity Demand and Risky Asset Prices
The crash of 1987 revealed the challenges posed by liquidity demands and the interaction between risky and risk-free asset prices. Portfolio insurers needed to sell quickly, creating a sense of urgency, while potential buyers were slower to respond. The crash also highlighted the complex relationship between stock and bond prices, as well as the impact of inflation, interest rates, and policy responses on market dynamics. Volatility played a significant role, with the VIX estimated to have reached 150 during the crash. The crash serves as a reminder of the time variation of risk premiums and the importance of understanding the pricing and behavior of options.
The Paradox of Risk: Understanding Market Crashes and Timing Trades
Market crashes, like the one in 1987, remind us of the challenges of predicting and timing trades accurately. While it may seem obvious in hindsight, successfully navigating market crises requires not only getting the view right but also the timing and trade construction. The crash highlights the difficulty of calling bubble formations and crashes, as evidenced by the tech bubble and subsequent crises. Studying previous episodes of market disruption provides valuable context for understanding the present and enables investors to better navigate periods of crisis.
Welcome to a special episode of the Alpha Exchange, one where we look back on the historic event that was the 1987 stock market crash. We review the seismic crash in prices that occurred 35 years ago, on October 19th, 1987, when the DOW and S&P 500 fell by 22.6% and 20.4%, respectively. It was a day that the VIX, had it been a calculated index at that time, would have closed at 150, almost double the level reached during the GFC and Pandemic. It was the realization that selling could beget selling, not just because of the psychology of fear, but because of mechanical trading strategies that exist in markets. We review this truly important day in financial market history through the lens of podcast guests. Along the way, we’ll contemplate the lessons learned and the lasting impact of the crash.
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