Alpha Exchange

Corey Hoffstein, Co-Founder and CIO of Newfound Research, is revolutionizing investment strategies for high-net-worth clients. He discusses the challenges of diversifying beyond traditional stocks and bonds, introducing innovative concepts like return stacking through ETFs. Corey compares risk characteristics of corporate bonds with merger arbitrage, revealing lower correlations with equities. He also shares insights on trend-following strategies and their defensive qualities during market downturns, shedding light on persistent risk premiums for savvy investors.

Financial markets are buzzing with volatility, highlighted by recent spikes in the VIX and declines in TLT, signaling investor distress. Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve add a layer of political uncertainty while gold and Bitcoin shine as potential hedges. Navigating through this turbulence, the need for clear decision-making strategies becomes crucial. The looming threat of rising long-term Treasury yields poses a risk to global stability, making the U.S. Treasury auctions a vital focal point. This chaos may reshape perceptions of value in uncertain times.

For Matt King, evaluating market risk is often about pinpointing vulnerabilities within the financial system. Over the many years he's been advising institutional investors, he's gone where the action is - in the dotcom era it was corporate balance sheets, in the pre-GFC period it was asset-backed CP and in the last decade it's been sovereigns and QE. Now the founder of Satori Insights, Matt shared his current assessment of risk on this episode of the Alpha Exchange.  His materially bearish take is a function of what he views as US trade policy underpinned by both a misunderstanding of balance of payments math and a failure to appreciate the risks of chaotic implementation. On the latter, Matt worries that the US is earning itself a risk premium in the back end of its bond market, a troubling development especially set against the ever-growing pile of debt outstanding. Matt shows the spike in US real rates at a time when the VIX was also surging and the dollar falling as similar to the UK's "Liz Truss moment" in 2022, an event that forced the Bank of England to act quickly. Matt argues that while Democracy ought to be mean-reverting - where bad policy leads to bad outcomes and declining popularity, ultimately motivating a change of course, today's setup in the US is one in which bad policies impact growth and further poison our politics, reinforcing bad policy. Stepping back, he sees value in gold, noting that both gold and FX vol are still too low. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Matt King.

Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered Bank, dives into the swirling currents of the financial markets. He examines how recent U.S. tariffs have reshaped investor sentiment and economic forecasts. The conversation navigates the complex balance of payments and the factors pushing the dollar lower, including rising pessimism about the U.S. economy. Steven also discusses challenges in the bond market and the dollar's evolving role as a safe haven amidst geopolitical pressures. Tune in for valuable insights into these pressing economic themes!

Recent market turbulence has sparked discussions around the implications of high volatility. Historical events like the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 provide context for understanding today's VIX levels. Insights reveal that while volatility can be daunting, it may present unique trading opportunities. The conversation emphasizes the importance of recognizing market dynamics and avoiding pitfalls that could create urgent financial crises. Ultimately, navigating this high volatility could be essential for strategic investment planning.

Campbel Harvey, a renowned Professor of Finance at Duke University and Partner at Research Affiliates, shares his insights on gold as an investment. He discusses his research on gold's performance compared to inflation, highlighting its volatility. Harvey explains the influence of ETFs and central banks on gold prices and the importance of entry price for investment returns. His work underscores gold's resilience during market downturns, making a case for its role in modern investment portfolios.

The podcast dives into the volatile landscape of the S&P 500 during the Covid crash, revealing how only volatility endured the liquidation chaos. It challenges the perception of gold as a hedge, highlighting its defensive nature and appeal to Central Banks. The discussion emphasizes gold's unique position as a trending asset that can rise alongside increased volatility, making it an interesting choice amid market turbulence. Personal anecdotes and reflections on modern education add a unique twist to the financial insights, enhancing listener engagement.

Owen Lamont, Senior Vice President at Acadian Asset Management, brings his wealth of knowledge in behavioral finance and market anomalies to the table. He compares the low equity correlation of today’s markets with the 1990s tech bubble, exploring how large-cap growth stocks remain disconnected from the broader market. Owen raises concerns about excessive corporate spending in AI and its impact on market valuation, emphasizing the complexities of growth versus value stocks and the historical significance of equity issuance and short-selling.

Roxton McNeal, Lead Portfolio Manager of QIS at Simplify Asset Management, shares his extensive background in quantitative investment strategies. He discusses the evolving ETF landscape, highlighting innovative products that incorporate derivatives and target unique assets like crypto. The conversation delves into the concept of carry, its implications for market dynamics, and the importance of stress testing strategies. Roxton emphasizes adaptive portfolio management in the face of market fluctuations and the integration of cryptocurrencies into investment products.

The podcast dives into the overlap between geopolitics and market volatility, coining the term 'GeoVolitics.' It discusses how rising geopolitical risks influence pricing and lead to higher risk premiums. There's also a focus on gold as a key asset during times of uncertainty and its psychological appeal. Additionally, the conversation explores current trends in credit spreads and implied volatility, emphasizing how crucial these metrics are for effective investment strategies. Overall, it offers valuable insights for navigating turbulent market conditions.