

Alpha Exchange
Dean Curnutt
The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.
Episodes
Mentioned books

25 snips
Oct 28, 2025 • 51min
Alex Kazan, Partner and Geopolitical Co-Lead, Brunswick Group
In this engaging discussion, Alex Kazan, a partner at Brunswick Group, delves into the complex interplay of US politics and global economic stability. He reveals how structural issues, hyper-partisanship, and the fallout from crises like the GFC and pandemic have made the US a significant source of international risk. Alex emphasizes the growing weaponization of economic tools like tariffs, urging multinational firms to adapt their strategies. The conversation also touches on the implications of AI in workplaces and the delicate balance needed in US-China relations.

9 snips
Oct 28, 2025 • 24min
Is US Stock Market Wealth a Reflexive Risk?
In this engaging discussion, the concentration of the S&P 500’s wealth in a small number of tech giants raises concerns about systemic risk. The interplay between rising market capitalizations and corporate spending is explored, along with its impact on consumer wealth amidst a soft labor market. Gold's volatility signals broader market risks, while prediction markets are discussed as innovative tools for real-time probability assessment. The dynamics of option trading amplify asset movements, creating a unique financial landscape.

42 snips
Oct 22, 2025 • 50min
Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy Société Générale
Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Société Générale, dives into the fascinating world of commodities, highlighting their unique duality of physical and financial markets. He explains how real-world frictions like storage and transport shape volatility and risk, contrasting it with equities. Ben also discusses the implications of market shocks, such as the 2020 negative WTI incident, and illustrates his commodity risk absorption analogy using CDO structures. Furthermore, he tackles the complexities of financialization and the structural differences in volatility risk premiums.

47 snips
Oct 1, 2025 • 25min
Low Correlation is the Defining Risk in Markets
Dive into the intriguing world of market dynamics as record-low stock correlations in the S&P 500 raise alarms. Discover how mega-cap firms seem interconnected yet stay uncorrelated, and explore historical parallels to past market crises. The complexities of dispersion trades reveal vulnerabilities that could lead to significant losses during market shocks. Learn about the unusual stickiness of implied volatility and practical risk management strategies, urging investors to rethink assumptions in the context of potential AI-driven market shifts.

34 snips
Sep 19, 2025 • 57min
David Puritz, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Shaolin Capital Management
David Puritz, the Founder and CIO of Shaolin Capital Management, shares insights on convertible bonds and uncorrelated investment strategies. He emphasizes the importance of risk management, suggesting that early purchases should often be at unfavorable prices to capitalize later. David discusses the complexities of the convertible market, including risks associated with high implied volatility and the dynamics of pricing. He also highlights the importance of diversification and explores innovative investment opportunities in AI and cryptocurrency.

49 snips
Sep 15, 2025 • 32min
RoR: Reflections on Risk
Dive into the fascinating world of volatility, where low SPX realized volatility can trick investors into underestimating risk. Discover a 5-part framework assessing the worth of market insurance and learn about proxy hedges offering great value in current markets. The GOAT portfolio shines with its mix of gold, Bitcoin, and strategic options to mitigate risks. Lastly, unravel the complexities of options trading and the critical role of market signals, cautioning against over-relying on transient asset correlations. A thought-provoking discussion awaits!

18 snips
Sep 2, 2025 • 54min
Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics, Harvard and Former Chief Economist, IMF
Ken Rogoff, a Harvard Economics professor and former IMF Chief Economist, dives deep into the dynamics of the U.S. dollar's dominance. He highlights the unique advantages of this status, like lower borrowing costs and sanctions power, while cautioning about the associated vulnerabilities. Rogoff shares insights from historical currency crises and warns against complacency regarding fiscal policy. He emphasizes that the future of dollar dominance hinges on maintaining central bank independence and navigating political influences on economic stability.

25 snips
Aug 21, 2025 • 59min
Kris Kumar, Founder and CIO, Goose Hollow Capital
Kris Kumar, founder and CIO of Goose Hollow Capital, dives into the shifting economic landscape as AI takes the stage over traditional consumption models. He argues that skyrocketing AI investments signal a pivotal change requiring fresh investor perspectives. Kumar also draws intriguing parallels with past tech bubbles and discusses challenges faced by policymakers as AI reshapes labor markets. Lastly, he highlights promising opportunities in Latin America fueled by AI-driven commodity demand and attractive interest rates.

24 snips
Aug 19, 2025 • 28min
Rainy Day Insurance Amidst the Sunshine
As summer winds down, the podcast dives into the calm but deceptive waters of market volatility. It warns investors not to get complacent despite low realized volatility and discusses the mounting risks in the economy and political landscape. The conversation highlights the crucial relationship between Federal Reserve policies and market behavior. Using historical bailouts as cautionary tales, it underscores the importance of options as a valuable insurance strategy amidst growing uncertainties.

18 snips
Aug 13, 2025 • 49min
Ben Hunt, Co-Founder, CIO and President, Perscient
Ben Hunt, co-founder and CIO of Perscient, believes that the stories we tell shape our behavior more than we realize. With a unique outsider's perspective, he forewarned of flaws in mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 crisis. Hunt discusses how narratives illuminate risks that models miss and the role of AI in mapping market influences. He also reflects on inflation, tech stock correlations, and the potential for wage inflation, emphasizing the importance of now casting to inform investment strategies in real time.


