Financial markets are buzzing with volatility, highlighted by recent spikes in the VIX and declines in TLT, signaling investor distress. Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve add a layer of political uncertainty while gold and Bitcoin shine as potential hedges. Navigating through this turbulence, the need for clear decision-making strategies becomes crucial. The looming threat of rising long-term Treasury yields poses a risk to global stability, making the U.S. Treasury auctions a vital focal point. This chaos may reshape perceptions of value in uncertain times.
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insights INSIGHT
Volatility Clusters and Market Behavior
Volatility clusters and big moves dominate market behavior, especially in the S&P 500.
Disruptive events like "Liberation Day" cause markets to reprice under new uncertainty conditions rapidly.
insights INSIGHT
VIX and Swap Spread Risks
Markets peaked with a VIX near 50 during chaotic conditions unlikely to self-correct quickly.
Swap spreads’ inversion added fuel to the financial risk event, amplifying market stress.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Trading Volatility with VIX Put Spreads
Use defined-risk VIX put spread strategies to express a view on lower volatility.
These trades balance potential losses if volatility spikes with gains if volatility declines moderately.
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First published in 1934, Security Analysis is a seminal work in the field of finance that lays the intellectual foundation for value investing. The book, written by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, distinguishes between investing and speculating, emphasizes the importance of thorough financial analysis, and introduces key concepts such as the 'margin of safety.' The sixth edition includes commentary from leading Wall Street money managers and a foreword by Warren E. Buffett, who has praised the book for its enduring relevance in modern markets.
In six short trading days from 4/2 to 4/9, the SPX realized as much vol as it did during the ENTIRE year of 2024. The protracted risk-off that began with the “Liberation Day” fallout ranks only behind Covid and the GFC in terms of severity using data going back to 1990. While we've likely moved past peak VIX, in the aftermath of recent chaos is an overhang of uncertainty that may hamper critical decision-making. I see plenty of lingering uncertainties - from the uneven communication from the WH, from the unpriced reactions of our trading partners and from how the market will need to price in the potential economic and corporate profit fallout from the last several weeks.
Unfortunately, the recent period has been a totally unforced exercise in negative branding for both the dollar and US government bond market. For the VIX to run to 50 and for duration not to rally concurrently is a bad outcome, amounting to an asset pricing taste test that went poorly. Scott Bessent and Company need to more effectively safeguard one of our most prized possessions, the US government bond market. The Ten-Year note, not the SPX, is the risk asset. The real financial tail risk that would bring about a spiral higher in the VIX would seem to lie in the potential that long-dated UST yields rise quickly. From a contagion standpoint, the Ten Year is the vulnerability. It’s not being treated as such.
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