Alpha Exchange

Dean Curnutt
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17 snips
Nov 25, 2025 • 21min

Price is the Only Fundamental

Recent declines in equity and crypto markets highlight the intriguing concept of price as the sole fundamental. Volatility has surged, leading to significant daily market moves. The discussion includes the implications of reflexivity, where price influences narratives and shapes investment behavior. Dean examines the vulnerability of AI stocks amid market corrections and explores Bitcoin's dramatic drawdown amid crowding concerns. He categorizes various sources of uncertainty affecting these markets, creating a compelling exploration of the current financial landscape.
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8 snips
Nov 21, 2025 • 44min

Megan Miller, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Options Solutions, Allspring Global Investments

Megan Miller is a Senior Portfolio Manager and Heads Options Solutions at Allspring Global Investments, with a rich background in market volatility. She shares insights on using a GARCH-like model to forecast volatility and identify mispriced options. Megan highlights the impact of technology on efficient call overwriting and discusses the rising demand for customized income-oriented solutions amid market shifts. She emphasizes the importance of education and support for clients in understanding complex options strategies.
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36 snips
Nov 18, 2025 • 56min

Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V

Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V, dives into the transformative power of AI, likening it to electricity. He argues against the 'bubble' label, emphasizing AI's role in shaping various industries and its insatiable demand for compute resources. Jordi discusses the volatility surrounding AI investments, the effects on the labor market, and why Fed policies are lagging behind technological advancements. He also touches on the potential of tokenization in increasing market liquidity and the geopolitical implications of emerging technologies.
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25 snips
Oct 28, 2025 • 51min

Alex Kazan, Partner and Geopolitical Co-Lead, Brunswick Group

In this engaging discussion, Alex Kazan, a partner at Brunswick Group, delves into the complex interplay of US politics and global economic stability. He reveals how structural issues, hyper-partisanship, and the fallout from crises like the GFC and pandemic have made the US a significant source of international risk. Alex emphasizes the growing weaponization of economic tools like tariffs, urging multinational firms to adapt their strategies. The conversation also touches on the implications of AI in workplaces and the delicate balance needed in US-China relations.
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9 snips
Oct 28, 2025 • 24min

Is US Stock Market Wealth a Reflexive Risk?

In this engaging discussion, the concentration of the S&P 500’s wealth in a small number of tech giants raises concerns about systemic risk. The interplay between rising market capitalizations and corporate spending is explored, along with its impact on consumer wealth amidst a soft labor market. Gold's volatility signals broader market risks, while prediction markets are discussed as innovative tools for real-time probability assessment. The dynamics of option trading amplify asset movements, creating a unique financial landscape.
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42 snips
Oct 22, 2025 • 50min

Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy Société Générale

Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Société Générale, dives into the fascinating world of commodities, highlighting their unique duality of physical and financial markets. He explains how real-world frictions like storage and transport shape volatility and risk, contrasting it with equities. Ben also discusses the implications of market shocks, such as the 2020 negative WTI incident, and illustrates his commodity risk absorption analogy using CDO structures. Furthermore, he tackles the complexities of financialization and the structural differences in volatility risk premiums.
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47 snips
Oct 1, 2025 • 25min

Low Correlation is the Defining Risk in Markets

Dive into the intriguing world of market dynamics as record-low stock correlations in the S&P 500 raise alarms. Discover how mega-cap firms seem interconnected yet stay uncorrelated, and explore historical parallels to past market crises. The complexities of dispersion trades reveal vulnerabilities that could lead to significant losses during market shocks. Learn about the unusual stickiness of implied volatility and practical risk management strategies, urging investors to rethink assumptions in the context of potential AI-driven market shifts.
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34 snips
Sep 19, 2025 • 57min

David Puritz, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Shaolin Capital Management

David Puritz, the Founder and CIO of Shaolin Capital Management, shares insights on convertible bonds and uncorrelated investment strategies. He emphasizes the importance of risk management, suggesting that early purchases should often be at unfavorable prices to capitalize later. David discusses the complexities of the convertible market, including risks associated with high implied volatility and the dynamics of pricing. He also highlights the importance of diversification and explores innovative investment opportunities in AI and cryptocurrency.
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49 snips
Sep 15, 2025 • 32min

RoR: Reflections on Risk

Dive into the fascinating world of volatility, where low SPX realized volatility can trick investors into underestimating risk. Discover a 5-part framework assessing the worth of market insurance and learn about proxy hedges offering great value in current markets. The GOAT portfolio shines with its mix of gold, Bitcoin, and strategic options to mitigate risks. Lastly, unravel the complexities of options trading and the critical role of market signals, cautioning against over-relying on transient asset correlations. A thought-provoking discussion awaits!
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18 snips
Sep 2, 2025 • 54min

Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics, Harvard and Former Chief Economist, IMF

Ken Rogoff, a Harvard Economics professor and former IMF Chief Economist, dives deep into the dynamics of the U.S. dollar's dominance. He highlights the unique advantages of this status, like lower borrowing costs and sanctions power, while cautioning about the associated vulnerabilities. Rogoff shares insights from historical currency crises and warns against complacency regarding fiscal policy. He emphasizes that the future of dollar dominance hinges on maintaining central bank independence and navigating political influences on economic stability.

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