Alpha Exchange Closing Thoughts on 2025
Dec 31, 2025
Discover the thrilling market dynamics of 2025, highlighted by a wild VIX day, a dramatic surge in Oracle, and a chaotic gold meltdown. Delve into the emerging 'stock up, vol up' phenomenon, where rising stocks lead to increased implied volatility, driven by fears of missing out. Explore the unsettling low correlation among stocks that may mask true market risks, and gain insights on the implications of these trends for 2026. The discussion uncovers how AI market concentration may introduce systemic vulnerabilities ahead.
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Episode notes
Personal Reflection And Microjoy Recommendation
- Dean Curnutt shares a personal holiday moment and the loss of his family dog Griffin to set a reflective tone.
- He recommends Allegra Cohen's TEDx talk on "microjoy" to recentre during breaks.
April 7th VIX Roller Coaster
- April 7th showed markets' fragility when the VIX swung wildly on unreliable tariff news.
- Dean argues policy reversals (the administration's "nevermind") restored order and taught trading the policy response.
Oracle's Post-Earnings Vol And Credit Move
- Dean recounts Oracle's September 10 earnings surge that drove a 36% jump and briefly made Larry Ellison the richest person.
- He notes Oracle's equity vol doubled and its five-year CDS widened by 100 bps since that spike.