More or Less: Behind the Stats

Nobel memorial prize winner Daniel Kahneman is one of the world’s most famous psychologists, known particularly for his work identifying the role of cognitive bias in everyday decision making. In this edition of More or Less he talks to Tim Harford about his latest book, Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgement, in which he outlines how a multitude of often irrelevant factors influence important decisions, whether in job interviews, the courtroom or workplaces generally - and what we can do about it.

Some recent, and surprising, estimates from the World Health Organisation suggested that the UK fared better than Germany in the pandemic. But did they get it right?At Eurovision this year an algorithm was apparently used to replace whole countries’ votes - was it responsible for the UK’s second-place finish?The global economy has been putting the squeeze on many of us this year. Various factors have caused food, fuel and energy prices to rocket and many households are starting to feel the pinch. We speak to economist Duncan Weldon about whether this year is the worst hit to the cost of living since records began.An unusually large contingent of children are set to hit English secondary schools just as the number of 21 year olds dips – so are we heading for a teaching crunch in England?Produced in partnership with The Open University.

In the fight against global warming we’re constantly told to do our bit to reduce green house gas emissions. However, a claim circulating that just ‘100 companies are responsible for 71% of global emissions’ can make any individual effort seem futile. But does this claim mean what you think it means? We look into this and the claim that the pandemic pushed South African stress levels up by 56%. With guests Abbas Panjwani from Fullfact and Kirsten Cosser from Africa Check.(Image: Power plant emitting smoke at sunset. Credit: Enviromantic/Getty)

The World Health Organisation recently released some new estimates of the global death toll of the pandemic. But the figures for a few countries have caused controversy. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Jon Wakefield, who worked on the analysis - and Indian data journalist Rukmini S about the debate that’s erupted in India over the figures.(man puzzled at blackboard. Credit: Getty images)

Tim Harford dives into the alarming world of ocean acidification, unpacking the significance of pH changes and their logarithmic scale. Discover how a seemingly small decline in pH translates to a staggering 30% increase in acidity over recent years. Explore the dire consequences for marine life, including coral reefs and shellfish, as acidity rises by 43% since pre-industrial times. This thought-provoking discussion calls for a deeper understanding of these changes and their implications for marine ecosystems and food security.

Sweden's controversial pandemic strategy raises eyebrows and sparks debate. Supporters lauded its success, dismissing lockdowns, while critics decry its failure. The discussion dives into mortality rates and the complexities of comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors. Using excess mortality as a key metric reveals the nuanced truth behind public perceptions. The conversation encourages a more informed understanding of the implications of Sweden's approach, particularly regarding the care of its elderly versus younger communities.

How do you go about understanding a country with a population as diverse as it is vast?Data journalist Rukmini S is the author of Whole Numbers and Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India. Tim Harford spoke to her about the power and pitfalls of using statistics to make sense of modern India, from basic questions like average income to the huge challenges of keeping track of Covid.

Dive into the world of numbers with insights on subitizing, the ability to quickly grasp small quantities. Discover how effective communication shapes public perception, especially during critical times like the COVID pandemic. Authors Chip Heath and Karla Starr highlight the art of simplifying complex numerical concepts for better understanding, while cautioning against oversimplification that can distort important issues like government spending and taxes. It's all about finding the right balance in conveying numerical information!

Could a surge in tea-drinking have led to fewer deaths in 18th century England? An economist uncovers fascinating data linking tea shipments to improved public health. The reduction in tea tariffs allowed more people access to boiling water, which inadvertently enhanced hygiene. Analyzing mortality rates reveals how tea's popularity intersected with water quality issues, painting a surprising picture of health improvements during the Industrial Revolution. Discover how a simple drink might have shaped public health in unexpected ways!

In a captivating discussion with Hannah Ritchie, an expert in global data analysis from the University of Oxford, insights into the Ukrainian war's impact on wheat supply unravel. They debunk the myth that the conflict will lead to a global wheat crisis, exposing the complexities of agricultural markets. Ritchie emphasizes that existing stockpiles and increased production in other countries may mitigate shortages. The conversation also touches on the interconnectedness of energy prices and food security, challenging common misconceptions about the situation.