More or Less: Behind the Stats Will the war in Ukraine cause a global wheat shortage?
Apr 2, 2022
In a captivating discussion with Hannah Ritchie, an expert in global data analysis from the University of Oxford, insights into the Ukrainian war's impact on wheat supply unravel. They debunk the myth that the conflict will lead to a global wheat crisis, exposing the complexities of agricultural markets. Ritchie emphasizes that existing stockpiles and increased production in other countries may mitigate shortages. The conversation also touches on the interconnectedness of energy prices and food security, challenging common misconceptions about the situation.
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Global Wheat Supply Misconception
- Russia and Ukraine produce about 13% of global wheat, not 25% as some headlines claim.
- They export only half of their production, about 6-7% of the world's total, due to domestic consumption.
Potential Wheat Shortfall
- The actual wheat shortfall may be less than 6-7% because Russia and Ukraine have already exported some crops.
- Other countries might increase production or use existing stockpiles to address the shortfall.
Anticipatory Wheat Production
- Countries might have anticipated the wheat shortage and increased production due to rising wheat future prices before the war.
- There's speculative data suggesting increased production, but no firm confirmation yet.