Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

In the past weeks, Donald Trump caused alarm bells to go off in the European capitals, stating that he would “encourage” Russia to punish his European NATO allies that do not reach the spending requirements, were he elected US president for the second time. Shortly after, Estonian intelligence revealed Russia has plans to beef up its military presence near Finland and the Baltic states.In this episode, recorded live from the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR board member Arancha González Laya, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean of the Paris School of International Affairs, along with distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who leads ECFR’s brand new defence initiative. Together, they discuss how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency. What dangers does a second Trump term hold for Europe? How should it respond if Trump abandons Ukraine on his first day in office? What consequences will America’s gradual disengagement have for Europe’s role in the world?This podcast was recorded during the Munich Security Conference (16-18 February 2024)Bookshelf:The Divider, Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan GlasserLes Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie by Sylvie KauffmannFoolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity by Sander van der Linden Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the United States’ presidential election just a few months away, the stakes go far beyond domestic politics. The results will decide the future of American foreign policy, at least for the next four years. In the corridors of power in Washington, US policymakers will need to adapt to a new leadership and navigate the complexities of today’s international system accordingly.In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes political scientist Joseph Nye, who served as the former assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs and chair of the national intelligence council during Bill Clinton’s first presidency. He is also the former Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and co-founder to the international relations theory of neoliberalism. Together, they discuss Nye’s new book “A Life in the American Century”. Are there similarities between today’s great power competition and the days of the cold war? Should we be optimistic about America’s (and by extension, the West’s) long-term prospects? Where is China headed?This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2024. Bookshelf:A Life in the American Century | Joseph NyeChip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology | Chris MillerOverreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise | Susan L. Shirk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Facing a major war in Europe, as well as an expanding conflict in the Middle East, it is increasingly important for European leaders to meet the security challenges of tomorrow. This week, the inaugural event of ECFR’s new defence initiative brought together a strategic community of leaders and practitioners to think creatively and practically about how Europe can strengthen its role as a geopolitical actor and global powerFrom the event in Brussels, Mark Leonard welcomes distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who is the former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO and is now leading ECFR’s work on defence and disruptive technologies in European security. Together, they discuss where Europe’s defence sector is headed. What is the current state of play? How can NATO and the EU work together while avoiding duplication? What should Europeans be doing to plan for the day when they can no longer depend on US security guarantees?This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2024.Bookshelf:Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie | Sylvie Kauffmann Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses the recent airstrikes in the Red Sea, the motivations of the Houthis, negotiations with Saudi Arabia, the importance of the Red Sea in global terms, ongoing conflict in Yemen, and geopolitical competition in the region.

Every year, the International Rescue Committee publishes an emergency watchlist, an assessment of the 20 countries at greatest risk of humanitarian emergency. According to the IRC’s report for 2024, the scope of this year’s challenges is broad: Gaza and the West Bank rank only second on the watchlist, behind Sudan. And Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan don’t even make the top ten. In this week’s podcast, recorded at the World Economic Forum in snowy Davos, Mark Leonard welcomes David Miliband, former British foreign secretary, now president and CEO of the IRC and an ECFR council member, to discuss the organisation’s priorities for 2024. How can Europe address this year’s crises? What will happen if we do not act?This podcast was recorded on 18 January 2024. Bookshelf:Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things | Adam GrantWavewalker: Breaking Free | Suzanne Heywood Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Change is inevitable, and so is our beloved predictions episode. As always, Mark Leonard and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro start the year off by revisiting the ten predictions they made last year and then look into their crystal ball at the forces that will shape the upcoming one. Their predictions for 2023 left them with a score of 7/10. Will they do better this year? Let us know if you think they missed something! You can write your own predictions to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu. This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This month, ECFR’s Africa Forum brought together African and European policymakers and thinkers for discussions on the two continents’ strategic partnerships in the changing global order. In this new episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes the head of ECFR’s Africa programme, Theo Murphy. They are joined by ECFR visiting fellow, Adebayo Olukoshi, who is a distinguished research professor at the Witts School of Governance in South Africa; and Brian Kagoro, managing director of programmes at the Open Society Foundations. How do Africans view Europe and the EU’s role in the world? What steps can Europeans take to improve their relationships in Africa? Which powers are competing with Europeans for attention in Africa? And what is the EU’s unique selling proposition?This episode was recorded on 12 December, 2023.Bookshelf:Keepers of the Flame: Understanding Amnesty InternationalThe First Black Slave Society: Britain’s “Barbarity Time” in Barbados, 1636-1876 | Hilary McD. Beckles Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Going into the holiday season, the mood among Ukraine’s supporters far from festive. It is difficult to escape a sense that general war fatigue is kicking in, as Europeans bicker over military aid, dysfunction paralyses the US Congress, and the war in Gaza continues to hog the world’s attention. What is more, the frontiers of the Ukraine war have barely budged since last year.In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia programme, and Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow at ECFR. What is the current state of the war? Whatever happened to Ukraine’s much-heralded counteroffensive? And what steps can the West take to help Ukraine prepare for what 2024 might have in store?This episode was recorded on 4 December, 2023Bookshelf:The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida by Shehan KarunatilakaBefore the West. The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Second only to the United States, the Gulf countries have emerged as key players in the Israel-Hamas war. Qatar has been a crucial go-between in negotiating the recent hostage return and seven-day ceasefire, but has also come under fire for its chummy relationship with Hamas. The United Arab Emirates, for its part, has maintained a studious neutrality and appears more keen on preserving economic ties with Israel than getting pulled into the conflict. And as the region’s biggest player, Saudi Arabia could still play a decisive role in bringing Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table after the war ends (at least the Biden administration hopes so). What is at stake for the Gulf? And is there a constructive role for the region’s countries to play as Israel continues its fight against Hamas amid mounting international criticism?In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes ECFR visiting fellow, Cinzia Bianco, and senior policy fellow, Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.This podcast was recorded during the Doha Forum on 8 December 2023.Bookshelf:Emperor of Rome: Ruling the Ancient Roman World | Mary Beard Seeking Stability Amidst Disorder: The Foreign Policies of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, 2010-20 | Tobias Borck Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“Digital empires” – the geopolitical entities that wield their influence and control in the digital landscape – shape much of how we interact with the online world. Currently, the United States, China, and the European Union are taking the lead, with their substantial investments in technology, innovation, and digital infrastructure, and their efforts to shape and regulate the digital economy. In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Anu Bradford, author and Henry L. Moses professor of law and international organization at Columbia University, to discuss her new book “Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology”. In it, she argues that the global regulatory battle between the US, China, and the EU is intensifying, as they try to rein in powerful tech companies while attempting to expand their influence in the digital world. What role do the companies being regulated have to play? Do they have any agency in this great regulatory game? What about the rest of the world’s digital influence? Bookshelf: Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology | Anu BradfordSlow horses - Apple TV Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.