The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
Aug 30, 2024
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Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asian Studies, dives into the dynamic geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia. She discusses how ASEAN influences regional identity amidst China's rising power and the U.S.-China rivalry. Lynn highlights shifting alliances, particularly recent polling reflecting support for these powers across countries like the Philippines and Laos. The conversation also covers the pragmatic responses of Southeast Asian nations to global events like the Ukraine invasion, showcasing their unique balance of realism and values.
Southeast Asia is transitioning towards a multipolar world, leading to a significant shift in regional alliances, particularly favoring China over the U.S.
ASEAN plays a vital role in promoting stability and cooperation among diverse political systems, despite regional challenges like the South China Sea dispute.
Deep dives
Shifting Attitudes Towards Global Powers
Southeast Asian countries are increasingly observing the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world, with significant implications for their foreign relations. An annual poll recently indicated a noteworthy shift in sentiment, with more Southeast Asians favoring China over the United States for the first time in years, reflecting a changing perception of power dynamics. The Philippines remains a notable ally of the U.S., but other nations, particularly those with close economic ties to China, such as Laos, are starting to favor China more significantly. This shift raises questions about the long-term implications for U.S.-China relations in a region traditionally reliant on the U.S. for security.
The Role of ASEAN in Regional Stability
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plays a crucial role in maintaining stability amidst rising U.S.-China tensions, serving as a platform for member countries to pursue diplomatic and economic cooperation. Constituting a diverse group of nations with varying political systems, ASEAN’s intrinsic goal is to promote regional peace and stability while navigating complex geopolitical challenges. Key issues include the South China Sea dispute, where member states exhibit differing stances on how to engage with China's assertiveness, and the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. Despite internal challenges, ASEAN remains an essential framework through which Southeast Asian countries can collectively manage external pressures.
Navigating Economic Ties Amid Geopolitical Rivalries
Southeast Asian nations are adeptly managing their economic ties with both China and the U.S., experiencing benefits from the ongoing U.S.-China competition. Countries like Vietnam and Malaysia have emerged as favorable alternatives for companies looking to diversify their supply chains away from China, capitalizing on the current climate of 'decoupling.' However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of these economic strategies as the geopolitical competition evolves. While some countries hedge economically, they remain wary of the potential destabilizing effects of an increasingly polarized global environment.
Institutional Strategies for Global Engagement
A variety of regional and international institutions shape Southeast Asia's global engagement strategies, with ASEAN at the forefront of facilitating cooperation among member states. Despite the differences in political ideologies and governance models of its members, ASEAN acts as a collective entity to enhance regional stability and serve as a counterbalance to great power influences. Recent ambitions from countries like Malaysia and Thailand to join BRICS illustrate a desire to diversify their partnerships as they navigate a complex international landscape. The region's focus on maintaining autonomy in foreign policy underscores an ongoing effort to avoid being coerced into choosing sides between competing powers.
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s 11 countries varies from democracy to autocracy, many cooperate through organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and BRICS.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asian Studies at the Brookings Institution, and senior fellow at the University of Cambridge, to discuss how such organisations are shaping regional politics. What impact is membership having on the foreign policy of member states? Why are certain south-east Asian countries attracted to specific organisations? And how might competition between China and the United States benefit the region?
This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator.