Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Exploring the shift from decoupling to de-risking in global economies, focusing on reducing reliance on China. Discussing the origins and practical implications of de-risking, as well as the impact on European countries and the global economy. Delving into subversion risks in supply chains and contrasting EU and US approaches. Exploring future scenarios of de-risking policies towards China under different US administrations, and discussing economic statecraft and British political dysfunction.

The death toll in Gaza now exceeds 30,000. Five months into the war, much of the sympathy the international community had for Israel following the 7 October attacks has evaporated amid such violence and destruction.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, and research director and director of ECFR’s new US programme Jeremy Shapiro. Together, they discuss the current situation in Gaza and how the war could create the opportunity for a “grand bargain” which could unblock the previously stuck status quo and solve the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict. How likely is it that there will be a ceasefire in time for Ramadan? How are US and European governments responding to the war? And what are the odds that we could end up with a grand bargain that results in a two-state solution?This episode was recorded on 7 March 2024.Bookshelf: The Gaza Crisis: Mapping the Middle East's Shifting Battle Lines by Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Cinzia Bianco The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher AndrewCrash Landing on You – a tvN television seriesThe Imperfectionists by Tom RachmanGaza: A History by Jean-Pierre Filiu Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses how NATO accession could strengthen Ukraine's position against Russia, drawing parallels to West Germany's history. The importance of setting clear red lines for Moscow and European efforts to ensure lasting peace in the region are highlighted. The episode explores perspectives on negotiations with Russia and the potential de-escalation impact of Ukraine's NATO membership.

Tomorrow the war in Ukraine will enter its third year. Kyiv’s counteroffensive has proved much less successful than the Ukrainian government had hoped. And as Western support threatens to dry up, Ukraine’s setbacks are mounting. Last weekend, while speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was forced to admit that the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region had fallen to the Russians, which he blamed on a lack of ammunition and, by implication, on a lack of Western support.In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Gustav Gressel and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro, who also heads our new US programme, to understand which factors will determine the course of the war in the coming year. Who does the current status quo most benefit? Could Ukraine’s recent setbacks and Navalny’s death encourage more Western support for Kyiv? And what impact will elections in Europe and the US have?This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2024.Bookshelf:The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher AndrewWars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the past weeks, Donald Trump caused alarm bells to go off in the European capitals, stating that he would “encourage” Russia to punish his European NATO allies that do not reach the spending requirements, were he elected US president for the second time. Shortly after, Estonian intelligence revealed Russia has plans to beef up its military presence near Finland and the Baltic states.In this episode, recorded live from the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR board member Arancha González Laya, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean of the Paris School of International Affairs, along with distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who leads ECFR’s brand new defence initiative. Together, they discuss how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency. What dangers does a second Trump term hold for Europe? How should it respond if Trump abandons Ukraine on his first day in office? What consequences will America’s gradual disengagement have for Europe’s role in the world?This podcast was recorded during the Munich Security Conference (16-18 February 2024)Bookshelf:The Divider, Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan GlasserLes Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie by Sylvie KauffmannFoolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity by Sander van der Linden Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the United States’ presidential election just a few months away, the stakes go far beyond domestic politics. The results will decide the future of American foreign policy, at least for the next four years. In the corridors of power in Washington, US policymakers will need to adapt to a new leadership and navigate the complexities of today’s international system accordingly.In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes political scientist Joseph Nye, who served as the former assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs and chair of the national intelligence council during Bill Clinton’s first presidency. He is also the former Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and co-founder to the international relations theory of neoliberalism. Together, they discuss Nye’s new book “A Life in the American Century”. Are there similarities between today’s great power competition and the days of the cold war? Should we be optimistic about America’s (and by extension, the West’s) long-term prospects? Where is China headed?This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2024. Bookshelf:A Life in the American Century | Joseph NyeChip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology | Chris MillerOverreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise | Susan L. Shirk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Facing a major war in Europe, as well as an expanding conflict in the Middle East, it is increasingly important for European leaders to meet the security challenges of tomorrow. This week, the inaugural event of ECFR’s new defence initiative brought together a strategic community of leaders and practitioners to think creatively and practically about how Europe can strengthen its role as a geopolitical actor and global powerFrom the event in Brussels, Mark Leonard welcomes distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who is the former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO and is now leading ECFR’s work on defence and disruptive technologies in European security. Together, they discuss where Europe’s defence sector is headed. What is the current state of play? How can NATO and the EU work together while avoiding duplication? What should Europeans be doing to plan for the day when they can no longer depend on US security guarantees?This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2024.Bookshelf:Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie | Sylvie Kauffmann Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses the recent airstrikes in the Red Sea, the motivations of the Houthis, negotiations with Saudi Arabia, the importance of the Red Sea in global terms, ongoing conflict in Yemen, and geopolitical competition in the region.

Every year, the International Rescue Committee publishes an emergency watchlist, an assessment of the 20 countries at greatest risk of humanitarian emergency. According to the IRC’s report for 2024, the scope of this year’s challenges is broad: Gaza and the West Bank rank only second on the watchlist, behind Sudan. And Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan don’t even make the top ten. In this week’s podcast, recorded at the World Economic Forum in snowy Davos, Mark Leonard welcomes David Miliband, former British foreign secretary, now president and CEO of the IRC and an ECFR council member, to discuss the organisation’s priorities for 2024. How can Europe address this year’s crises? What will happen if we do not act?This podcast was recorded on 18 January 2024. Bookshelf:Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things | Adam GrantWavewalker: Breaking Free | Suzanne Heywood Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Change is inevitable, and so is our beloved predictions episode. As always, Mark Leonard and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro start the year off by revisiting the ten predictions they made last year and then look into their crystal ball at the forces that will shape the upcoming one. Their predictions for 2023 left them with a score of 7/10. Will they do better this year? Let us know if you think they missed something! You can write your own predictions to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu. This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.