Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

After years of stalled diplomacy, the US and Iran are back in high-level talks. Surprise meetings have taken place in Oman and Rome, with more expected soon. Could this be President Donald Trump’s long-awaited foreign policy win? Or will competing agendas, regional tensions and internal divisions doom the negotiations before they begin?This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Mohsen Milani, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies and professor of politics at the University of South Florida; and Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs (IAI) in Rome, to explore what both the US and Iran really want out of the talks. What role can Europe play, especially after its failed efforts to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? And how do powers like China and Russia fit into the US-Iran equation?This podcast episode was recorded on April 24th 2025.Bookshelf:No country for love by Yaroslav TrofimovCapernaum by Khaled Mouzanar Iran's Rise and Rivalry With the Us in the Middle East: Iran's Rise and Its Geostrategic Rivalry With the Us in the Middle East by Mohsen Milani Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Two weeks after Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement shook global markets, he has now offered most countries a 90-day reprieve—while simultaneously escalating trade tensions with China by imposing harsher penalties. So far, China has responded by matching each tariff hike with its own response.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of its geoeconomics initiative, and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to delve into the complexities of the China-US trade war. Together, they explore the current tariff landscape, the strategies employed by both nations, and the implications for Europe and other external actors. They also discuss China’s aggressive response, potential trade chokepoints and the potential for regional diplomacy.Who will blink first, Xi Jinping or Trump? Is this a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies? And what risks and opportunities does the US-China trade war carry for Europe?This podcast episode was recorded on April 17th 2025.Bookshelf:The Most Dangerous Place: A History of the United States in South Asia by Srinath RaghavanThe Year of the Hare by Arto PaasilinnaGeoTechnoGraphy: Mapping Power and Identity in the Digital Age by Samir Saran and Anirban Sarma Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mujtaba Rahman, managing director, Europe, at Eurasia Group, to explore the evolving dynamic between the EU and the UK. With a new British government under Keir Starmer and shifting global currents, what are the real opportunities—and constraints—for a meaningful reset in EU-UK relations?Mark and Mujtaba discuss the urgency of deeper cooperation on security and defence, the complexity of trade relations, and the need for joint solutions on migration and climate. With a crucial EU-UK summit taking place on May 19th, they argue for an ambitious strategy that includes dynamic alignment, a serious look at the customs union debate, and bolder thinking on how to rebuild trust and deliver tangible results on both sides of the Channel. Can the UK and EU find common ground, or will political caution get in the way? Will ambition triumph over pragmatism? And, in this new chapter, what does success really look like for EU-UK relations?Bookshelf:Age of Vice by Deepti KapoorHouse of Huawei: The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company by Eva DouThis podcast was recorded on April 8th. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, and Camille Grand, a distinguished policy fellow, share fresh insights after their visits to Taipei. They discuss Taiwan's 'porcupine strategy' to deter Chinese aggression and explore parallels with Ukraine's resilience. Their conversation highlights Taiwan's strategic investments, like TSMC’s project in Arizona, as it navigates a complex relationship with the U.S. and China, while emphasizing Europe's role in supporting democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific.

In a gripping conversation, Agathe Demarais, an ECFR senior policy fellow specializing in geoeconomics, discusses the fallout from Donald Trump’s startling tariff announcements. They dive into the potential economic turmoil facing the U.S., including inflation and a looming recession. The duo considers Europe's strategic responses and the fractures in global trade, questioning whether this marks a temporary disruption or the rise of a chaotic economic landscape. They also touch on the shifting dynamics of globalization and the influence of tariffs on consumer behavior.

Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and an expert on French politics, joins the conversation to dissect the recent conviction of Marine Le Pen for misusing EU funds. They unpack the significant implications of Le Pen's five-year ban from public office and its disruption of her 2027 presidential ambitions. Célia also sheds light on the broader impact of this judicial decision on Europe's far-right, discussing how it could energize populist movements or signal a turning point for judicial accountability across the continent.

Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, James Crabtree, a distinguished fellow with expertise in Asia, and Rudra Chowdhury, director at Carnegie India, discuss Europe's strategic shift towards Asia amidst the unpredictable Trump administration. They explore Europe's evolving ties with India, Japan, and South Korea, highlighting the need for strategic autonomy. The panel also examines India's warm view of Trump and its potential role as a bridge in global diplomacy, while considering the complex dynamics with China and the implications for European capitals.

In this conversation, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR's Director of Research and US Programme Director, shares his insights on startling geopolitical shifts. He discusses a scandal involving U.S. officials discussing military strategies in a Signal group chat, revealing their disregard for European allies. The dialogue then shifts to potential U.S.-Russia agreements, hinting at troubling implications for Ukraine and European defense. Shapiro’s analysis raises questions about America’s changing role on the global stage—and whether it might be leaving its traditional allies behind.

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, an associate senior policy fellow for ECFR and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, joins the discussion on Turkey's political turmoil following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, sparking nationwide protests. They delve into how President Erdogan's actions might herald a shift towards authoritarianism, exploring the polarized political landscape and the role of the Kurdish minority. Aydıntaşbaş also highlights Turkey’s strategic maneuvers within a changing global geopolitical context and the waning influence of Europe on Turkish politics.

Mark Leonard chats with Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow at ECFR, specializing in geoeconomics, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office focusing on tech geopolitics. They dive into how Europe can respond to a potentially confrontational Trump administration. Topics include leveraging trade tariffs, targeting tech giants like Elon Musk, and implementing nuanced regulations to manage American influence in Europe. The discussion highlights the risks of escalating tensions and the importance of a self-reliant tech landscape to safeguard democracy.