Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes
Trump’s tariff bombshell: Rewriting the rules of global trade
Apr 3, 2025
In a gripping conversation, Agathe Demarais, an ECFR senior policy fellow specializing in geoeconomics, discusses the fallout from Donald Trump’s startling tariff announcements. They dive into the potential economic turmoil facing the U.S., including inflation and a looming recession. The duo considers Europe's strategic responses and the fractures in global trade, questioning whether this marks a temporary disruption or the rise of a chaotic economic landscape. They also touch on the shifting dynamics of globalization and the influence of tariffs on consumer behavior.
16:50
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Quick takeaways
- Trump's aggressive tariff policies threaten to increase living costs for American households while escalating recession risks for the U.S. economy.
- The EU faces challenges in presenting a united front against U.S. tariffs, raising concerns about the future of global trade cooperation.
Deep dives
Tariff Revolution and Economic Implications
Recent changes in the U.S. tariff system signify a major shift in trade policy, characterized by unconventional calculations for setting tariffs based on trade imbalances. These calculations have raised concerns about their economic rationale, potentially leading to unfavorable impacts on the U.S. economy. Experts warn that the higher tariffs could pass substantial costs onto American consumers, with estimates suggesting an annual expense of about $1,200 for median households due to increased prices. Furthermore, economists foresee a significant risk of recession in the U.S., exacerbated by retaliatory tariffs from other countries, indicating a broader global economic uncertainty.
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