The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

Explore the current landscape of commercial real estate and the alarming rise in delinquency rates, particularly in the office sector. Predict future trends for CMBS issuance and how economic factors will shape 2025. Discover emerging opportunities in cities like San Francisco and Houston, influenced by migration and growth. Delve into urgent infrastructure challenges regarding power and water for developers. The hosts also tease their upcoming 300th milestone with fresh guest insights and engagement opportunities.

We hope all our listeners are having a joyous holiday season and thank you all for tuning in each week. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we take stock of the major commercial real estate (CRE) headlines of 2024 and make sense of it all with Trepp’s data. We provide our insights into both the positive and negative stories we’ve seen this year, including the maturity wall narrative, the bank sector rebound, insurance costs, and major retail bankruptcies. Diving into the data, we look at the 2024 maturity schedule, debt yield numbers, CMBS loans originated, and provide our predictions on future delinquency rates. We wrap up the episode with CRE optimism for 2025. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Maturity Wall (0:51) Insurance Costs (4:55) Retail Bankruptcies (6:45) 2024 Maturity Schedule (12:29) Underwritten Debt Yield (14:49) Delinquency Predictions (16:11) Weighted Average Debt Yield for Urban Office Maturities (23:22) Banking & Lending Snapshot (30:04) CRE Optimism for Next Year (33:39) Preliminary December Delinquency Rate Estimates (38:00) Programming Notes (42:10) Shoutouts (45:02)   Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG    Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.  Follow Trepp:  X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp 

Explore the intriguing economic landscape of 2024, where resiliency and uncertainty dance together. Discover mixed signals from recent economic data and what they mean for investors. The podcast also dives into distressed office properties and the fate of major portfolio loans entering special servicing. Hear about Party City's potential second bankruptcy and the significant dynamics in multifamily and retail markets. It's a rollercoaster of insights, trends, and lighthearted holiday cheer that you won’t want to miss!

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Bernadette Brennan, Managing Director, and Owen Toland, Real Estate Salesperson at SERHANT. Known for its presence on the Netflix show, "Owning Manhattan," SERHANT is a full-service real estate agency, and Bernadette and Owen are here to discuss the commercial side of the business. We dive into the shift in the real estate landscape post-pandemic, discussing the rise of owner-user purchases, the contrast between Class A and B offices, and the retail leasing market. We also hear stories of high-profile clients and unusual deals that would make great reality TV. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Bernadette's Journey from Music to Real Estate (01:41) - Owen's Path to Commercial Real Estate (03:35) - Current State of New York City Real Estate (05:00) - Retail Leasing Insights and Market Trends (10:58) - Building the Commercial Division at SERHANT (15:32) - Unique Client Stories and High-Profile Deals (19:11) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts (27:46)   Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG      Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.     Follow Trepp:   X: www.x.com/TreppWire  LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp  

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the latest CPI reading, expected Fed interest rate cut, nonfarm payrolls, and the City of Yes zoning reform plan that was approved by the New York City Council this week. In commercial real estate news, we examine the latest talks of spinning off Macy’s real estate portfolio and the Kroger and Albertsons merger that turned into a lawsuit.  We also examine several office stories, including a residential conversion, large lease renewal and acquisitions and appraisal value reductions. In multifamily we talk about a student-housing acquisition and a few special servicing transfers and value reductions. Tune in now.    Episode Notes: - Economic Update: latest CPI reading, expected Fed rate cut, Macy’s real estate portfolio, Kroger-Albertson’s merger turned lawsuit, nonfarm payrolls (00:23) - Wall Street firms, AvalonBay Communities, a multifamily REIT, buying or developing single-family homes (13:19) - City of Yes Zoning Reform Plan Approved by City Council (19:29) - Office stories: residential conversion, acquisitions, lease renewal and appraisal value reductions (26:44) - Multifamily: student-housing acquisition & special servicing transfers (38:32) - Lodging: value reduction of a Portland hotel (44:13) - Programming Notes (46:36) - Shoutouts (48:36)   Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG    Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.  Follow Trepp:  X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp 

Seth Glasser, Senior Managing Director at Marcus & Millichap, shares his expertise as a top multifamily agent in New York. He discusses the challenges of NYC's evolving legislation and the shifting market dynamics. Interesting insights emerge on the role of government in housing and the complexities of 1031 exchanges. Seth also highlights the growing demand for affordable housing and the impact of economic changes on buyer motivations. Tune in for a deep dive into the opportunities awaiting investors in the NYC multifamily sector!

The discussion kicks off with a deep dive into economic indicators, examining whether we're truly on a soft landing path or facing hard truths. Recent billion-dollar commercial real estate deals grab attention, especially highlighting notable acquisitions. The spotlight is also on alarming double-digit office delinquencies, raising questions about the sector's health. Plus, Burlington reveals plans to open 100 new stores by 2025, and Spinoza's strategic buy of White Marsh Mall adds intrigue to the retail landscape.

This week dives into the contrasting fates of consumers, with insights on Walmart's and Target's retail performances. The discussion also highlights Blackstone's $200 million Soho acquisition and the challenges faced by malls like Rimrock and Riverside Park. Attention turns to substantial commercial loans, including a dramatic refinancing of $3 billion and SL Green's notable Park Avenue purchase. Wrapping up, the hosts reflect on gratitude, the upcoming NYU conference, and the complexities of navigating the current real estate market.

Topics include NYC's ban on tenant-paid broker fees and the economic impact of potential Trump tariffs. Blackstone's $8 billion acquisition of Jersey Mike's raises questions about the retail sector's future. Floyd Mayweather Jr. makes waves with an investment in distressed office properties. Other highlights feature significant trading alerts in Manhattan and celebrity real estate moves, including John Mayer's $40 million purchase of the Jim Henson Company Lot. The episode also covers the financial strains facing companies like Red Lobster.

Tune in for an engaging discussion on recent macroeconomic shifts and their impact on the commercial real estate landscape. The conversation highlights rising special servicing rates, particularly in the distressed office sector. Discover insights from the October Senior Loan Officer Survey and the latest sentiment survey from industry experts. They also explore recent trends across multifamily, retail, and industrial markets, including notable transactions and challenges, all while embracing a tone of cautious optimism.