The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

293. Soft Landing or Hard Truth? Billion-Dollar Deals, Double-Digit Office Delinquencies & More

Dec 6, 2024

The discussion kicks off with a deep dive into economic indicators, examining whether we're truly on a soft landing path or facing hard truths. Recent billion-dollar commercial real estate deals grab attention, especially highlighting notable acquisitions. The spotlight is also on alarming double-digit office delinquencies, raising questions about the sector's health. Plus, Burlington reveals plans to open 100 new stores by 2025, and Spinoza's strategic buy of White Marsh Mall adds intrigue to the retail landscape.

54:13

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Quick takeaways

Recent economic indicators show mixed signals, suggesting the possibility of a soft landing despite emerging concerns in various sectors.

Significant CRE loan portfolio transactions, notably by Valley National Bank and Deutsche Bank, highlight strategic moves to mitigate market exposure.

The surge in CMBS delinquency rates, particularly in the office sector, underscores ongoing challenges facing commercial real estate markets.

Deep dives

Economic Data Insights

Recent economic data reveals a mix of positive and concerning indicators as the markets await the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. Manufacturing PMI and construction spending exceeded expectations, while services PMI fell short, reflecting a cooling labor market. Job readings indicated strength yet also a downturn, suggesting the economy is in a soft landing phase. Amid international turmoil, including martial law in South Korea and government instability in France, domestic data remains stable, with the ten-year Treasury yield reassuringly decreasing to around 4.2%.

Intro

6min

Navigating Commercial Real Estate Challenges

17min

Retail Comebacks and Strategic Acquisitions

4min

Navigating Distressed Assets in Commercial Real Estate

19min

Upcoming Webinars and Retail Dynamics: The Impact of Exclusive Releases

5min

Engaging Listener Feedback and New Data Tools Announcement

4min

This episode is sponsored by EisnerAmper.

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack recent economic, manufacturing PMI, and job data to debate if it is an indication that we’re sticking the soft landing or a false narrative. We discuss the billion- dollar commercial real estate (CRE) headlines of the week from Valley National Bank and Deutsche Bank, as well as a $1 billion venture to identify and support office-to-residential projects. We dive into Trepp’s CMBS Delinquency Report, with the office delinquency rate surpassing 10% in November. We close the episode with credit and transaction stories, including Burlington opening 100 net new stores in 2025, large acquisitions, and a retail and parking loan sent to special servicing. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

- Economic Update (0:56)

- Valley National Bank $1B CRE Loans Sale (7:56)

- Deustche Bank Sale of $1 Billion CRE Loan Portfolio (10:11)

- Office-to-residential Projects Fund (13:42)

- Trepp CMBS Delinquencies (19:02)

- Burlington Opening 100 New Stores in 2025 (31:15)

- Spinoso Real Estate Group Purchasing White Marsh Mall (25:27)

- Seattle Retail and Parking Loan Sent to Special Servicing (33:50)

- $79.5 Million Central Park of Lisle Loan Lowered (35:41)

- $48.2 Million Cedar Crest Professional Park Loan Slashed (37:50)

- Hotel Purchased in Chelsea NYC (40:31)

- $82 Million Apartment Sale in Tampa (43:52)

- Programming Notes (45:28)

- Shoutouts (47:40)

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Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

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LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

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