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The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show
299. CRE Market Context: 2025 Predictions, Delinquency Perspectives, Credit Events, & Opportunities Ahead
Jan 3, 2025
Explore the current landscape of commercial real estate and the alarming rise in delinquency rates, particularly in the office sector. Predict future trends for CMBS issuance and how economic factors will shape 2025. Discover emerging opportunities in cities like San Francisco and Houston, influenced by migration and growth. Delve into urgent infrastructure challenges regarding power and water for developers. The hosts also tease their upcoming 300th milestone with fresh guest insights and engagement opportunities.
58:30
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Quick takeaways
- The CMBS delinquency rate rose to 6.57%, with the office sector facing significant challenges due to remote work trends.
- Predictions for 2025 suggest an increase in CMBS issuance, potentially reaching $120 billion to $140 billion amid economic stabilization.
Deep dives
Reflection on 2024's Economic Trends
The discussion begins with a reflection on the unpredictable economic landscape of 2024, emphasizing that the financial market did not behave as anticipated. In particular, the 10-year Treasury had an unexpected round trip that complicated predictions for the coming year. The team reflects on how interest rate expectations dramatically changed, with initial optimism about rate cuts not materializing until late in the year. This highlights the inherent uncertainty of financial forecasting, especially in interconnected global markets.
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