The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 299. CRE Market Context: 2025 Predictions, Delinquency Perspectives, Credit Events, & Opportunities Ahead
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Jan 3, 2025 Explore the current landscape of commercial real estate and the alarming rise in delinquency rates, particularly in the office sector. Predict future trends for CMBS issuance and how economic factors will shape 2025. Discover emerging opportunities in cities like San Francisco and Houston, influenced by migration and growth. Delve into urgent infrastructure challenges regarding power and water for developers. The hosts also tease their upcoming 300th milestone with fresh guest insights and engagement opportunities.
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CMBS Delinquency Data History
- CMBS delinquency rates offer valuable context for market analysis, dating back to 2000.
- Trepp provides monthly delinquency reports, revealing trends and potential disruptions.
Office Delinquency at All-Time High
- Office delinquency in CMBS reached an all-time high of 11.01% in December 2024.
- This surpasses the previous high of 10.7% set in 2012.
Government Intervention in the Market
- Government intervention plays a significant role in mitigating potential market downturns.
- This often leads to reported delinquency rates being lower than actual market conditions.