The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

Scott Douglass, Co-Founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer at Prime Finance, shares insights from his extensive background in commercial mortgage-backed securities. He discusses the evolution of B-piece buying from the '90s, emphasizing how the Great Financial Crisis reshaped market dynamics. Listeners learn about the significance of credit comprehension, the resilience of office spaces, and the potential of data centers. Scott also explores CMBS issuance trends and predictions for 2025, highlighting the need for strong platforms in navigating today's complexities.

This week, the hosts dissect economic trends, including rising job openings and manufacturing data, alongside the effects of tariffs on commercial real estate. They share insights into the office market's return to optimism, discussing major transactions like Blackstone's Midtown buy and a significant office-to-residential conversion. Retail news features Walmart's mall acquisition and Amazon's store closures. Finally, there's a lively chat about Super Bowl predictions along with market data for Kansas City and Philadelphia.

Dive into the fascinating impacts of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek on data center demand and tech markets. Explore how the Fed's steady interest rates affect the economy and Trump's federal worker buyout offer reshapes office space needs. Discover Amazon's record-breaking lease in Miami and key loan value reductions across multiple states, like New York and Chicago. The conversation also highlights ongoing multifamily transactions in Arizona, Florida, and Colorado, capturing the shifting dynamics in commercial real estate.

In this discussion, Melody Wright, Owner of Haringa and mortgage strategy expert, shares her insights on the housing market. She examines the disconnect between the narrative of housing shortages and actual market conditions, highlighting rising inventory and affordability challenges. The conversation tackles the barriers to homeownership, including high mortgage rates and the lack of affordable housing options. Wright also explores demographic shifts, consumer preferences, and the complexities of new home construction in today’s economy.

Recent headlines dive into the impacts of executive orders on federal workers and housing affordability. The potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raises questions about CMBS issuance. Multifamily sector trends reveal crucial data on loan maturities and delinquency rates. Noteworthy transactions include Bloomingdale’s closing its San Francisco flagship and Blackstone's purchase of the Kimpton Hotel in New York. The podcast also discusses market pressures on key properties and the changing dynamics in commercial real estate.

Dive into the key takeaways from the recent CRE Finance Council conference, highlighting economic shifts and job report surprises. Explore how California’s wildfire tax challenges are impacting real estate. Get the scoop on big bank earnings and what they mean for the market. Discover intriguing trends in self-storage and lodging loans facing refinancing hurdles. Lastly, check out significant property transactions across various sectors, revealing the dynamic landscape of commercial real estate.

David Auerbach, Chief Investment Officer at Hoya Capital and a veteran of the REIT industry, shares insights on navigating the current and future landscape of Real Estate Investment Trusts. He emphasizes the importance of long-term strategies and dividend growth, exploring current trends like single-family rentals and the evolution of retail spaces. Auerbach also discusses how healthcare REITs adapt to demographic changes and the critical need for diversification in investment portfolios as we approach 2025.

Happy 300th episode of The TreppWire Podcast! In this week’s milestone episode, we are here to share the data behind the headlines. We first reflect on the wildfires in California and the potential impact on real estate, insurance costs, and the market at large. We ‘dig through the data’ into office originations to provide transparency into the performance of the sector. We also provide insight into stories across office, lodging, and multifamily – including a juicy $500k/unit apartment property transaction. Stick around to hear how to enter our podcast giveaway. Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by ⁠EisnerAmper⁠.   Episode Notes: - Episode 300 Milestone (0:27) - Economic update (2:53) - California Wildfires and Prop 13 (3:52) - Office loan originations (10:59) - Office stories: value reduction in NYC and sales transactions in Dallas and Chicago (21:51) - Multifamily: juicy transaction in Virginia, for $500k/unit, and another acquisition in Florida (30:57) - Lodging: special servicing transfer in Florida and a sales transaction in Virginia (37:56) - Programing notes & triple giveaway (44:49) - Shoutouts (45:58)   Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG  Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.    Follow Trepp:  X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp 

Explore the current landscape of commercial real estate and the alarming rise in delinquency rates, particularly in the office sector. Predict future trends for CMBS issuance and how economic factors will shape 2025. Discover emerging opportunities in cities like San Francisco and Houston, influenced by migration and growth. Delve into urgent infrastructure challenges regarding power and water for developers. The hosts also tease their upcoming 300th milestone with fresh guest insights and engagement opportunities.

We hope all our listeners are having a joyous holiday season and thank you all for tuning in each week. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we take stock of the major commercial real estate (CRE) headlines of 2024 and make sense of it all with Trepp’s data. We provide our insights into both the positive and negative stories we’ve seen this year, including the maturity wall narrative, the bank sector rebound, insurance costs, and major retail bankruptcies. Diving into the data, we look at the 2024 maturity schedule, debt yield numbers, CMBS loans originated, and provide our predictions on future delinquency rates. We wrap up the episode with CRE optimism for 2025. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Maturity Wall (0:51) Insurance Costs (4:55) Retail Bankruptcies (6:45) 2024 Maturity Schedule (12:29) Underwritten Debt Yield (14:49) Delinquency Predictions (16:11) Weighted Average Debt Yield for Urban Office Maturities (23:22) Banking & Lending Snapshot (30:04) CRE Optimism for Next Year (33:39) Preliminary December Delinquency Rate Estimates (38:00) Programming Notes (42:10) Shoutouts (45:02)   Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG    Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.  Follow Trepp:  X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp