The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

In this week's episode, we analyze the outlook for the distressed asset market, recent pricing levels, retail valuations, the concept of a “loss waiting to happen,” and the big CRE stories of the week. With Halloween right around the corner, we discuss haunted CRE properties in the New York City area. Episode Notes: When will the other shoe drop? (0:59) Recent CMBS pricing (3:35) Notable CRE stories this week (8:35) A spike in rent concessions (10:49) The outlook for the distressed debt market (15:49) Deal of the Week (21:01) Deal of the Weak and retail valuations (24:17) The latest of returning to the office (28:53) Breaking down a “loss waiting to happen” (34:55) Haunted CMBS properties (40:18)

Our loyal listeners may recall that we recently discussed creating a list of CMBS loans for which the borrower has indicated a willingness to return the collateral to the lender. In this week's episode, we analyze the data behind borrowers looking to give back their keys, the preliminary October CMBS delinquency numbers, and noteworthy valuation cuts. In the last 6 months, corporate CLOs have arguably gone through a full credit cycle. Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance at Trepp, takes us through the various acts that we have witnessed. Episode Notes: The fragile and uneven recovery (1:05) Preliminary October delinquency numbers (9:06) New and noteworthy valuation cuts (14:23) Borrowers giving back their keys in droves (21:48) Hotel subscription models (26:35) Deal of the Week (35:33) A 6 month Corporate CLO credit cycle (37:37) Holiday retail innovation (45:09)

In a special episode, we welcome Eric Thompson, Global Head of Structured Finance at Kroll Bond Rating Agency and Chair-Elect of the CRE Finance Council, to discuss the differences between this pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis, rating new CMBS deals, potential structural changes coming out of this crisis, and challenges that come with a high volume of forbearances. Episode Notes: Comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis (1:22) Structural changes coming out of this recession? (3:40) Rating new CMBS issuance during the pandemic (10:59) Resilient property types (15:12) The vibe in New York City (16:43) Challenges with a high volume of forbearances (21:00)

The big bank Q3 earning reports this week show us that banks with a higher concentration in the capital markets may be weathering the storm better than their peers. In this week's episode, we break down bank earnings, retail property valuations, shadow delinquencies, hotel exposure by MSA, and the potential reduced demand for office space. The podcast team also shares their personal dress codes for remote work. Episode Notes: Consumer and investor sentiment (1:01) Retail property valuations (4:29) Shadow delinquency rates (24:22) Hotel exposure by MSA (32:33) A reduced demand for office space? (35:24) UK market round-up (39:42) Deal of the week (48:09) Bank earnings in Q3 (51:15) Our dress code for remote work (60:00)

We welcome KC Conway, Chief Economist at CCIM, to discuss his predictions for the market, key CRE metrics for assessing the recovery, the convergence of retail and industrial, the increased focus on ESG, areas of opportunity, and the impact of the U.S. election and potential regulatory changes on CRE. Episode Notes: The vibe in Georgia (1:55) A W shaped recovery (3:30) Key CRE metrics to watch (13:30) The convergence of retail and industrial (21:22) Increased focus on ESG (24:43) Areas of opportunity in CRE (30:41) The impact of the election on CRE (32:53)

Amid the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, there have been a number of trends that have directly impacted demand in the self-storage sector. In this week's episode, we analyze the “recession-resistant” self-storage market, the surge in retail and lodging special servicing rates, and the loan payoff report. Manus Clancy also hands out his highly coveted Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” awards. Episode Notes: Are we losing stimulus momentum? (0:57) The surge in retail and lodging in special servicing (5:17) Self-Storage: Analyzing a "recession-resistant" sector (13:25) Economic indicators to watch (18:13) Movie theater CLO exposure (21:03) The Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” awards (28:30) The loan payoff report (36:21) Hotel loans coming to market (46:01)

Certain provisions of the CARES Act provided community banks a delay in the implementation of CECL (current expected credit losses). In this week's episode, we take a deep dive into the world of CECL, the declining CMBS delinquency rate, recent CRE valuations, and CMBS issuance and pricing. We also discuss some creative solutions for celebrating Halloween this year. Episode Notes: Positive news amidst uncertainty (1:01) The declining CMBS delinquency rate (10:19) Recent CMBS issuance and pricing (22:49) Looking at recent CRE valuations (32:24) Analyzing office lease data (40:00) European market round-up (41:57) Deal of the Week (45:16) CECL 101 (47:18)

Since the beginning of the pandemic, reported occupancy rates have remained healthy in the office and multifamily property sectors. However, there are two types of occupancy to consider: physical and economic. In this week's episode, we welcome Lonnie Hendry, Head of Advisory Services at Trepp, to break down occupancy rate calculations, the latest regulatory issues, the performance of CRE loans in bank portfolios vs CMBS, and growth in the single family rental market. Episode Notes: The regulatory roundup (1:09) Performance of CRE loans in bank portfolios vs CMBS (14:13) The big CRE stories this week (22:33) A look at the single family rental market (32:14) Continued uncertainty in the office market (40:24) Physical vs economic occupancy rates (49:05) Deal of the week (52:23) Bankruptcies with CLO exposure (56:23)

In the office market, we’re seeing the fits and starts of a physical return to work play out this week. In this episode, we discuss the mixed bag of office news, takeaways from the mid-month CMBS delinquency report, the first case we’ve seen of a loan deferral with no advancing, and what the holiday season might look like in retail this year. Episode Notes: A relief bill for CRE is looking very unlikely (1:10) Mid-month CMBS delinquency numbers (6:05) Amazon entering the luxury space (15:07) UK retail news (19:14) The fits and starts of returning to the office (22:07) Deal of the Week (36:12) A loan deferral with no advancing (40:07) CLO News: Delta and Chuck E. Cheese (45:12) What will the holiday season look like for retail? (49:58)

Over the last six months, we’ve covered the movements of the CRE finance sector. Looking forward, what changes could we see in the market as a result of the pandemic and the flash recession? In this week's episode, we discuss potential changes in CRE finance, problems in the multifamily sector, the wave of retail news, student housing loans, and strategic defaults in bank loan portfolios. Continuing with our music theme from last week, Manus is feeling nostalgic for the days live Allman Brothers shows. Episode Notes: Latest on the pandemic relief bill (1:14) A wave of retail news (8:34) Potential problems in multifamily (19:38) The return to school: student housing loans (28:34) Banks returning to the office (31:18) Deal of the week (43:12) Strategic defaults in bank loan portfolios (45:37) The future of CRE finance (48:17) The return of vinyl (55:26)