The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

We discuss the CDC’s new eviction moratorium, the Financial Times story covering stress in the CRE market through the lens of a CMBS investor, the increasing focus on the office sector, and hotel valuations in this environment. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped this week after its eight-week high, which spurred Manus’ thoughts for a deep dive. In honor of Labor Day Weekend, the team provides its list of road trip songs befitting of the year 2020. Episode Notes: The CDC’s eviction moratorium (0:59) Signs of stress in the CRE market (12:06) A deep dive into CMBS delinquency data (14:01) The increasing focus on the office sector (19:43) Hotel valuations in this environment (28:00) Retail news from the UK (34:18) Deal of the week (41:09) Treasury yield 101 (43:30) The worst songs of all-time (49:34)

In a normal summer, August results in lighter volume (and more volatility). Of course, this has been a summer like none other. In this week's episode, we break down the macro trends, the most recent CMBS delinquency data, potential forbearances, retail as “the falling knife,” and the top secondary MSAs for CRE investment. Inspired by Bruce Springsteen, Manus explains the similarities between Texaco road maps and the early CMBS mega deals. Episode Notes: Not your typical August (1:11) Takeaways from this month’s delinquency data (10:45) Is retail the “falling knife”? (14:39) A data-driven approach to assessing property values (22:44) The debate on when to return to the office (26:48) The CRE Deal of the Week (38:03) Top secondary MSAs for CRE investment (42:20) Comparing underwritten vs actual NOI (44:58) Life insurance commercial return index surges in Q2 (50:57) CLO exposure to college cafeterias (52:37)

We welcome Fritz Kaegi, Cook County Assessor and former portfolio manager, to discuss CRE property valuations in Chicago, reforming the tax assessment process, the impact of COVID-19 on assessments, and his experience transitioning from the private sector to public office. Episode Notes: Assessing CRE property values in Chicago (5:03) Reforming the assessment process(8:58) The biggest challenge during Fritz’ first year in office (11:01) Generating transparent property valuations (16:45) The impact of COVID on CRE valuations (21:38) From the private sector to public office (26:43) The current vibe in Chicago (30:54) Opportunities in industrial (34:31) For additional resources from the Cook County Assessor's Office, visit trepp.com/the-treppwire-podcast

We examine August CMBS remittance data and what the early delinquency numbers are telling us about the state of the recovery. We dig into big box retail earnings, the flurry of hotel headlines this week, and underwritten NOIs. Professor Manus Clancy also takes us to school for a lesson on CMBS loan modifications. Episode Notes: Big box retail earnings (0:58) Early indications from August CMBS remittance data (8:03) Hotel (and AirBnB) headlines (17:08) Intriguing stories in the office sector (24:34) CRE Deal of the Week (31:06) Analyzing underwritten NOIs (33:23) CMBS loan modifications 101 (42:23) CLO exposure to private prison operators (48:38) Will college reopenings last? (53:41)

We welcome Ryan Severino, Chief Economist at JLL, to discuss government stimulus, potential demographic and systemic changes, “pre-existing conditions” in CRE, the Presidential election’s impact on the markets, and the future of higher education. Episode Notes: Too much or too little government stimulus? (3:11) The election’s potential impact on the markets (11:16) Relief for the hotel industry? (14:49) Creative disruption (18:33) Potential demographic and systemic changes (23:09) “Pre-existing conditions” in CRE (28:38) How an economist’s life has changed (32:37) Economic indicators is Ryan looking at? (35:56) The future of secondary education (40:08)

Five months into the pandemic, the lodging and retail sectors have been battered. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down recent news and performance in those sectors. We also discuss underwritten NOIs, appraisal reductions, the CRE “Deal of the Week,” our new Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” index, and whether or not we’ll be going to the movie theater anytime soon. Episode Notes: Unemployment and a second stimulus (0:53) Is the glass half empty or half full for the economic recovery? (3:16) Looking at underwritten NOIs (9:27) Simon Property Group and Amazon (21:18) An update on the lodging sector (30:53) The Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” index (34:00) CRE Deal of the Week (36:24) Appraisal reductions explained (40:46) AMC Theaters reopening (48:59)

We welcome Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of CRE Direct News, to share the big takeaways from REIT earnings season. With Orest’s REIT expertise, we dig into performance by sector - hotel, retail, multifamily and office. We also discuss the growing forbearance tally, noteworthy stories in the corporate CLO market, and our “Deal of the Week.” Episode Notes: Observations from Philly (1:12) The next round of stimulus relief (5:47) Clobbered hotel REITs (12:20) Are retail REITs doing any better? (20:22) Occupancy impacting multifamily REITs yet? (24:22) Mortgage REIT performance (31:16) A look at office REITs (37:14) Deal of the Week (46:27) Forbearance tally continues to grow (48:03) Noteworthy stories in the Corporate CLO market (54:32) Will virtual education work? (56:17)

We welcome Lonnie Hendry, Head of Advisory Services at Trepp, for a deep dive into the HOPE Act and the potential impacts of eliminating the 1031 Exchange. We also analyze the big drop in the CMBS delinquency rate and shadow vacancy rates in the office market. In our new “Deals of the Week” segment, we highlight notable CRE transactions across the country. Episode Notes: Observations from Texas (1:16) The big drop in CMBS delinquency rates (3:00) What’s happening with JC Penney? (13:22) Deals of the Week (17:33) Shadow office vacancy rates (22:48) Breaking down the HOPE act (31:34) A deep dive into the 1031 exchange (43:46) Concerns in the CLO market (48:01) No Black Friday shopping this year (51:50)

We welcome Donald Sheets, Managing Director at Broadshore Capital Partners to break down the current state of the CRE debt market. In a wide-ranging conversation, we discuss the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, underwriting office loans in this climate, evaluating investment opportunities, the CRE “lending pie,” and the current landscape of student housing. Don also shares his takeaways from a cross-country road trip adventure during the pandemic. Episode Notes: The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street (2:07) Who’s selling loans? (8:31) Pricing loans in the office market (11:15) Don’s cross-country pandemic road trip (16:43) What investments is the market offering? (22:05) Will the CRE lending pie shrink or grow? (28:41) Distressed asset potential in the multifamily space (33:20) The landscape of student housing and higher education (36:00)

We welcome Vivek-Anand Dattani, VP of Commercial Operations from Trepp’s London office, to examine signs of progress and peril in the US and European CRE and CLO markets. We also discuss the preliminary July CMBS delinquency data, revisit the retail-heavy CMBX 6 index, and look at the lasting impacts of The Dodd-Frank Act. Last but certainly not least, Joe McBride delivers a special ode to Winston Churchill. Episode Notes: Signs of progress and peril in U.S. CRE (3:35) What we’re seeing in Europe (10:26) Preliminary July CMBS delinquency data (21:44) The State of the European CMBS market (28:00) Revisiting the retail-heavy CMBX 6 index (34:18) The potential long-term global impact of remote work (41:27) Battered companies with CLO exposure (45:33) The 10 year anniversary of Dodd-Frank (50:56) The return of sports!!! (54:28) Joe’s ode to Winston Churchill (57:25)