The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

The TreppWire Podcast, A CRE Show
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Nov 4, 2022 • 50min

166. Will Floating-Rate Loans Sink Upon Maturity?, Delinquencies Rise, No Leaks in the Boat... Yet

This week, investors expected the interest rate increase, but the commentary was more hawkish than predicted. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the latest economic and CMBS data, highlighting the recent rise in delinquencies. In digging through the data, we found that there is about $300M worth of active "floating-rate" loans, so what is the story here? Then, we share green shoots and crabgrass for multifamily, office, and hotels.  Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Economic update (0:23) - CMBS delinquency report (10:10) - CMBS spreads (16:55) - Digging through the data (21:32) - Multifamily sale (28:03) - Multifamily headlines (33:43) - Student housing acquisition (35:57) - Hotel story (37:35) - Tech impact on office space (39:01) - Office news (40:55) - Shoutouts (45:57) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Oct 28, 2022 • 51min

165. Tech Turmoil Weighs on Markets; Will Falling CRE Prices Lead to Fed Pivot?

In this week's episode, we review mixed economic data, with a focus on the latest news for the technology sector and how it will impact CRE. We discuss reasons for optimism and pessimism, discuss CMBS spreads, a cap rate analysis, and hairline fractures for the multifamily market. We also share some office headlines and give an overview of NYC's Local Law 97.  Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic update (0:23) • Interest rates inflection point (8:20) • Digging into tech earnings (10:32) • Impact on CRE (17:25) • Optimistic or pessimistic? (20:12) • Cap rates analysis (26:37) • CMBS spread levels (30:45) • Multifamily cracks (32:32) • Office stories (40:19) • Hotel news (42:28) • Local Law 97 (43:28) • Shoutouts (45:45) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Oct 25, 2022 • 41min

164. Wading Through Some CRE Distress with Tony Yousif, SVN

In a special guest episode, we welcome Tony Yousif, Director of National Accounts at SVN. We dive into the latest in commercial real estate distress, with Tony sharing a boots-on-the-ground view of asset classes to watch, trends by geography, and the difference among types of lenders. Tony shares where the opportunities are and where some may get stuck in the mud. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Background (0:21) - Property type coverage (5:26) - Geographical trends (7:11) - What’s happening in multifamily? headwinds (9:05) - Typical timing for valuation requests and transactions (14:40) - What are lenders seeing? (17:53) - Is the extend and pretend appetite across the board? (25:35) - Office conversions (30:38) - Office occupancy sentiment (33:00) - Where's the opportunity right now? (35:48) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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23 snips
Oct 20, 2022 • 44min

163. Subleases & Givebacks Galore; $300 Billion of Upcoming Maturities; Where’s the Stress?

This week, we saw the 10-year yield hit its highest level since 2008. In this episode, we examine what was a rough week in terms of economic data but not for the markets, also highlighting sirens in housing, and the latest themes from bank earnings. In CRE, we go through a list of office sublease stories and we review the amount of loans maturing within the next 24 months.  Tune in now. Episode Notes: Bad economic data, markets powered through (0:23) Digging through the data: more maturities (9:25) Office subleases and crab grass (13:41) Stories to keep your eye on (19:56) Green shoots in CRE (27:56) Retail stories (38:25) Shoutouts (41:09) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Oct 14, 2022 • 41min

162. Rising Rates, Cost of Interest Rate Caps Threaten to Derail CRE; Top 5 Multifamily Markets

In this week’s episode, we examine how rising rates and the cost of interest rate caps are threatening to derail the commercial real estate market. Then, we dig through operational and origination statistics for multifamily across the top five markets and compare the data to the office sector statistics. We close by reviewing the latest office and retail headlines to watch. Episode Notes: Gloomy economic outlook(0:23) Perception of CPI (6:20) Labor problem (10:49) Mortgage rates (12:26) 101: Cost of interest rate caps (13:40) Digging through the data: top multifamily markets (23:13) Multifamily vs. office origination data (26:27) Office grabgrass (29:23) Mall stories: CMBX 6 loss and missed payments (35:26) Shoutouts (36:43) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Oct 6, 2022 • 50min

161. Digging Through the Data: Multifamily Cracks, CMBS Metrics, Bank Earnings Predictions

In this week’s episode, we search for signs to see if the economy is responding to the Fed’s medicine. In a segment called ‘Digging Through the Data,’ we examine underlying distress for multifamily, retail and lodging. We also provide an update on the CMBS market, reviewing delinquency rates and slowed issuance. Then, we share predictions for Q3 bank earnings. Episode Notes: • Economic news (0:23) • Multifamily distress (7:45) • CMBS delinquency report (13:13) • CMBS issuance (17:40) • Digging through the data: loan value(20:17) • Office news (22:44) • Office green shoots (30:10) • Retail headlines (33:53) • Q3 Bank Earnings predictions (41:37) • Shoutouts (44:10) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Sep 30, 2022 • 45min

160. Searching for Light in a Stormy Market, CRE Distress, Hurricane Exposure

This week, markets are in turmoil, the dollar is surging, and a currency crisis triggered a surprise move by the Bank of England. With all of that, we also can’t ignore the impact of Hurricane Ian. In this episode, we dive into the headlines, with a theme that when trust starts to evaporate, so does liquidity. We also review data surrounding true signs of CRE distress, map the exposure of $52 billion of CRE loans to the hurricane, and talk news for office, retail, and multifamily properties. Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic news (0:23) • Trust issue (10:36) • Hurricane Ian: CRE exposure (15:08) • CRE distress: the data (20:16) • Office positive news (26:26) • Bad CRE news (31:54) • Retail positives (38:15) • Shoutouts (41:37) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Sep 23, 2022 • 49min

159. CEO Warnings, Surging Interest & Cap Rates, Dot Plot Danger: Where Are Green Shoots?

While the latest interest rate hike was no surprise, markets reacted this week. In this week’s episode, we dive into the economic news to know: housing, rates, and big company news. In CRE, we preview an analysis of multifamily cap rates, dive into life insurance commercial mortgage returns and share the latest hotel, retail, and office stories. Episode Notes: Economic news (0:23) Hotels (18:09) Positive office developments (22:49) Office crabgrass (27:42) Brokers start your engines (37:41) Retail news (38:31) Trepp LifeComps Return Index (43:41) Shoutouts (45:27) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Sep 16, 2022 • 49min

158. Bleak Week: Mixed Bag of CRE & Economic Data; Inflation, Transactions, Trading Alerts

In a week full of bad news, there were some positive signs for the CRE market that shone through… and there’s also pickleball. In this week’s episode, we dive into the swath of economic data to digest including inflation, earnings, and stock moves. We cover retail trading alerts, multifamily news and cap rates, and office transactions and leases to watch in Manhattan. Episode Notes: Economic data to digest (0:23) Inflation and Barry Sternlicht comments (4:12) FedEx tenant news (11:01) The good news (13:00) Quantitative tightening (16:21) Retail trading alerts (18:26) Multifamily news (23:43) NY office stories (29:47) Industrial (42:19) Shoutouts (45:14) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Sep 10, 2022 • 45min

157. Can CRE Weather Looming Geopolitical Storms? Outlook for Remainder of 2022

In this week’s episode, we provide an update on the energy crisis in Europe and discuss how looming geopolitical risks may impact the commercial real estate market. In a post-Labor Day check-in, we dive into our outlook for the remainder of 2022, sharing thoughts, data, and stories that cover hotels, multifamily, office, and retail.  Tune in now. Episode Notes: • News out of Europe and geopolitical risks(0:23) • CRE Outlook for Remainder of 2022, hotels (11:24) • Multifamily outlook (15:06) • Industrial(18:24) • State of retail (19:21) • Office overview (24:11) • Office news from the week(28:03) • Retail stories (37:45) • Single-family rental market(40:56) • Shoutouts (43:02) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

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