The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

The TreppWire Podcast, A CRE Show
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Jun 16, 2023 • 48min

201. Optimism Hard to Find at CRE Event; Industrial Hitting a Wall?; Retail Owner Throws in Towel

This week, all eyes were on the inflation numbers, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and retail sales. In this episode, we dive into the macro news and discuss whether we think this is it for the CPI and Fed Funds Rate or if we’ll continue talking about it in the second half of the year. In CRE, we share takeaways from the annual CREFC conference in terms of issuance, price discovery, and predictions for the market. We also dive into an industrial demand story, analyze multifamily data, and note some big news in retail and office. Tune in now. Episode Notes: • CPI, Fed, retail sales (0:23) • CRE conference takeaways (7:58) • Industrial demand (15:20) • Multifamily: digging through the data (21:18) • Retail trading alert (29:28) • Mixed-use 101 (32:53) • Office stories (36:59) • Shoutouts (42:36)
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Jun 10, 2023 • 51min

200. Cutting Through the Haze; Looming Hotel Default Renews Lodging Concerns; More Office Subleases

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the Trepp team tries to cut through the haze (in the economic markets, CRE, and with regard to the smoke covering much of the Northeast). We discuss what may have seemed like a quiet week and what is really on the horizon. In property-type news, we dive into a story about a looming hotel default that is renewing concerns about the lodging market, and for office: there seems to be no end to the sublease news. Happy 200th episode of The TreppWire Podcast and thanks for listening! Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by Commercial Real Estate Direct: https://crenews.com/ Episode Notes: • Economic updates (0:23) • Loans paying off on maturity (9:45) • Hotel trading alert (12:18) • Positive stories for the hotel market (16:30) • Office green shoots (21:53) • Office crabgrass (27:15) • Retail sales (38:32) • Systemic bank risk (41:53) • Shoutouts (44:48) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jun 2, 2023 • 45min

199. Office Delinquencies Hit 5-Year High; Issuance Defies Debt Ceiling Drama; State of CRE Market

This episode is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/. In this week’s episode, we break down the shift in economic news that will be bringing us back to our regularly scheduled programming of interest rate decisions, inflation, and job numbers. In commercial real estate, we had a big week for data – we saw the issuance of a CMBS deal, which is defying the debt ceiling drama and we also saw CMBS delinquency readings that investors have been anticipating for months. In office, there are several sublease stories of note. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Economic updates: turning our attention back to other economic indicators (0:23) - CRE state of the market (7:43) - CMBS deal coming to market (9:00) - Can CRE operate in a frozen market? (14:21) - Delinquency report (18:16) - Office losses at banks (26:20) - Office stories to watch (28:06) - Retail sales (37:58) - Shoutouts (40:20) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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May 26, 2023 • 55min

198. Charting CRE Distress from Peak to (Silicon) Valley: TreppWire Recorded LIVE at NAIOP

In a special episode of our week-in-review podcast, the team shares a live presentation we gave at NAIOP Silicon Valley’s Capital Markets event. We have a data-driven review of what’s happening to commercial real estate in the region and across the U.S. We dive into data on the recent bank turmoil, delinquencies and distress across the country, loan maturities, lease renewals, occupancy, and more. Tune in now. If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to podcast@trepp.com. Episode Notes: - Economic update (0:23) - Silicon Valley: poised for rebirth? (4:07) - Silicon Valley challenges (8:43) - Bank data and distress (13:23) - First Republic’s collapse by the numbers (16:15) - Regional bank market share (19:40) - Delinquencies across the country (26:31) - Risk ratings (30:57) - Upcoming distress (33:44) - Loan maturities (34:59) - Sublease availability (39:43) - Occupancy and the knock-on effect (43:14) - Lease terms, renewals, and rent (47:24) - CRE stories to watch in Silicon Valley (50:00) - Shoutouts (54:02) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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May 19, 2023 • 43min

197. Debt Ceiling Deal Debate; CRE Poker Face: Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em; Office Special Servicing Moves

With slowing regional bank turmoil, all eyes shifted to the debt ceiling deal debate. In this week’s episode, we examine the latest economic news. Mike Flood of the Mortgage Bankers Association shares his perspective on the debt ceiling and bank regulation. In CRE, we saw several office loans transfer to special servicing, sublease stories, and comps. We also share retail green shoots and crabgrass, a hotel comeback story, and discuss our bank CRE concentration analysis. And in an ode to Sam Zell, we reference his mentality of knowing when to “hold ‘em” and when to “fold ‘em.” Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic update(0:23) • Debt ceiling thoughts: Mike Flood, MBA (6:45) • Bank executive testimonials (9:35) • Regulatory changes ahead (11:01) • Bank CRE concentrations (15:14) • Office special servicing transfers (18:19) • Sublease stories (24:10) • Office comps (27:58) • Retail crabgrass (30:02) • Retail green shoots (33:35) • Hotel comeback story(36:12) • Shoutouts (38:51) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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May 12, 2023 • 46min

196. Storm Brewing… CRE Issues May be Least of Concerns; Retail Extensions; Rental Rates 101

With concerns over the debt ceiling, credit tightening, and bank deposit runs, problems in commercial real estate may be the least of investors’ worries. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine regional bank concerns and some promising fresh inflation data. In CRE, we talk good news for suburban retail, retail extensions, and more sublease stories. We also break down quoted versus effective rent. Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic news (0:23) • Earnings (9:43) • Good news for suburban retail? (13:35) • Retail extensions (18:00) • Trading Alerts (21:23) • Negative office news: subleases (26:01) • Quoted vs. effective rent (32:51) • Office green shoot and crabgrass story (38:49) • Multifamily story (41:06) • Shoutouts (43:55) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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May 5, 2023 • 45min

195. Jittery Markets, More Bank Fallout, Office Comps

The yield on the 3-month treasury hit more than a 22-year high today, so, clearly, investors are jittery. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we explain what’s going on with the debt ceiling discussions, continued bank worries following the news of First Republic, and the economic uncertainty. In CRE, we cover the CMBS delinquency rate which held steady but revealed more concern for office, dive into comps and benchmarks for office, and review our Trading Alerts. Stick around to hear what ‘Siri’ says. Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Jittery market: debt ceiling, bank worries, economic uncertainty (0:23) • First Republic’s problems (9:23) • CMBS delinquency report (14:10) • Vornado pausing dividend (15:29) • Office stories (17:16) • CRE comps and benchmarks (20:06) • Trading alerts: sublease space, move outs (25:41) • Houston stories (32:30) • Multifamily news (35:31) • Shoutouts (41:39) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Apr 24, 2023 • 45min

194. Retail Apocalypse No More… Shifting Market Dynamics: TreppWire Recorded LIVE at ICSC

In a special episode of our week-in-review, the team shares a live presentation we put on for ICSC’s Continuing Education Michigan event, diving into the state of the retail market and the impact of macroeconomic events on commercial real estate. Here, we are joined by Emily D’Agostini Kunath of D’Agostini Companies to examine the “catchy” retail apocalypse theme, deciding if it still holds true in today’s market. We break down what current liquidity, lending, and capital issues mean for retail and decide where the opportunities lie. If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to podcast@trepp.com. Episode Notes: • Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity (1:40) • Retail stats (7:50) • Where was retail earlier this year? (13:05) • Strength of brick-and-mortar(16:30) • Store closings and bankruptcies(18:50) • Retail weaknesses: malls (20:22) • Street-level retail and crime (22:24) • Dispelling the retail myths (32:15) • Post-bank collapse: where is retail now? (34:18) • Headlines we’re watching: debt ceiling (36:30) • Detroit CRE sentiment (37:55) • Where are opportunities? (40:45) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
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Apr 20, 2023 • 35min

193. Investors Exhale After Bank Earnings, but Hold Breath Watching Office News...

This week, we have the Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, Orest Mandzy, joining to give us additional perspective within CRE. In this episode, we start with a market update, taking note of the data showing a softening economy. Then we take a look at housing starts and homebuilder sentiment, which remains negative. In CRE, the team reviews our latest Quarterly Data Review, examining the data and trends that shaped the market in Q1. We also take a deep dive into office news and discuss bank earnings and their impact. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Market Update 00:50 Housing Starts 5:52 Office News 15:14 Bank Earnings 26:36 Retail Updates 30:00 Quarterly Data Review Magazine 31:37 Shoutouts: 33:37 Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Apr 11, 2023 • 43min

192. Good Vibrations in a Shaky Market? Some Even in Office

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the team dives into the latest economic news and jobs data. Next up, we give an update on banks and give a sneak peek of Trepp’s Q1 Bank Earnings analysis. Then we sing the office blues but do find positive office news, with big office loans to keep on your radar, and then debate if in-office is coming back …again. Stick around to hear multifamily news and a preview of Trepp’s AI podcast. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Economic and job data (0:25) Update on Banks (7:07) Two CMBS Deals Priced (10:06) Return to office (13:57) Sublease and office moves (16:30) Big office loans to watch (22:35) Retail News (26:28) Multifamily Housing (36:05) Shoutouts (40:32) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

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