RenMac

RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be setting up nicely for a soft landing.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.

RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.

RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race.

Topics discussed include Biden's debate terms, encouraging inflation data, spending of Biden's billions, improving beta vs average momentum, peak in short rates, election year seasonality, and China resembling the U.S. in 2009.

RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.

RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.

RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be long in the summer months in a presidential election year, what is driving the increase in the 10yr yields, and the relationship between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ.

Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.

RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go away” doesn’t work; and how to take advantage of the summer trading months in a presidential election year.