RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Nov 22, 2024 • 19min

RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice

RenMac discusses:Latest developments with Trump appointmentsThe horserace for Treasury secretaryOngoing weakness in labor demandLow bulls in Treasuries are bullishImpact of political appointments on specific sectors
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Nov 15, 2024 • 31min

RenMac Off-Script: Solid but Cooling

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.
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Nov 8, 2024 • 25min

RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward
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Nov 1, 2024 • 31min

RenMac Off-Script: October Surprise

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end
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Oct 25, 2024 • 26min

RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued?

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.
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Oct 18, 2024 • 26min

RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.
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Oct 11, 2024 • 27min

RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump

Delve into the shifting polls hinting at Trump's rising popularity amid a low-key news cycle. Analyze the unique strategies candidates are using to energize their bases as the election looms. Explore how inflation and employment data are influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions. Unpack the potential market shifts post-election, particularly regarding tariffs and small-cap stocks. Plus, uncover the role of international tensions and former Presidents in rallying rural voters for upcoming electoral battles.
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Oct 4, 2024 • 26min

RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.
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Sep 27, 2024 • 20min

RenMac Off-Script: China Turns

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
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Sep 20, 2024 • 23min

RenMac Off-Script: Sticking the Landing

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.

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