RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Sep 16, 2022 • 13min
RenMac Off-Script: Claims vs Commodities
RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick’s travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.
Sep 9, 2022 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Offsides Overcompensation
The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the market cycle clock is tilting bullish, and how Rs are looking good to take the House but things are looking better for Ds to hold on to the Senate.
Sep 2, 2022 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Paying More For Less
The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterms, why the student loan aid announcement may not come to fruition, how companies may be overpaying for workers based on productivity levels, why the June low has a high probability of being the low for the cycle, and whether growing bearish sentiment is warranted.
Aug 26, 2022 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black Hole
Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.
Aug 19, 2022 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Rainy Days In Vegas & For The GOP
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.
Aug 12, 2022 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: A Summer of Skeptics
Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.
Aug 5, 2022 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Higher Highs and Lower Lows
The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.
Jul 29, 2022 • 20min
RenMac Off-Script: Slowdown vs. Recession
The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.
Jul 22, 2022 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S.
The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.
Jul 15, 2022 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Staring into the Abyss
The RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core services next, new Fed members impact on future rate decisions, markets looking beyond inflation to a recession, Biden's Saudi oil boost ask, and Manchin rules out tax hikes and climate bills in latest BBB talks.
