RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Jan 27, 2023 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Unlikely to Spontaneously Combust
RenMac discusses the 4th quarter GDP numbers, the unlikeliness of a near-term recession, the confirming indications from equities, the latest on the debt limit and next week’s important data.
Jan 20, 2023 • 13min
RenMac Off-Script: Tilting Towards Cyclicality
The RenMac team discusses the debt limit debate, the poor December economic data, why the narrative may still be moving in a positive direction moving forward, the tilt towards cyclicality, the impact of global green subsidies, the market pricing in 25bps hikes to get 5%, and market purgatory levels.
Jan 13, 2023 • 13min
RenMac Off-Script: Soft now, hard later?
The RenMac team discusses the DOJ’s classification conundrum, the latest consumer price inflation print, why the soft landing thesis might only be temporary, the improvement of discretionary against staples, and early momentum indicators.
Jan 6, 2023 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: How Low Can You Go?
The RenMac team discusses the latest in the speaker spectacle in the House, the latest payroll print, how the lower unemployment rate will make it harder to slow wage increases and alter the Fed’s trajectory, no momentum despite the Market Cycle Clock being in the bullish zone, cyclicals remain in the leadership position, why the government may be more of a tailwind to consumers, and the importance of 3700 number for the S&P 500.
Dec 16, 2022 • 13min
RenMac Off-Script: On the Recession Train Too Soon
The RenMac team discusses Trump’s decline and DeSantis’s rise amongst Rs in the polls, Congress kicking the gov’t funding can to next week, the Fed saying that recession is more likely next year, Neil’s skepticism that economic growth will slow significantly in the short-term, improving consumer discretionary conditions, bear market prevalence in the S&P, and why Boeing could be an economic growth engine next year.
Dec 9, 2022 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Tis the Seasonal
The RenMac Team discuss whether the new jobs claims data will impact the Fed’s moves, how seasonality impacts unemployment, stronger than expected PPI data, why Sinema said sayonara to the Democratic Party, Republican candidate quality costs them GA again, contrarian discretionary opportunity, and moderating sentiment despite the recent rally.
Dec 2, 2022 • 12min
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, Powell & PMI
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s speech, how the payroll report threw a gut-punch into the soft-landing story, why we’re still searching for a slowdown in the economy, the expansion in the consumer discretionary sector, why the bear market may not be over, Congress shifting to omnibus now that rail strike has been averted, the GA Senate race odds, and distortion and deterioration in the crypto markets.
Nov 18, 2022 • 13min
RenMac Off-Script: MAGA is Nada
The RenMac team discusses the implications of a divided government, why the economy might not be slowing as fast as some policymakers would prefer, why a weakening dollar could strengthen economic growth, what the trajectory of BBB spreads is saying, the puzzling breakout of industrials, and the importance of consumer discretionary to bull markets.
Nov 11, 2022 • 12min
RenMac Off-Script: Election and Inflation Surprises
The RenMac team discusses the election results, whether Trump will back out of his Tuesday announcement, Ron DeSantis R nominee prospects surging, the better-than-expected CPI report, how the Fed will respond, why laggards could lead leaders, and how Thursday lit the market match.
Nov 4, 2022 • 20min
RenMac Off-Script: Why Midterms Matter For The Fed
The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print and why it will not impact the Fed’s outlook, why the bigger risk may be the Fed underdoing it, whether Rs will have a good night or a great night, whether Biden’s speech on democracy may not resonate with voters concerned about the economy, what a divided Congress would mean for the Fed, why Powell is being set up to be the fall guy, energy, industrials, and financials relative strength, and the S&P’s response to both overbought and oversold positions.
