RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Jul 8, 2022 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed’s Hall of Mirrors
The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potential recession, yield curve peaking, tightening credit conditions, why the inflation rate may be the new Fed put as opposed to the stock market, Scuhmer’s resurrection of Ds’ reconciliation bill, and Biden’s battles with billionaires over his energy and economic policies.
Jul 1, 2022 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Recession Preferable To Inflation
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running much lower than CPI, reading the reaction function of the Fed, the potential for a political pause or a lower rate hike pre-Midterm, a Supreme Court setback for ESG investors, handicapping the 2022 midterms, and why healthcare remains a good defensive play.
Jun 24, 2022 • 11min
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Up With The Fed
The RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dismissing Russian invasion as the main driver of inflation.
Jun 17, 2022 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Panics
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.
Jun 10, 2022 • 11min
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Peak or Plateau?
Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.
Jun 3, 2022 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Another Goldilocks Jobs Report
The RenMac Team discusses the good news in the flattening unemployment rate, evidence building for the Fed to back off its 50bps pace, Yellen’s inflation omission admission, an improving global economic situation, defining peak inflation, and how the political die is likely cast ahead of November .
May 27, 2022 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Can Powell Pull A Maverick?
RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, stubborn EPS revisions, Trump’s message resonating more with Republican voters than he is, the hard versus soft landing debate in the economy and markets, and Neil enters the housing supply pool and a shout-out thanks to our veterans.
May 20, 2022 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Markets Utter the “R” Word
RenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivot later this year, how healthcare and energy perform post-peak inflation, and why the party primary results will impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.
May 13, 2022 • 12min
RenMac Off-Script: A Peek at Peak Inflation
RenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage formula and the impact on midterms.
May 6, 2022 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Economy Looking Better as Markets Look Worse
The RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the chance of a soft landing, energy industry and SPR politics, market turmoil and what to watch next week.
