RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Apr 7, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Give Fed Benefit of Time
RenMac discusses why the March employment report is a win for the soft-landing bulls, the Fed’s wait and see approach with a tightening bias, the outperformance of global equities, the intrinsic value of gold, the Taiwanese president’s “transit” trip to the US, and Xi’s diplomatic push into OPEC.
Mar 31, 2023 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Ham Sandwiches Can Be Indicted
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, why Powell’s next move is still more likely a hike after skipping May, the importance of housing, tech breaking out, why seasonality and sentiment are still trending in the right direction.
Mar 24, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: No Middle Ground in a Banking ‘Crisis’
Blurb The RenMac Team discusses the Fed’s 25 bps move, how one’s view of a banking crisis determines their outlook on future interest decisions, the politics of a pending Trump indictment, whether the Fed’s tolerance for inflation is higher now, why technology is breaking out, and whether REITs are so bad they’re good.
Mar 17, 2023 • 22min
RenMac Off-Script: Banking March Madness
The RenMac team discusses the impact of SVB collapse on the banking industry, how it is becoming politicized, whether SVB was a feature or bug of the Fed’s actions, why the Fed is likely to go 25 bps next week, deposit circularity, the befuddling bitcoin bounce, cyclicals performing better than defensives, and big tech breaking out.
Mar 10, 2023 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Neutral Needs To Be Higher
The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print, why the Fed’s work is not done, the higher bar for not going 50bps, why neutral needs to be higher, Biden’s revival of the Build Back Better budget request and why it is DOA with a Republican House, industrials continue to perform, discretionary is still intact, losing defensives like utilities and stapes, and banks are oversold.
Mar 3, 2023 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Psyched for Cyclicality
The RenMac team discusses the improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs, why a need to rebuild inventories could lead to strong manufacturing growth, how the rest of the world is following the early cycle script, the value vs. values debate regarding ESG on the Hill, the Supreme Court’s skepticism over Biden’s student loan relief plan, why the market cycle clock is in the bullish direction, the deterioration in defensives like health care, and reasons to get psyched for cyclicality.
Feb 24, 2023 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: An Anniversary Not Worth Celebrating
The RenMac team discusses the Ukraine anniversary, China’s increasing role in the conflict, Dow theory and the movement of averages for tomorrow, whether oversold conditions can hold, the return of NPV, how conditions could shift towards value, and why active could benefit over passive moving forward.
Feb 17, 2023 • 13min
RenMac Off-Script: February Can’t Cool the Data
The RenMac team discusses the new CBO debt limit “X-date” forecast, how Kevin McCarthy can use his Taiwan trip as leverage to get spending concessions from Biden, why the economic data is increasing the odds of the Fed raising interest rates closer to 6% this year, the post-breakout pause, improving credit conditions, and rate resiliency.
Feb 10, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Great Expectations
The RenMac team discusses Biden’s State of the Union address, 2024 implications, why the Fed is likely to maintain its higher-for-longer approach to interest rates, housing and Europe looking good despite expectations, why tech remains tricky outside of semis, and how good economic news next week might be bad for bonds.
Feb 3, 2023 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Trust the Thrust
The RenMac Team discusses China flying balloons over Montana, why the huge payroll number makes Powell look offsides, an optimistic outlook for autos, market haters on social media, the breadth thrust and why there is beauty in simplicity, and why the trend is moving in the bullish direction.
