RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Jun 16, 2023 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: The Powell Pause
The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recession risk, contained credit spreads, and the growing threat of a September spending shutdown in Congress.
Jun 9, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Incrementally Capitulating
The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defense spending, the politics and the precedent of the latest Trump indictment, market incrementalism towards cyclicality.
Jun 2, 2023 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Plenty of Payrolls
The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt limit debate, why semiconductors are a winner in the stock market, and bullish conditions in the market cycle clock for a new month.
May 26, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Ronning For President
The RenMac team discusses the debt limit calendar, why the onus is on the growth bears to justify their position, why housing could be more important moving forward, noncompliant credit markets, how the consensus consistently underestimates job growth, the weakness in China, and the Ron DeSantis campaign launch.
May 19, 2023 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Diffused
RenMac discusses why it’s increasingly likely a debt limit agreement is complete before the June 1 deadline, the entry of Florida Governor DeSantis in the 2024 race for the White House, the strong economic data over the last week and why the consensus is still offsides, and the breakout in software at the expense of materials.
May 12, 2023 • 23min
RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Drama
RenMac discusses the improving odds around a debt limit deal, how the latest inflation data bolsters the chances for a Fed pause this summer, the flukiness in jobless claims because of Massachusetts, why complaining about lack of breadth is really an excuse for underperformance, and gift ideas for Mother’s Day.
May 5, 2023 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Confidence Game
The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs blowout, why the Fed is less likely to cut now, the importance of nominal incomes, how the banking consternation is not causing a bigger market reaction, why breadth improves to match the market but not the other way around, little change in the put/call ratios, and the latest on the debt limit drama.
Apr 28, 2023 • 20min
RenMac Off-Script: Logic Isn’t Truth
The RenMac team discusses the view from London, the mixed message from breadth and international equities, strength in the housing market, the drag on inventories in 1Q23, why the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the rematch that few people want, and how a recession could be the bears worst nightmare.
Apr 21, 2023 • 19min
RenMac Off-Script: Homebuilder Highs
The RenMac team discusses Philadelphia vs. the Empire economic data, how crude oil and yields are exhibiting downtrend characteristics, whether the Fed’s next move after a pause would be a hike or a cut, homebuilder optimism, Neil’s love of nuance, the latest act in the D.C. debt limit drama, why Biden is betting on a rematch with Trump, and a potential bounce for banks.
Apr 14, 2023 • 20min
RenMac Off-Script: M2’s Declining Relevance
The RenMac Team is joined by financials/payments analyst Howard Mason to discuss the turmoil in the banking industry, what the latest data means for the Fed’s future moves (or lack thereof), the EPA’s aspirational EV emissions proposal, the declining relevancy of M2, and the ebullience in equities.
