RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Aug 25, 2023 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Fireworks in Russia not the GOP Debate
RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with the Prigozhin explosion.
Aug 18, 2023 • 21min
RenMac Off-Script: Retail Robustness
RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.
Aug 11, 2023 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Suckers for a Soft-Landing?
Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.
Aug 4, 2023 • 23min
RenMac Off-Script: Still In The Woods
RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China charts are looking better than their economic reports, whether the 2024 election will resemble 2020 or 2016, how Manchin’s third-party threat could help rather than hurt Biden-s re-election, the politics surrounding the Fitch downgrade, and the Japanese yen trade following the BoJ pivot.
Jul 28, 2023 • 19min
RenMac Off-Script: Precision vs. Accuracy
RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how relying on doubtful data and rigidity has led to capitulation, precision vs. accuracy, Mitch McConnell’s health, the increased impeachment inquiry odds following the Hunter Biden plea deal collapse, why extreme beta is more likely to be a liability than in asset, and keeping an eye on the yen.
Jul 21, 2023 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Betting on Beta
RenMac discusses how to adjust the different economic outlook scenarios based on recent data, why a third-party candidate would pull more votes away from Biden, how Biden’s green push is costing him the support of autoworkers (and Springsteen a song), and the risks of betting on beta.
Jul 14, 2023 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Lower Inflation = Less Fed Pressure
RenMac discusses how the latest inflation report will take pressure off the Fed and increases the odds of a soft landing, why bull steepening is more of a recession signal than an inverted yield curve, why markets reacted accordingly, whether Bidenomics will help or hurt inflation and Biden’s re-election effort.
Jul 7, 2023 • 15min
RenMac Off-Script: Keeping Dry Powder
Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this week. How cocaine-gate is overshadowing the “Bidenomics” push? Why the latest payroll print shows no signs of recession and is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking two more times this year? All in today’s episode.
Jun 30, 2023 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Bull Boost
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.
Jun 23, 2023 • 16min
RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Performance
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a housing trifecta, how a presidential election could complicate future Fed moves, the politics of the Hunter Biden plea deal, and why utilities and BBB spreads are supporting a bullish outlook.
