RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Jul 7, 2023 • 15min

RenMac Off-Script: Keeping Dry Powder

Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this week. How cocaine-gate is overshadowing the “Bidenomics” push? Why the latest payroll print shows no signs of recession and is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking two more times this year? All in today’s episode.
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Jun 30, 2023 • 14min

RenMac Off-Script: Bull Boost

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.
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Jun 23, 2023 • 16min

RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Performance

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a housing trifecta, how a presidential election could complicate future Fed moves, the politics of the Hunter Biden plea deal, and why utilities and BBB spreads are supporting a bullish outlook.
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Jun 16, 2023 • 16min

RenMac Off-Script: The Powell Pause

The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recession risk, contained credit spreads, and the growing threat of a September spending shutdown in Congress.
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Jun 9, 2023 • 17min

RenMac Off-Script: Incrementally Capitulating

The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defense spending, the politics and the precedent of the latest Trump indictment, market incrementalism towards cyclicality.
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Jun 2, 2023 • 16min

RenMac Off-Script: Plenty of Payrolls

The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt limit debate, why semiconductors are a winner in the stock market, and bullish conditions in the market cycle clock for a new month.
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May 26, 2023 • 17min

RenMac Off-Script: Ronning For President

The RenMac team discusses the debt limit calendar, why the onus is on the growth bears to justify their position, why housing could be more important moving forward, noncompliant credit markets, how the consensus consistently underestimates job growth, the weakness in China, and the Ron DeSantis campaign launch.
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May 19, 2023 • 18min

RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Diffused

RenMac discusses why it’s increasingly likely a debt limit agreement is complete before the June 1 deadline, the entry of Florida Governor DeSantis in the 2024 race for the White House, the strong economic data over the last week and why the consensus is still offsides, and the breakout in software at the expense of materials.
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May 12, 2023 • 23min

RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Drama

RenMac discusses the improving odds around a debt limit deal, how the latest inflation data bolsters the chances for a Fed pause this summer, the flukiness in jobless claims because of Massachusetts, why complaining about lack of breadth is really an excuse for underperformance, and gift ideas for Mother’s Day.
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May 5, 2023 • 15min

RenMac Off-Script: Confidence Game

The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs blowout, why the Fed is less likely to cut now, the importance of nominal incomes, how the banking consternation is not causing a bigger market reaction, why breadth improves to match the market but not the other way around, little change in the put/call ratios, and the latest on the debt limit drama.

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