RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Nov 3, 2023 • 23min
RenMac Off-Script: Nonlinear Risks
RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.
Oct 27, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Fed vs. GDP
RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.
Oct 20, 2023 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Don’t Follow the Easy Path
RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.
Oct 13, 2023 • 22min
RenMac Off-Script: House of Horrors
RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alternative to stocks.
Oct 6, 2023 • 23min
RenMac Off-Script: Grasping At Straws
The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.
Sep 29, 2023 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Cracking Gold
The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.
Sep 22, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: No Capitulation
The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonality, and why Trump is going to the MI and not the second GOP debate.
Sep 15, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: 3Ss (Shutdown, Strike, and Student Loans)
The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether short-term soft-landing enthusiasm now could lead to inflationary consequences later, why reduced volatility in line with credit conditions, intra-market correlation, and the decline in Bitcoin..Also, please join us Monday at 11am for a call with former World Bank President David Malpass. CLICK HERE to Register
Sep 8, 2023 • 21min
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Following Financial Flow
The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.
Sep 1, 2023 • 14min
RenMac Off-Script: Data Deluge
Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.
