RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Jan 12, 2024 • 29min
RenMac Off-Script: Canceling That 70s Show
RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and today, and SEC chair Gary Gensler’s reluctant Bitcoin ETF approval.
Jan 5, 2024 • 18min
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Point To Productivity
RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.
Dec 29, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Yes, There is a Santa Clause
Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.
Dec 22, 2023 • 21min
RenMac Off-Script: Trash vs. Treasure
RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.
Dec 15, 2023 • 20min
RenMac Off-Script: Escape Velocity
RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.
Dec 8, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Entrenched Disinflation
RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-year yields and BBB spreads, how the latest Republican presidential debate did little to change the race, the link between aid to Ukraine’s border and the southern border, and why ’95 might be the best comparable for the Fed.
Dec 1, 2023 • 23min
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Cuts: When NOT If
RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.
Nov 24, 2023 • 17min
RenMac Off-Script: Yield Dependency
Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
Nov 17, 2023 • 19min
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Affirmation
RenMac discusses the impact of inflation data on policy, real yields as predictors of nominal rates, Taiwan's significance in Biden-Xi meetings, and Congress avoiding difficult decisions.
Nov 10, 2023 • 24min
RenMac Off-Script: Losing Control
The podcast discusses the impact of the recent election results on Republicans and Democrats, potential Republican candidates and their stance on foreign policy, the possibility of Nikki Haley running for president, consolidation in the market and the impact of treasury bond auctions, the correlation between medical care and inflation, the decline in bond yields affecting equity markets, and discussions on banking regulations, Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping, government shutdown, technical analysis, and social media connection.
